4 candidates in battle for Whickham North

Nominations for the Whickham North and Swalwell by-election closed at 4pm today. There are 4 candidates in the running - Labour, Conservatives, Greens and Lib Dems. Susan Craig is the Lib Dem candidate. Missing from the line up are Reform. Their absence was a bit of a surprise given they fielded a candidate in the Bridges by-election who, ironically, lives in Whickham North!

The absence of Reform has forced me to think again about the possible outcomes. I previously said that Labour dropping to third behind Reform was a possibility. Obviously not any more but the Greens' impact on the Labour vote may be something to keep an eye on. And will there be a Conservative revival? I think this is unlikely at the moment.

So saddle up for yet another electoral contest in Gateshead. By the time the by-election is held (24th October) we will have been in election campaigning mode for nearly 10 full months in 2024.

Sunniside Scarecrows

 

This is just a bit of fun but scarecrows will be populating Sunniside in late October. People are encouraged to take part by making their own scarecrow and putting it into their front garden or on display in their front window for everyone to see.

It's likely that mine will be modeled on me, given the scruffy clothes I often wear while mucking out my animals!

Sunniside scarecrows was first held last year and was a great success.

Conspiracy theorists at the Civic Centre

 

Gateshead has had more than its fair share of conspiracy theorists in recent years. The borough is home to the crackpot claim that street lights are fitted with 5G and are part of a "kill grid" designed to kill everyone. It seems not to have worked. We are still here! As are the conspiracy theorists pedaling other wacky claims. Many of them cheated the street light death rays to get to the Civic Centre for a demonstration last week. Anti-vaxers, haters of mainstream media, fluoride conspiracists and so on. I wonder if there were any attendees who believed other conspiracy theorists are actually part of a bigger conspiracy against the people! Now that would be funny!

Conference video diary Monday 16th September 2024

 

My first full day at the Lib Dem conference in Brighton. Fringe meetings, training events and conference debates attended. The best fringe meeting of the conference was held in the evening - the British Berry Growers Association!

No herding of cats needed - Lib Dem MPs take to the stage in Brighton

 

How long does it take to get 72 Lib Dem MPs onto the platform at Lib Dem conference for Ed Davey's speech? The answer is 2 minutes. No herding of cats needed as all the MPs were disciplined and went where they were told. We have certainly moved on from 2019 when all our MPs could have fitted into a camper van!

"All hope has gone" as Labour councillor goes independent

Yesterday brought news that Jane McCoid, Labour Councillor for Lamesley in Gateshead, has resigned from Labour and gone independent. The change does not alter the balance on the Council (Labour 47, Lib Dem 17, Independent 1 and 1 vacancy in a Lib Dem held seat). What was of more interest is the reasoning for her leaving Labour.

She joined Labour "when there was hope, and in my eyes all hope has gone." Labour's decision to axe the winter fuel allowance for most pensioners came in for heavy criticism. She described it as "an attack on vulnerable people". She was also critical of the decision to keep the 2-child benefit cap, the removal of which "would help to lift children and their families out of poverty." Meanwhile, Starmer's acceptance of freebie clothes did not go down well, at a time when some parents are struggling to cloth their children.

There have not been many resignations and defections during my 37 years on Gateshead Council. Normally, when they do happen, it often becomes apparent that the cause of the resignation boils down to personal rather than political issues. I get the impression this is not the case with Cllr McCoid. It seems this is a case of genuine difficulty with the direction of her own government. In many ways she reflects the discomfort many in the Labour party feel about the Starmer government. Jane McCoid has taken the decision to leave Labour. Is this just a flash in the pan or are others likely to follow?

Whickham North and Swalwell by-election

We have another by-election in Gateshead. On 24th October, Whickham North and Swalwell will go to the polls. This is a seat we are defending. Sonya Hawkins, who has represented the ward for 12 years, was promoted at work in the summer, making it difficult for her to attend meetings and give the role the full attention it deserves. She also has increased family caring responsibilities. She therefore took the decision to step down. Our candidate is Susan Craig. 

