Nuremburg

We had a half day off from farming and politics today. Instead we headed to Newcastle to see the Nuremburg film before it is no longer shown. There were three of us in the cinema - me, David and a bloke who sat at the far end of the theatre away from us. The film itself was quite absorbing and interesting. It clearly demonstrates the dangers posed to society by individuals within it who wish to destroy democracy and grab power for themselves. Nuremburg put the Nazis on trial. Let's hope 80 years later we haven't forgotten the lessons.

After watching the film, we went on a shoe shopping trip. When I got to the last full council meeting in November, I discovered the sole of my shoe had split. And with a funeral coming up on Friday which I will be attending, I had no choice but to part with some cash for a new pair of shoes. I can't complain about the old pair. I got 16 years of wear out of them. And they will be repaired shortly.

Council by-election analysis - Labour's meltdown gets worse

I thought Labour's position through the autumn could not get worse. Well, I was wrong. Typically Labour had been losing half their share of the vote. Now they are losing three quarters in some contests. Pity the Labour candidates who have been given the poison chalice of standing in a council by-election knowing they are heading for an absolute drubbing. Meanwhile, the Greens continue to show no significant progress in the groundwar. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems were 3 seats short of a full complement in the contests held last week, though this is an increase in the number of candidates compared to the last time these wards were contested. The good news for the Lib Dems was that they continued to gain seats.

There was a reasonable sized crop of by-elections last week so lets start with Penyrheol in Caerphilly.

• This was a Plaid Cymru seat where the Welsh Nationalists already had a firm hold on the ward. They hold is now even firmer, rising by 6% to a luxuriously comfortable 60%.
• Reform came in 2nd but their vote share at 27% is towards the bottom of their usual range of 25-35%.
• 3rd placed Labour dropped from a reasonable 24% to a mere 7%. In other words, they were close to losing three quarters of their vote share.
• Coming in 4th place, the Conservatives dropped from 10% to 4%. Stoney ground for the Conservatives here.
• Bringing up the rear, the Lib Dems were battling in a ward where they had not previously fielded a candidate. Stoney ground for the Lib Dems as well.

The key point about this result is that putting in a strong local campaign can see off Reform. In this instance it was PC putting in the effort in the ground campaign. Meanwhile, yet again there is no Green candidate.

Whitburn and Blackburn, West Lothian Council

• Reform's first victory in an election in Scotland, they took 32%, towards the higher level of their current bandwith. Up to now, Reform by-election winners were nonexistent. They have now broken through the Reform glass ceiling. Remember, Scotland used single transferable vote in local elections but this was not enough to stop Reform.
• The SNP were second but despite STV, they were unable to capitalise on Labour's ongoing meltdown.
• Labour were defending the seat but came in 3rd place, with 17% and only 4% ahead of an independent.
• There were 8 candidates in total in this by-election. Cons, Lib Dems, Greens and another independent were just footnotes in this contest.

Seaton, East Devon Council

• The Lib Dems in Devon are on a roll. I read on Mark Pack's blog that they have won 13 by-elections in Devon in a row. That total includes this contest where the Lib Dems took another seat from the Conservatives, with 41%.
• Reform came second on 31%, beaten back by the strong showing of the Lib Dems. As with Caerphilly with PC, it demonstrates that Reform can be beaten when there is a strong campaign against them.
• Defending Conservatives were in 3rd place with 21%. In come contests, the winner got less than this. Kemi Badenoch has experienced a slender rise in her poll ratings but it was of no help in Seaton. 
• Notice the lack of both Labour and the Greens. The Green surge is now a flop.

Redhall and Lingfield, Darlington

• This one is a bit closer to home for me. It was in the North East, my home region.
• A Reform gain from Labour, giving them their first councillor in Darlington. At 37%, they were 2% above their usual bandwith. 
• Lib Dems came joint second on 17% in a ward that is new territory for them. This is a reasonable performance given this was a standing start.
• The Conservatives matched the Lib Dem performance to the exact vote (both got 157). What neither the Conservatives nor Lib Dems managed to do was to established themselves as the challengers to Reform in the ward. That was the bonus that helped Reform to a comfortable win.
• Labour, the defending party, came in 4th though they weren't that far behind (they got 152). Nevertheless, coming 4th shows how extensive is the Labour meltdown. Last time they had 54%, this time their vote was more like a rapidly melting glacier, down 37% to 17%.
• Greens on 10% and an Independent on 1% brought up the rear.

