Sunday, October 28, 2018

Could Labour MPs save May's Brexit plans?



This is another of my thoughts set to video while I am stuck at the wheel of my car: could Theresa May be saved by Labour MPs? There is constant talk of her being gone within days. Ever since her shoot-her-own-foot decision to go for an early election, headlines of her being deposed have never been far from the front pages. Yet, a year and a half since then, she is still there. Her ability to cling to power is really quite something.

So, can she get her Chequers Brexit plan through Parliament. Under the current Parliamentary arithmetic and taking into account rebellious Tory Brexit MPs (and possibly rebellious Remainers as well) it is looking like she is toast. But there are two matters to consider. Firstly, there is always a great deal of noise about rebellions before they happen and there is a tendency for the figures of government MPs going through the opposition lobby to be somewhat inflated. Nevertheless, if there is a vote on Chequers, any Conservative rebellion could bring it crashing down.

Secondly, what about the Labour rebels. The dinosaur tendency has already saved May on Brexit legislation votes. They have not been punished by the Labour whips. There could now be a further Labour rebellion, but not just by the dinosaurs such as Blyth MP Ronnie Campbell. There is another group in Labour to consider - the looking-over-their-shoulder wing of the party, the Caroline Flints of the world. They claim to be Remainers but like May, they are now pushing the Brexit side of the debate. I suspect they could be sufficient enough in numbers to swing a Parliamentary vote.

And I suspect any actions in supporting the Chequers deal may not put them into conflict with Corbyn. He knows that were there to be an election and he were to win (not a done deal by any means given Labour are behind in most polls), he would have to negotiate a deal with virtually no time left and with no other weapons in the armory than the Tories have. Surely it's better for Corbyn to let the Tories do the hard work, get a Brexit package passed on which he could never make any improvements while he makes a noise about how bad things are but never puts forward a serious alternative.

This scenario relies on Labour MPs rebelling to support the Conservatives. Given the lack of activity by Corbyn on the People' Vote issue, his turning a blind eye to a Labour rebellion could save May's skin again (and saves his own from having to lead a disastrous government with no Brexit alternative.)

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