The result of the last election (May 2024) was:

• Lib Dems 1331
• Labour 614
• Conservatives 204
• Greens 149

Majority 717.

Historically, this was a Labour seat but they first lost to us in 1992. We then hoovered up the other two seats in the ward and it has remained Lib Dem ever since. Nevertheless, in 2011 Labour made Whickham North and Swalwell their top target in the North East and we held on by just 24 votes. Ever since then, Labour's vote has been a glacier in an age of global warming, melting away gradually.

The complicating factor in the by-election will be Reform, assuming they stand. At the last local elections, Reform stood in only one ward in Gateshead - Chowdene. If they do stand in the by-election, from whom will they take votes? There are parts of the ward which most people would describe as "traditional Labour". Could Reform grab some of those? This is an interesting question because if Reform are able to reach out to traditional Labour voters, and soak up a few Conservatives, Labour could fall to 3rd place. This would be a disaster for Labour in Gateshead and could put pressure on Labour Councillors to give Labour Leader Martin Gannon the boot.

This is only one of a number of scenarios and admittedly it is the most extreme. Nevertheless, it is a possibility. The Bridges ward by-election earlier this month may give us clues as to possible outcomes. The Green vote took a tumble though in Whickham North in May, they start from 4th rather than 2nd place. The Conservatives once held a seat in Whickham North. 42 years ago, in an all-out election, they squeezed in by a handful of votes to take one of the 3 seats from Labour. The following year they lost it. There is no sign of any Conservative activity or revival. In Bridges they were crushed, coming 5th. I suspect they will suffer something similar in Whickham North.

And finally, the first Lib Dem Focus since the announcement of the vacancy was delivered on Saturday 14th September. Sadly, I was unable to help as I was at the Bowes Agricultural Show. However, the whole ward was delivered in my absence in one day.

Conference video 15th September 2024

 

My conference video diary from Sunday 15th September - I had missed the first day of conference because I had been at an agricultural show on Saturday 14th. So on Sunday I arrived at Brighton in the evening just in time to get to the rather crowded councillors' reception where Ed Davey was speaking. Sadly I was stuck at the back of the room with lots of taller people in front of me!

Conference moves on to Harrogate

Brighton Lib Dem conference is behind us and so we now look ahead to next year. I haven't heard anything about the venue for Autumn but in Spring, we are heading to Harrogate. I am a bit disappointed that we are not in York, a city that is only an hour away by train for me. I also love the history of York and often use conference in the city as an opportunity to explore it. Nevertheless, Harrogate is a town with which I have some affinity. I worked there for Harrogate MP Phil Willis in 1997 for 6 months. We can also celebrate holding conference in Harrogate because it again has a Lib Dem MP. Tom Gordon picked up the seat from the Conservatives in July with a sturdy majority of over 8,000. Interestingly, Labour came 4th in July.

We can only dream of conference coming to Gateshead. Though the Glass House (formerly The Sage) hosted spring conference in 2012, the long awaited convention centre, which could host the bigger autumn conference, is still just a cleared site with not even a brick having been laid.

Final by-election photos

I didn't have time to sort the following photos taken on polling day last week in the Bridges by-election in Gateshead. So here they are a few days late. They were taken on polling day.

Cllr Paul Diston near one of the main roads in the ward. The diamond posters were seen by hundreds of people.

It rained in the afternoon. Fortunately, the shower did not last long though it was long enough to give Cllr Amanda Wintcher a soaking.

Historic Liberalism: I couldn't resist the opportunity to take a photo of myself in the street named after  William Gladstone, the greatest Victorian Liberal Prime Minister.

Good to see window posters on display for Lib Dem candidate Jonathan Aibi.

Delivering the polling day leaflet.

Conference photos

 Lib Dem conference ended yesterday and so I headed north to get home. Here are some of the photos I took during my stay in Brighton.