Armitage with Handsacre, Lichfield

• Hold onto your seats everyone! This one is for the history books. The Conservatives held on and did so comfortably with 47%. The Conservatives live to fight another day (just).
• Reform clocked up 2nd place with 32%, again towards the top end of their typical performance.
• Labour at 9%, Lib Dems on 7% and Greens on 5% were little more than spectators from a distance. It is possible that the Conservatives had managed to squeeze the other parties in the battle to beat Reform. A rare example of the Conservatives playing the squeeze vote card effectively.

There were 9 by-elections last Thursday and I still have to work my way through 4 of them. That's a job for the coming days.

Swalwell action day

 

Another Saturday and therefore another Gateshead Lib Dem action day. This time it was in Swalwell. I took a patch with 211 doors and delivered them in 40 minutes. While this sounds impressive, it should be pointed out that the patch I did was predominantly terraces with no front gardens. A bit of a doddle!

I then used the opportunity to go to Birtley North and finish a patch I had started delivering last Saturday. Lots of gardens and gates to get past in this patch so not as easy as Swalwell.

Cutting cake at the Tynesider

 

The cake that Gateshead Lib Dems had made as a replica of the derelict but still standing Flyover was moved to the Tynesider pub last night where Lib Dem Leader in Gateshead, Ron Beadle, gave Labour a lesson on how to demolish a structure! Cake was handed out to the pub's customers and Ron was called to the DJ's box to give an impromptu speech along the lines of Labour being unable to organise anything! (I put if politely.)

Let him eat cake

 

The Gateshead flyover closed to traffic a year ago today. The closure was an emergency measure because the 1960s structure was found to be unsound and bits were dropping off the edge. Labour Leader of Gateshead Council, Martin Gannon, told the BBC in March that the concrete eyesore would be demolished by the end of the year. Alas, with only 19 days left, it's looking like Martin's prediction is going to be somewhat off target.

To mark the anniversary of the closure and non-demolition, Gateshead Lib Dems had a cake made in the image of the flyover. Lib Dem Leader of the opposition Ron Beadle cut the cake in front of local journalists (who were the first to taste it.) Behind him, still standing, was the actual flyover.

The cake has now been taken to the Tynesider on Gateshead High Street. Lib Dems will be there tonight to help demolish and eat it. Martin Gannon is invited. We'll let him eat cake.

Safely predicted

 

I was in the Lib Dem office today to do a bit of printing. We have a Gateshead Lib Dem media event coming up tomorrow in Gateshead so the printing was for a handout flyer. We will be marking a year since the Gateshead Flyover was closed. Gateshead Labour leader Martin Gannon said in March that "I can safely predict [the Flyover] will be gone by the end of this year." (BBC 18th March 2025) It is, of course, still there as a grandiose landmark paying tribute to 1960s concrete architecture. With only 20 days of the year left, Martin's prediction may just miss the target.

Meanwhile, I am avoiding the temptation to safely predict that Martin will be gone at the local elections in May next year. 

Meeting Robo Dog

 

Yesterday at Gateshead Civic Centre there was a briefing for councillors on equipment that can be used to help older people wth dementia continue to live at home rather than go into a care facility. While most of the equipment had a passing resemblance to remote controls, ipads and mobile phones, my attention was drawn to this little critter which I dubbed Robo Dog. It is designed for people now suffering from dementia but previously had a pet dog. Robo Cat is also available. Apparently Robbo Cat can purr but not claw the furniture. No feeding needed and no need to clean up puddles and poo. 

I haven't kept dogs for over 40 years but I currently have two cats (called Bug and Eve) which do claw the furniture and need a constant supply of cat meat and water. I wonder if they can learn from Robo Cat on how to behave. Alas, I don't believe there are any sheep or goat versions!

Beating the flu bug

 

Last night we had the Gateshead West Lib Dem dinner at the Soho Tavern in Kibblesworth. Throughout the day I received a steady stream of messages from people apologising for not being able to make it to the dinner. The culprit was the flu bug that is circulating at the moment. Nevertheless, some of us made it to the restaurant. An excellent meal.

