The by-election tea leaves

There was a by-election in Penn Hill in Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole on Thursday. The result was:

Lib Dem - 1,278, 43.6% (+0.9)

Con - 764, 26.1% (+1.0)

Reform - 521, 17.8% (new)

Labour - 135, 4.6% (-6.7)

Restore - 106, 3.6% (new)

Green - 65, 2.2% (-6.5)

Ind1 - 55, 1.9% (new)

Ind2 - 7, 0.2% (new)

So what do the by-election tea leaves have to say?

The Conservatives seemed rather excited about this contest. It was once a Conservative held ward and they pushed the claim that the battle was between Conservatives and Reform. They claimed the Lib Dems couldn't win. The reality was somewhat different. The Conservatives came second but the battle was between them and the Lib Dems. Reform came third. There was an interesting intervention from Restore. Add together Reform and Restore votes and the non-Conservative right would still be in 3rd place.

Labour and Greens each lost most of their vote share. I don't have enough information to explain why both lost votes. It could be down to either local or national issues (the Greens in particular are having problems as a result of their anti-semitic vote at their conference.)

Thumbs up to Bournemouth Lib Dems. 44% is a now strong vote share in this age of multi-party politics.