A comeback by Boris Johnson? Don't make me laugh! The suggestion that the disgraced former PM could come back as Conservative leader to save them from oblivion are doing the rounds at the moment. Such stories are a measure of how far the Conservatives have sunk but for Johnson to come back, he needs to overcome some very high hurdles.
Firstly, he needs to get back into Parliament. A current Conservative MP would have to step down to create a vacancy. It is impossible to imagine Badenoch willingly letting an MP go just so that a person gunning for her job could be returned to Parliament.
Secondly, Johnson would have to win the nomination. That is not a foregone conclusion though admittedly, given the febrile state of the Conservative membership, he would probably win selection were he to throw his hat in the ring.
Thirdly, Johnson would have to win the by-election. This is probably the biggest hurdle for him to leap. Given the paucity of safe Conservative seats, it is likely that any by-election in a Conservative constituency will see an opposition win.
But let's suppose these hurdles are overcome and Boris is back! His 4th hurdle would be to engineer a coup to get rid of Badenoch. I doubt she will be a pushover but it is possible to remove her as Leader.
Which brings me to the 5th hurdle - winning the leadership election. Would Conservative MPs really take a punt on Johnson when they are in the middle of an existential crisis?
Okay, so let's suppose the impossible has happened and Johnson has become Conservative Leader. Would he be an asset to the Conservatives or would he repel the voters? In 2019, he was arguably an asset and led his party to its biggest election win since 1987. The tide of public opinion however turned against him in 2022. Hurdle no. 6 is the general election due by 2029. If the Conservatives believe they can win an election led by Johnson, they must be living in cloud cuckoo land.
But stranger things have happened.....!
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