A Tory/Reform pact?

One of the national newspapers is reporting that Farage is open to some kind of electoral pact at the next general election between Reform and the Conservatives. The suggestion is that each side would stand down in constituencies where they are weaker than the other. I suspect this will never happen. Reform is a coalition. Part of that coalition is a grouping made up of former Labour voters who are socially conservative and are typically on a lower income. They are people who feel they have been abandoned by Labour. They have never voted Conservative in the past and have no intention of voting Conservative in the future. These voters are mainly in the former Red Wall constituencies.

Were there to be a Tory/Reform pact, that Reform coalition could be blown apart. So far, Farage has managed to hold together his Thatcherite wing of former Conservative voters on one side and more left-leaning former Labour voters on the other. This latter group would not rush to vote Conservative. It already looks bad to Labour Reform voters that Reform is being used as a lifeboat for former Tory MPs. If the recent trickle of former Tory MPs to Reform becomes a torrent, Reform will look more and more like Tory Party mark 2. And that could spell the end of the Reform coalition.

Belated by-election results

A pile up of Christmas fairs, two sets of Christmas lights switch on ceremonies and a day long manifesto meeting meant my weekly by-election analysis is a bit late (well actually very late!) So let's start with the results.

Hunstanton ward in Kings Lynne and West Norfolk

• Another Reform gain, this time from the Independents. Reform had not previously stood.
• Lib Dems came in second, only 46 behind Reform, and like Reform, had not previously stood in the ward.
• Another ward where the victor took less than 30%.
• The Independents were defending but dropped to 3rd place.
• The Conservative performance was dire - dropping from 41% to 18%.
• Not to be outdone by the Conservatives, Labour also put in a dire performance, dropping from 21% to 3%.
• Note the absence of a Green candidate.

Barnoldswick in Pendle

• A comfortable hold for the Lib Dems who started in a really strong position. Improving on that is difficult so the 1.5% increase in vote share was the icing on the cake.
• Reform had not previously stood. They came second at 26%, at the bottom of the range of typical share for Reform (25-35%).
• Reform threw the kitchen sink at the ward but their high hopes were squashed.
• Labour and Conservatives were heavily squeezed.
• Again, note the absence of a Green candidate.

Hetton in Sunderland

• A once solid Labour citadel, for about a decade Labour have been crumbling on Sunderland, which neighbours my home town of Gateshead. Labour have been losing seats in all directions in local elections. I hear via various routes that Labour expect to be swept away in Sunderland in the local elections next year. That's the background for the Hetton by-election.
• Reform won the by-election from Labour who sank to 3rd place, behind an Independent.
• The Reform share was 46%, comfortably ahead of their typical 25-35% range.
• Not only were Labour in 3rd place, their vote share was more than halved, a trend typical across the country in by-elections.
• The Lib Dems came in 4th place with 4%, an increase of 2%. The ward is not on any credible Lib Dem hit list so a 2% increase was interesting.
• Still no Green candidate.

So the overall picture has not changed over the past few weeks. The Green surge is not happening outside of opinion polls (and some of them show the Green vote wilting). The Conservatives and Labour are continuing to lose substantial vote share. The Lib Dems are doing well in the battle with Reform but need to up their game - two weeks in a row now Reform have pipped the Lib Dems to the post. Nevertheless, where the Lib Dems constantly work the patch, they are successfully seeing off the Reform challenge. And the Reform bandwagon continues. Some recent opinion polls show Reform's vote slipping. There is no evidence for this in council by-elections but let's see what happens over the coming weeks.

Name that party

There was a great deal of comedy coming out of Liverpool over the weekend. Boycotted on the first day to avoid ranting comrade Corbyn's speech to the Your Party, Zarah Sultana made her appearance on Sunday instead. It seems that the Sultana and Corbyn show has had its plug pulled even before they had both agreed to be in the same room as each other. Instead, a politburo of worthies will run the party. Let's fantasize for a moment and imagine Your Party have won the general election. The politburo have moved into 10 Downing Street and they are having endless meetings and votes on the new wallpaper and who gets the best bedroom. Nothing would get done.