Blast from the past

 

While sorting some papers in my office at home recently, we came across this blast from the past. It was my election leaflet from April 1992 when I stood in Hexham, then the neighbouring constituency to where I lived in Gateshead. The haircut with a  left parting did not survive the election for long. The parting shifted to the middle. A few years later, the whole style changed again to what I have now - short with no parting. Sadly, the colour changed from brunette to grey, or as we prefer to say, silver! The good news is I still have the tie! The bad news is that I am slightly more enlarged around the waist so the suit had to go! It is a bit of a shock to the system to think this election was a third of a century ago. There are members of the Lib Dem group, and others aspiring to join us as Lib Dem councillors on Gateshead Council, who weren't even born when I went down to defeat in Hexham.

Beamish comes to Sunniside

 

The next meeting of Sunniside History Society will be on 7th January 2026. A speaker from the museum will give a talk about the recently added attractions, particularly in the 1950s town. As usual, all residents are welcome.

Birtley north action day

 

Another Saturday and another Gateshead Lib Dem action day. Today we were in Birtley North and Lamesley to deliver the latest Focus. Deliveries will continue over the next few days.

RIP Andy

 

It was a sad day today for Gateshead Liberal Democrats. Our former chair and treasurer, Andy Coleman, passed away suddenly in November, aged only 48. His funeral was today. Andy had been a key activist over the past few years. He did not want to be a councillor but the focus of his activities was within the party itself. Rather than be a candidate, he did the job of election agent. He was an organiser, a person who took on important roles thereby freeing up the councillors to campaign.

I remember at my wedding over two years ago, he took on the task of organising various events including ensuring the prosecco was poured and everyone had a glass.

Andy is pictured above, 4th from the left in the photo above taken at North East Lib Dem regional conference last year. At 6ft 2 inches he stood out in a crowd.

By-election analysis: gain, loss, holds

Yesterday's council by-elections were a mixed crop. Lib Dems had a gain, a loss and 2 holds. The overall picture is unchanged from last week - Labour and the Conservatives are doing appallingly badly, the momentum is still behind Reform, the Greens barely registered (but they inadvertently helped Reform win in one contest) and the Lib Dems, as previously, had a mixed night. So here are the details.

Exmouth Halsdon in East Devon

• A Lib Dem hold though with a 4% drop in vote share. Nevertheless, the Lib Dems saw off a Reform challenge.
• Reform stood for the first time and jumped into 2nd place.
• The Conservatives came in 3rd. In most by-elections where they stood recently, their share of the vote has typically halved. This was not the case in this by-election. The Conservatives dropped from 30% to 26%. Given what has happened to them in other recent contests, East Devon must have brought them a small dose of cheer.
• The Greens did not stand last time but in this by-election, they decided to field a candidate who took 10%. Their appearance may have been the caused, at least in part, of the small drop in the Lib Dem share.
• Note the absence of a Labour candidate. Are Labour generally struggling to find candidates?

Winkleigh in Torridge

• A Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives with a modest 10% majority and an 8% increase in the share of the vote.
• Reform were 2nd having not previously stood. They took 33% of the vote, towards the upper end of what they typically get in council by-elections (25-35%). Their failure to win is likely to be the result of the Lib Dems soaking up Labour, Green and possibly some Conservative voters.
• The Conservatives came 3rd and last, having started in 1st place. Their vote share halved, something that is now a regular occurrence in council by-elections.

Tudor in Watford

• An area where the Lib Dems are very active, and the result shows it.
• A Lib Dem hold with an increased share of the vote and over half the votes cast. This was despite there being 4 other candidates.
• Reform had previously stood and had taken 10%. This time they added 18%. At 28% they were at the lower end of typical Reform expectations.
• The Conservatives came 3rd but as is now typical, they lost half their vote share.
• 4th placed Labour did not lose half their vote, as they have typically done in other by-elections. Instead, they lost two-thirds.
• The Greens came fifth, having not stood last time. The non-existent "Green surge" didn't help here. They came last with 5%.
• A key point about this by-election is that it demonstrates where the Lib Dems are strong on the ground and active, challenges from other parties can be beaten back.