Ed Davey's speech on Tuesday with the MPs seated behind him on the podium. It almost took as long as the speech just to get them all into the allocated places. That's what comes of having 72 MPs!

In the days when we had only 11 MPs, getting a full set of Lib Dem mugs was quite cheap. That's not the case now.

Remember this for next year - get to the National Farmers Union fringe meeting early or otherwise be stuck at the back.

Nothing political about this but the sunset over Brighton on Sunday was quite stunning.

Best fringe was the British Berry Growers. Samples gladly accepted.

I wasn't the only person from Gateshead to attend conference. Jamie Rickelton was there as well, doing the job of a conference steward.

Rising star and deputy leader Daisy Cooper gave a moving speech on Monday.

Me outside the Grand on Sunday evening, having just arrived at conference.

That's it folks!

Definitely a Lib Dem conference!

It's the last day of conference in Brighton and I am back in the main hall for the debate on rivers, sewage and water companies. Yesterday we had a debate on fair votes. This is very definitely a Lib and Dem conference!

As I write this, the motion on sewage has been passed and we are now on to reports from the Parliamentary parties, both Commons and Lords. For the first time in a long time, there is much interest in the reports. I guess that's a result of gaining 61 MPs at the general election! 

Reviewing the general election

I arrived last night at Brighton just in time for the local government /Ed Davey reception. A bigger room would have been useful as we were packed shoulder to shoulder. Afterwards I headed out for food and then returned to the hotel, feeling rather knackered. After all, 7 weeks solid on the Bridges by-election, running the farm, days of prep for the Bowes Agricultural Show and a journey to Brighton all took their toll.

So, feeling suitably refreshed this morning, I have made my way through the crowds of fleece and sandal wearing Lib Dems to get to the consultation on the general election. This is turning into a useful discussion. While it is recognised by speakers that the targeting strategy worked very well in July, many are saying that we need to look at how we move forward especially in Labour held seats. Music to my ears! 

This debate is just the start of the consultation process. It runs for the next few weeks. I will likely be making my own submission. 

Off to conference

Lib Dem conference started in Brighton yesterday but I missed it as I was at the Bowes Agricultural Show in Co Durham. So today I am heading south on the train using my Senior Citizen's railcard to make the cost of the tickets that bit more affordable! I have my reading matter for the journey: 2 recent copies of the BBC History Magazine. I should be in Brighton later today.

Greens crushed in Gateshead by-election

 I am now home from the Bridges by-election count in Gateshead. The result was:

• Labour 320
• Lib Dem 255
• Green 253
• Reform 166
• Conservative 53

Turnout was a disappointing 17%.

The key changes from May are that the Lib Dems jumped from 4th to 2nd place. Labour held on but their majority is now just 65 in a ward they had previously regarded as a stronghold. Though Labour only just made it over the finishing line in first place, the main losers in Bridges were the Greens. They had high hopes of a victory as they had run Labour relatively close in the May local elections in the ward. They were certainly looking excited when they turned up for the count but their fall from 2nd to 3rd place was a crushing blow for them. Bridges was their only target ward in Gateshead. They looked like a deflated whoopy cushion as they limped away after the declaration.

Reform scored 16%. This is the first time they have contested Bridges. It is not clear from whom they have taken their votes though I suspect quite a few came from both Labour and Conservatives. Note the Conservative total, just 55. The rest of Reform's vote may have come from people who don't normally vote in local elections but this time have come out for Reform.

The crushing of the Greens means that Gateshead Council continues to be made up of Labour and Lib Dem councillors. No other party is strong enough to get elected in the borough.

And finally, I do hope that the Labour candidate Robert Waugh is okay. He was not at the count tonight to accept his election as councillor and I hope he has not gone down with any injuries or illness which kept him away from his moment of victory.

