Belated by-election results

A pile up of Christmas fairs, two sets of Christmas lights switch on ceremonies and a day long manifesto meeting meant my weekly by-election analysis is a bit late (well actually very late!) So let's start with the results.

Hunstanton ward in Kings Lynne and West Norfolk

• Another Reform gain, this time from the Independents. Reform had not previously stood.
• Lib Dems came in second, only 46 behind Reform, and like Reform, had not previously stood in the ward.
• Another ward where the victor took less than 30%.
• The Independents were defending but dropped to 3rd place.
• The Conservative performance was dire - dropping from 41% to 18%.
• Not to be outdone by the Conservatives, Labour also put in a dire performance, dropping from 21% to 3%.
• Note the absence of a Green candidate.

Barnoldswick in Pendle

• A comfortable hold for the Lib Dems who started in a really strong position. Improving on that is difficult so the 1.5% increase in vote share was the icing on the cake.
• Reform had not previously stood. They came second at 26%, at the bottom of the range of typical share for Reform (25-35%).
• Reform threw the kitchen sink at the ward but their high hopes were squashed.
• Labour and Conservatives were heavily squeezed.
• Again, note the absence of a Green candidate.

Hetton in Sunderland

• A once solid Labour citadel, for about a decade Labour have been crumbling on Sunderland, which neighbours my home town of Gateshead. Labour have been losing seats in all directions in local elections. I hear via various routes that Labour expect to be swept away in Sunderland in the local elections next year. That's the background for the Hetton by-election.
• Reform won the by-election from Labour who sank to 3rd place, behind an Independent.
• The Reform share was 46%, comfortably ahead of their typical 25-35% range.
• Not only were Labour in 3rd place, their vote share was more than halved, a trend typical across the country in by-elections.
• The Lib Dems came in 4th place with 4%, an increase of 2%. The ward is not on any credible Lib Dem hit list so a 2% increase was interesting.
• Still no Green candidate.

So the overall picture has not changed over the past few weeks. The Green surge is not happening outside of opinion polls (and some of them show the Green vote wilting). The Conservatives and Labour are continuing to lose substantial vote share. The Lib Dems are doing well in the battle with Reform but need to up their game - two weeks in a row now Reform have pipped the Lib Dems to the post. Nevertheless, where the Lib Dems constantly work the patch, they are successfully seeing off the Reform challenge. And the Reform bandwagon continues. Some recent opinion polls show Reform's vote slipping. There is no evidence for this in council by-elections but let's see what happens over the coming weeks.