Long Eaton North in Derbyshire

• A Reform hold, by the skin of their teeth. Their majority was 23, over the Conservatives.
• The Conservatives very nearly pulled a rabbit out of the hat. In pre-Reform times, this would have been an easy win for the Conservatives. It's interesting to note that Labour were on 22%, the Greens on 12% and Lib Dems on 6%. There was a significant Lab/Green/Lib Dem vote but it was clearly reluctant to vote Conservative tactically to beat Reform. In effect the Conservatives handed Reform the seat.
• The final candidate was an independent on 5%. It could be that this helped split the anti-Reform vote even further, and with such a tight majority, the Independent may actually have decided the outcome.

Stapleford in Broxtowe

• The appearance of 3 additional parties makes changes in shares of the vote more challenging to interpret.
• Labour were defending but managed to record a result so bad, it makes many of their other results look reasonable. They had previously been in contention by, yet again, they lost half their share of the vote and came 4th.
• The contest was won by the Browtowe Alliance which had not previously contested the ward.
• Reform were 2nd with 22%, well below their usual range.
• The Lib Dems were 3rd on 13%, a drop of 8%. Clearly there was a failure by the Lib Dems to project themselves as the clear challenger.
• The Conservatives lost half their vote share and came 5th.
• There was another independent who came last. This muddied the water further.

Nunthorpe in Middlesbrough

• A very disappointing result for the Lib Dems as they had a successful defense rate of over 90%. Reform took the seat by the skin of their teeth - 13 votes.
• The Conservatives had previously been in contention but dropped to 3rd place. Their share dropped by a third, an improvement on their typical performances recently.
• Labour were never in contention and what little vote they had was squeezed further. They came 5th and last.
• The Greens stood for the first time and got 5%. Given how close the Reform majority was, it is likely that the Green intervention gave the seat to Reform. Vote Green, get Reform.

So, overall we can see that Labour are starting to fail to contest seats, the Greens are not surging, Reform is continuing to pick up seats, the Conservatives are still losing considerable vote share (as are Labour), beware of Independents pulling off unexpected tricks and the Lib Dems are generally doing well but can suffer an occasional shot across their bows.

Statistics

I've just been looking at the statistics for my blog. In November, there were 46,742 viewings. Overall, there have been 1,780,942 viewings of the blog and posts since I first set up the blog in February 2006. By next year I hope to have exceeded 2 million though possibly not by the blog's 20th birthday in February. Finally, I have produced 3802 posts so hopefully I should go over 4000 in 2026. There will be plenty to write about as we have all-out elections in Gateshead. Since there is a likelihood of a political earthquake in Gateshead next year, I will be kept busy writing new material.

A minute's silence for Colin

Sunniside History Society met last night for the first time since our former chair, Colin Douglas (pictured above), passed away. We held a minutes silence in his memory before starting the meeting proper.

As this was the December meeting, we had our Christmas quiz and a buffet. As is now our normal practice, I wrote the history quiz. There were four rounds: soap operas, British Prime Ministers, local buildings that are no longer with us, and historical individuals with a link to the North East. The quiz went down well.

A Tory/Reform pact?

One of the national newspapers is reporting that Farage is open to some kind of electoral pact at the next general election between Reform and the Conservatives. The suggestion is that each side would stand down in constituencies where they are weaker than the other. I suspect this will never happen. Reform is a coalition. Part of that coalition is a grouping made up of former Labour voters who are socially conservative and are typically on a lower income. They are people who feel they have been abandoned by Labour. They have never voted Conservative in the past and have no intention of voting Conservative in the future. These voters are mainly in the former Red Wall constituencies.

Were there to be a Tory/Reform pact, that Reform coalition could be blown apart. So far, Farage has managed to hold together his Thatcherite wing of former Conservative voters on one side and more left-leaning former Labour voters on the other. This latter group would not rush to vote Conservative. It already looks bad to Labour Reform voters that Reform is being used as a lifeboat for former Tory MPs. If the recent trickle of former Tory MPs to Reform becomes a torrent, Reform will look more and more like Tory Party mark 2. And that could spell the end of the Reform coalition.

