A by-election is due to be held on 23rd October 2025 in Caerphilly to the Welsh Senedd. The constituency has, for 100 years, elected Labour representatives. It looks as though that is about to end. The reports coming out of the constituency suggest that there will be a near-complete collapse in the Labour vote. This reflects what can be seen throughout the country and indeed, what we can see happening on the ground in Gateshead. Labour's vote share is disintegrating. We have been out in Gateshead in areas that are typically strongly Labour and have struggled to find anyone prepared to say they are voting Labour.
Back to Caerphilly where Labour could be facing the ignominy of coming a distant third. With opinion polls showing that the Welsh Nationalists and Reform are battling it out for first place, Labour could face the prospect of suffering a classic 3rd party squeeze. In a constituency they have held for 100 years, that would be an appalling indictment on the Labour Party.
A squeeze on Labour in a former stronghold may not be confined to Caerphilly. There are many councils that have been Labour for decades. A Labour vote collapse could lead to a 2 horse race between Lib Dems and Reform with Labour being squeezed.
Were Labour to introduce fair votes for council elections, however, the danger of being caught in a third party squeeze would largely disappear.
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