Yesterday's by-elections

There was a sizeable bag of by-elections yesterday to pick through. The overall pattern was one of creditable Lib Dem performance, a flash in the Tory pan, Labour's continued collapse and a rare reform victory against the Lib Dems.

So let's start with the Lib Dem good news stories. We made gains in Preston from Labour, in Surrey from the Conservatives, again in Surrey from RGV (presumably a local party) and in Spelthorne from the Greens. So 4 gains but sadly a loss as well. For the first time since the spring, we lost a seat to Reform in Babergh, the only Reform gain of the night.

Meanwhile the Conservatives can celebrate a gain from Labour in Trafford. Their victory can be put down to the Labour vote collapsing at a greater rate than that of the Conservatives. But a win is a win. Given their poor performance generally for the main opposition party, is this a flash in the pan or a real recovery?

For Labour it was another dreadful night. They lost both seats they were defending and typically their vote share halved.

And finally, there was a dent in the claim that the SNP were back in business after the meltdown at the 2024 general election. In South Ayrshire they lost to an independent.