Belated by-election results

A pile up of Christmas fairs, two sets of Christmas lights switch on ceremonies and a day long manifesto meeting meant my weekly by-election analysis is a bit late (well actually very late!) So let's start with the results.

Hunstanton ward in Kings Lynne and West Norfolk

• Another Reform gain, this time from the Independents. Reform had not previously stood.
• Lib Dems came in second, only 46 behind Reform, and like Reform, had not previously stood in the ward.
• Another ward where the victor took less than 30%.
• The Independents were defending but dropped to 3rd place.
• The Conservative performance was dire - dropping from 41% to 18%.
• Not to be outdone by the Conservatives, Labour also put in a dire performance, dropping from 21% to 3%.
• Note the absence of a Green candidate.

Barnoldswick in Pendle

• A comfortable hold for the Lib Dems who started in a really strong position. Improving on that is difficult so the 1.5% increase in vote share was the icing on the cake.
• Reform had not previously stood. They came second at 26%, at the bottom of the range of typical share for Reform (25-35%).
• Reform threw the kitchen sink at the ward but their high hopes were squashed.
• Labour and Conservatives were heavily squeezed.
• Again, note the absence of a Green candidate.

Hetton in Sunderland

• A once solid Labour citadel, for about a decade Labour have been crumbling on Sunderland, which neighbours my home town of Gateshead. Labour have been losing seats in all directions in local elections. I hear via various routes that Labour expect to be swept away in Sunderland in the local elections next year. That's the background for the Hetton by-election.
• Reform won the by-election from Labour who sank to 3rd place, behind an Independent.
• The Reform share was 46%, comfortably ahead of their typical 25-35% range.
• Not only were Labour in 3rd place, their vote share was more than halved, a trend typical across the country in by-elections.
• The Lib Dems came in 4th place with 4%, an increase of 2%. The ward is not on any credible Lib Dem hit list so a 2% increase was interesting.
• Still no Green candidate.

So the overall picture has not changed over the past few weeks. The Green surge is not happening outside of opinion polls (and some of them show the Green vote wilting). The Conservatives and Labour are continuing to lose substantial vote share. The Lib Dems are doing well in the battle with Reform but need to up their game - two weeks in a row now Reform have pipped the Lib Dems to the post. Nevertheless, where the Lib Dems constantly work the patch, they are successfully seeing off the Reform challenge. And the Reform bandwagon continues. Some recent opinion polls show Reform's vote slipping. There is no evidence for this in council by-elections but let's see what happens over the coming weeks.

Name that party

There was a great deal of comedy coming out of Liverpool over the weekend. Boycotted on the first day to avoid ranting comrade Corbyn's speech to the Your Party, Zarah Sultana made her appearance on Sunday instead. It seems that the Sultana and Corbyn show has had its plug pulled even before they had both agreed to be in the same room as each other. Instead, a politburo of worthies will run the party. Let's fantasize for a moment and imagine Your Party have won the general election. The politburo have moved into 10 Downing Street and they are having endless meetings and votes on the new wallpaper and who gets the best bedroom. Nothing would get done.

As for the name, "Your" is totally meaningless. A party's name tells the world broadly what the party stands for. Calling yourself the "Your Party" does nothing of the sort. It looks like a name that has been agreed because no one could agree on anything else.

Meanwhile, some attending the conference got as far as the main entrance before they were turned away as they are members of the Socialist Workers' Party. There was all sorts of talk about storming the platform. Quite what that would achieve is not clear, other than creating more comedy moments.

So, will this party survive? I suspect that if it makes it to the general election, it will be wiped out. In the meantime, it will split the Labour and Green vote. With British politics so fragmented at the moment, it is rather difficult to work out who will be the beneficiary of this split.

Manifesto meeting

 

Gateshead Lib Dems held another meeting on Sunday to work on the manifesto for the local elections next May. We already had a first draft as a result of our manifesto meeting held in the summer. The meeting yesterday saw us go through the draft in fine detail. Some additions were made, some sections were revised or removed. We had 30 members at the meeting, held at Sunniside Social Club. We also had a session looking at our key messages.

We will be having another meeting in the new year. In the meantime, we will have lots of Focuses to deliver.

Excellent buffet enjoyed by all.