By-election analysis: gain, loss, holds

Yesterday's council by-elections were a mixed crop. Lib Dems had a gain, a loss and 2 holds. The overall picture is unchanged from last week - Labour and the Conservatives are doing appallingly badly, the momentum is still behind Reform, the Greens barely registered (but they inadvertently helped Reform win in one contest) and the Lib Dems, as previously, had a mixed night. So here are the details.

Exmouth Halsdon in East Devon

• A Lib Dem hold though with a 4% drop in vote share. Nevertheless, the Lib Dems saw off a Reform challenge.
• Reform stood for the first time and jumped into 2nd place.
• The Conservatives came in 3rd. In most by-elections where they stood recently, their share of the vote has typically halved. This was not the case in this by-election. The Conservatives dropped from 30% to 26%. Given what has happened to them in other recent contests, East Devon must have brought them a small dose of cheer.
• The Greens did not stand last time but in this by-election, they decided to field a candidate who took 10%. Their appearance may have been the caused, at least in part, of the small drop in the Lib Dem share.
• Note the absence of a Labour candidate. Are Labour generally struggling to find candidates?

Winkleigh in Torridge

• A Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives with a modest 10% majority and an 8% increase in the share of the vote.
• Reform were 2nd having not previously stood. They took 33% of the vote, towards the upper end of what they typically get in council by-elections (25-35%). Their failure to win is likely to be the result of the Lib Dems soaking up Labour, Green and possibly some Conservative voters.
• The Conservatives came 3rd and last, having started in 1st place. Their vote share halved, something that is now a regular occurrence in council by-elections.

Tudor in Watford

• An area where the Lib Dems are very active, and the result shows it.
• A Lib Dem hold with an increased share of the vote and over half the votes cast. This was despite there being 4 other candidates.
• Reform had previously stood and had taken 10%. This time they added 18%. At 28% they were at the lower end of typical Reform expectations.
• The Conservatives came 3rd but as is now typical, they lost half their vote share.
• 4th placed Labour did not lose half their vote, as they have typically done in other by-elections. Instead, they lost two-thirds.
• The Greens came fifth, having not stood last time. The non-existent "Green surge" didn't help here. They came last with 5%.
• A key point about this by-election is that it demonstrates where the Lib Dems are strong on the ground and active, challenges from other parties can be beaten back.

Long Eaton North in Derbyshire

• A Reform hold, by the skin of their teeth. Their majority was 23, over the Conservatives.
• The Conservatives very nearly pulled a rabbit out of the hat. In pre-Reform times, this would have been an easy win for the Conservatives. It's interesting to note that Labour were on 22%, the Greens on 12% and Lib Dems on 6%. There was a significant Lab/Green/Lib Dem vote but it was clearly reluctant to vote Conservative tactically to beat Reform. In effect the Conservatives handed Reform the seat.
• The final candidate was an independent on 5%. It could be that this helped split the anti-Reform vote even further, and with such a tight majority, the Independent may actually have decided the outcome.

Stapleford in Broxtowe

• The appearance of 3 additional parties makes changes in shares of the vote more challenging to interpret.
• Labour were defending but managed to record a result so bad, it makes many of their other results look reasonable. They had previously been in contention by, yet again, they lost half their share of the vote and came 4th.
• The contest was won by the Browtowe Alliance which had not previously contested the ward.
• Reform were 2nd with 22%, well below their usual range.
• The Lib Dems were 3rd on 13%, a drop of 8%. Clearly there was a failure by the Lib Dems to project themselves as the clear challenger.
• The Conservatives lost half their vote share and came 5th.
• There was another independent who came last. This muddied the water further.

Nunthorpe in Middlesbrough

• A very disappointing result for the Lib Dems as they had a successful defense rate of over 90%. Reform took the seat by the skin of their teeth - 13 votes.
• The Conservatives had previously been in contention but dropped to 3rd place. Their share dropped by a third, an improvement on their typical performances recently.
• Labour were never in contention and what little vote they had was squeezed further. They came 5th and last.
• The Greens stood for the first time and got 5%. Given how close the Reform majority was, it is likely that the Green intervention gave the seat to Reform. Vote Green, get Reform.

So, overall we can see that Labour are starting to fail to contest seats, the Greens are not surging, Reform is continuing to pick up seats, the Conservatives are still losing considerable vote share (as are Labour), beware of Independents pulling off unexpected tricks and the Lib Dems are generally doing well but can suffer an occasional shot across their bows.