Chuck out the checker?

Tonight I was sent by a colleague the link to the Gateshead page on Poll Check. I've always had a bit of a sceptic view of polls that take the average of national polls and then project them onto ward contests. There is a significant proportion of the electorate which votes for a different party in local elections to national elections. Add into the equation some basic mistakes. For example, in Gateshead, the Conservatives are fielding only 14 candidates, leaving 8 wards in which Conservative candidates are absent. Yet Poll Checker give the Conservatives a small share of the vote in Birtley South, one of the wards where the Conservatives are not standing. Admittedly, they are projected to get only 1.2%. Nevertheless, that could be the difference between winning and losing. So, there are some Conservative ghosts in these statistics.

But let's have some fun anyway with Poll Checker's projections. In my ward of Whickham South and Sunniside, the Conservatives get a barely noticeable 0.7%. Since 1988, Labour have always come second in the ward. This time they are projected to come 4th with 10.5%. So Labour have vacated the position of runner-up to Reform.

Thankfully, the Lib Dems are projected to hold all three seats in the ward.

So, do we chuck out the checker? Let's see how they perform over the next couple of weeks and then decide.