As for the name, "Your" is totally meaningless. A party's name tells the world broadly what the party stands for. Calling yourself the "Your Party" does nothing of the sort. It looks like a name that has been agreed because no one could agree on anything else.

Meanwhile, some attending the conference got as far as the main entrance before they were turned away as they are members of the Socialist Workers' Party. There was all sorts of talk about storming the platform. Quite what that would achieve is not clear, other than creating more comedy moments.

So, will this party survive? I suspect that if it makes it to the general election, it will be wiped out. In the meantime, it will split the Labour and Green vote. With British politics so fragmented at the moment, it is rather difficult to work out who will be the beneficiary of this split.

Manifesto meeting

 

Gateshead Lib Dems held another meeting on Sunday to work on the manifesto for the local elections next May. We already had a first draft as a result of our manifesto meeting held in the summer. The meeting yesterday saw us go through the draft in fine detail. Some additions were made, some sections were revised or removed. We had 30 members at the meeting, held at Sunniside Social Club. We also had a session looking at our key messages.

We will be having another meeting in the new year. In the meantime, we will have lots of Focuses to deliver.

Excellent buffet enjoyed by all.

3 Christmas fairs

 

On Saturday I visited three local Christmas fairs. As already reported, I went to Whickham Library fair in the morning (see photo above), taking 2 of my goats with me to help raise funds. I popped into the building as well to say help to everyone and have a look at what was for sale. By midday the clock was ticking so we packed up the goats, took them back to the farm and then headed to the Whinnies Community Garden in Sunniside for the fair they were holding. (See photo below.)

The final event of the day was the Friends of Sunniside Christmas fair at the Sidegate Gallery in Sunniside. It was tipping down when I walked there and my fear was that the weather would keep people away. I didn't need to be pessimistic. The place was packed. 

My two ward colleagues, Councillors Marilynn Ord and Jonathan Mohammed, were at the event as well. We have been attending the Friends of Sunniside meetings over the past year to help and advise them so we certainly weren't going to miss the Christmas event.

I had high hopes of a win on the Christmas quiz. Alas, it was not to be. I was beaten by one point by Revd Glen MacNight!

Goat fundraising

 

As we have done for many years, we took two of our goats to Whickham Voluntary Library on Saturday for the Christmas fair.  We had lots of questions about them from people going to the fair and from those visiting the local shops. A collecting tin was strategically placed next to the goats. The end result was £119 raised for the Library. Not a bad sum!

Whickham South Focus delivery completed

 

Earlier this month we had an action day in Whickham South and Sunniside ward. At the end of it there were 2 patches left to deliver which I took. My plan was to deliver them a couple of days later. The "couple of days" stretched to a couple of weeks! Council meetings, meetings about the Sunniside Christmas tree, campaign meetings and the weather all conspired to delay the delivery. I eventually got the Focuses delivered on Tuesday this week. Job done! 

The lead story was about the return of post office facilities to the Whickham South area. We also had articles about the Whickham Christmas tree lights switch on, our advice surgeries, Rectory Lane traffic lights and Greggs expanding in St Mary's Green.

RIP Colin

 

Local history in the Whickham and Sunniside area has lost one of its greatest figures. On Sunday Colin Douglas passed away. Colin had been one of the founders of the Sunniside History Society in 1992 and a mainstay of the organisation for over 20 years. He discovered the bell pits at Lotties Wood, Sunniside and was one of the people behind the Fugar Project which drew out the history of the Washingwell/Watergate area. Colin also persuaded me to take on the role of chair of the Sunniside History Society when he stepped down from the role a decade ago.

I attended Colin's funeral this morning. I promised his family that the History Society would do something next year to commemorate Colin and his work for local history.

The photo above was taken at the launch of the Fugar Project shortly after I had taken over the role of chair.

Lights, camera, action

 

I filmed this the very moment the Christmas lights were switched on in Whickham yesterday.

Whickham lights switch on

 

We had a packed out event in Whickham yesterday when the Christmas tree lights were switched on in Church Green. I was there as a steward. I reckon over 500 people attended, mainly kids from the local schools. A great time was had by all.