Could Burnham do it?

My previous comments on the Makerfield by-election were made public recently. It seemed that the by-election was a gift to Reform. They had won every ward in the constituency in the recent local elections. People don't take well to unnecessary by-elections. Reform were chucking everything at it. But after a week of campaigning, it is becoming less of a Reform certainty. Doubts have crept into my thinking about the likely outcome.

Though Reform have poured people into the constituency, their candidate is becoming less credible as each day goes by. Meanwhile, the challenge from the left has self-destructed. The Green Party announced their candidate in the morning. By afternoon tea, the Green candidate was gone. Meanwhile, Restore Britain has announced they are contesting the by-election. An initial poll puts their candidate on 7%, more than the Labour lead over Reform. In other words, Restore is becoming a road block to Reform's winning the by-election. It doesn't matter they are getting just a few percent. That's all it takes under Britain's ridiculous first past the post voting system to influence and shape the result.

I don't for a moment believe that Andy Burnham is now cruising to victory. The Reform threat to Labour in Makerfield is still there but it is no longer the foregone conclusion of a Reform victory that looked obvious at the start of the campaign.

Just remember one thing however. A week is a long time in politics. And we've got 4 weeks to polling day.