Bridges by-election forecasts

I'm just home after a day of slogging my way through Bridges ward for the by-election. I will be back to Gateshead Civic Centre later this evening to attend the count. Unlike many elections, I find this one rather difficult to predict as there are a number of knowns. Reform are standing for the first time. The Lib Dems have fought the ward hard for the first time (we usually just have a paperless candidate.) Given the quantity of literature we have produced for this campaign, "paperless" is definitely not the applicable description now. The ward was previously a Labour stronghold and their campaigning (indeed any party's campaigning) was somewhat limited. In the local elections in May, Bridges was the Greens' only target ward in Gateshead. They didn't win but they cut into Labour's majority. So from this mix we have to try to predict the result. 

Here are the different possible results.

1)Labour hold. Given the history of the ward, this should be the most likely outcome. However, Labour haven't exactly covered themselves in glory recently. The High Street is a mess, the convention centre planned for the Quays hasn't even got as far as being a building site and large areas of cleared land sit idle. Their choice of candidate hasn't helped. He lost his seat in Saltwell to the Lib Dems in 2023 and was defeated in Low Fell and Whickham South wards by the Liberal Democrats. Bridges is his 4th ward. But Labour are usually entrenched here.

So a Labour hold is possible but not with the surety of previous contests.

2)Green gain. Given the result in May, the Greens should be hopeful of a gain. Labour's majority over them is 290 (16%) so it is not marginal but neither is it safe for Labour. If the Greens don't win Bridges, they will have nowhere else to go in Gateshead, having abandoned their only other target of Crawcrook and Greenside. Lib Dem campaigners who have crossed paths with Greens on the campaign trail have told me the Greens are very confident, based almost entirely on the result in May. We shall see.

3)Lib Dem gain. The Lib Dems have not campaigned hard before in Bridges but an 8 week campaign using literature and campaign techniques usually employed in our top targets may have turned around Lib Dem prospects in the ward. A Lib Dem gain is still an outside chance but not one that can be discounted.

4)Labour coming 3rd. This would have been regarded as a fantasy story in previous contests but it can no longer be discounted. Labour may lose some of their support to Reform and their government have not made friends by axing the winter fuel payments for pensioners not on pension credit. The 2 child cap has also gone down badly.

Greens and Lib Dems have been slogging it out in the ward. Has one of them managed to push ahead as the challenger to Labour, or have both Lib Dems and Greens bitten chunks out of Labour,s vote. Labour have not helped themselves by running an uninspiring campaign which was slow to get off the ground.

So with so many unknowns and new variants, predicting this one is challenging. We will know the actual result by midnight.