Bridges by-election forecasts

I'm just home after a day of slogging my way through Bridges ward for the by-election. I will be back to Gateshead Civic Centre later this evening to attend the count. Unlike many elections, I find this one rather difficult to predict as there are a number of knowns. Reform are standing for the first time. The Lib Dems have fought the ward hard for the first time (we usually just have a paperless candidate.) Given the quantity of literature we have produced for this campaign, "paperless" is definitely not the applicable description now. The ward was previously a Labour stronghold and their campaigning (indeed any party's campaigning) was somewhat limited. In the local elections in May, Bridges was the Greens' only target ward in Gateshead. They didn't win but they cut into Labour's majority. So from this mix we have to try to predict the result. 

Here are the different possible results.

1)Labour hold. Given the history of the ward, this should be the most likely outcome. However, Labour haven't exactly covered themselves in glory recently. The High Street is a mess, the convention centre planned for the Quays hasn't even got as far as being a building site and large areas of cleared land sit idle. Their choice of candidate hasn't helped. He lost his seat in Saltwell to the Lib Dems in 2023 and was defeated in Low Fell and Whickham South wards by the Liberal Democrats. Bridges is his 4th ward. But Labour are usually entrenched here.

So a Labour hold is possible but not with the surety of previous contests.

2)Green gain. Given the result in May, the Greens should be hopeful of a gain. Labour's majority over them is 290 (16%) so it is not marginal but neither is it safe for Labour. If the Greens don't win Bridges, they will have nowhere else to go in Gateshead, having abandoned their only other target of Crawcrook and Greenside. Lib Dem campaigners who have crossed paths with Greens on the campaign trail have told me the Greens are very confident, based almost entirely on the result in May. We shall see.

3)Lib Dem gain. The Lib Dems have not campaigned hard before in Bridges but an 8 week campaign using literature and campaign techniques usually employed in our top targets may have turned around Lib Dem prospects in the ward. A Lib Dem gain is still an outside chance but not one that can be discounted.

4)Labour coming 3rd. This would have been regarded as a fantasy story in previous contests but it can no longer be discounted. Labour may lose some of their support to Reform and their government have not made friends by axing the winter fuel payments for pensioners not on pension credit. The 2 child cap has also gone down badly.

Greens and Lib Dems have been slogging it out in the ward. Has one of them managed to push ahead as the challenger to Labour, or have both Lib Dems and Greens bitten chunks out of Labour,s vote. Labour have not helped themselves by running an uninspiring campaign which was slow to get off the ground.

So with so many unknowns and new variants, predicting this one is challenging. We will know the actual result by midnight.

Farron photos

 

To add to the video from yesterday, here are a few of the photos of those helping in the Bridges byelection with Tim Farron MP.

Tim Farron MP in Gateshead

 

On Saturday 7th September 2024, MP Tim Farron met Lib Dem campaigners battling Labour to win the Bridges by-election in Gateshead. Tim gave an impromptu speech covering how Labour had won the general election by default but there was no great enthusiasm for Starmer. He also wished local campaigners a successful campaign before heading to meet local voters with by-election candidate Jonathan Aibi.

Reform's by-election leaflet

 

We keep a close eye on opposition literature in the Bridges by-election in Gateshead. Today I'm having a close look at the Reform Party's publication. There is frankly not much to write about. The leaflet has very little to say. Let's at least start with the imprint. It fails to show the name of the party and the name of the candidate though presumably the agent and candidate are the same person. Smacked wrists for that. The reference to "The Brexit Party" is a bit confusing as I thought that organisation had stopped functioning and was replaced by "The Reform Party". And then there is the call to "Save Britain" though from whom or what is not explained.

I was somewhat amused by the call for local issues to be sent to the candidate. One of the ways to make contact is via an email address which includes "blaydonandconsett". Though Blayon is in Gateshead, it is at the other end of the borough to Bridges. And Consett is over the border in Co Durham! So not very local.

The leaflet was found on the ground, hence the photo rather than a scan. Time to sweep it up along with all the other rubbish!