Friday, December 21, 2007
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Saturday, December 15, 2007
It was a shock to the system
Secondly we realised Christmas is coming up. That was probably more of a shock to the system. So last night we went down to the Metrocentre, that great cathedral to the gods of retail, though not quite as full of worshippers as I had feared. Still it was bad enough. And frankly, I didn't get any shopping done though I did do a good performance as a bag carrier for David. He will have to do my shopping for me through the week for, strangely, there is an event coming along this coming week that is likely to occupy a modest amount of my time.
And now for something completely different. This is me getting covered in snakes in Kenya: Snake Video
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Shooting elephants (on camera and video)
I nearly didn't have my seat though that was not caused by National Express. Instead, I found my seat occupied by a bloke stuffing his face with a big mac and occupying the neighbouring seat with his bag. I politely told him he was in my seat. A significant amount of huffing and puffing followed by the angry packing up of his food took place. He then moved over to the seat behind me, which was also reserved. He then proceeded to have a loud conversation on his phone with someone to whom he was rude, demanding and foul-mouthed.
Anyway, for those interested, I have been in Africa and on the Indian Ocean for the past two weeks. Two weeks of taking photos of elephants and lions in Kenya, visiting a spice farm in Zanzibar, swimming with turtles in the Comoro Islands and paddling a kayak in Madagasgar. I will post up the entries from my diary over the next few days, along with some of the 1100 photos and 3 hours of video I shot. (This is actually 500 fewer photos than I took last year when I went on a cruise around the Black Sea).
I have also just left the Cowley St Xmas party. Photos to follow tomorrow.
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Back to delayed trains
I have avoided newspapers, internet and tv for 2 weeks and my blackberry was switched on only twice during the time I was away. So I have no idea about any news from the past fortnight. Has anything happened?
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Sunday, November 25, 2007
Leaders neck and neck
So going to our constituency fayre was the fun thing I did on my birthday yesterday. That and getting a haircut and sitting on the pc until 2.30am trying to clear a large backlog of work.
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Friday, November 23, 2007
Labour MP and the Parliamentary logo
Mr Clelland's spin machine must have got a bit constipated when it came up with the suggestion that this was somehow great news for him as he was now free from the constraints of the rules governing use of the Parliamentary Communications Allowance. A great victory for Mr Clelland as the herald of free speech, though this was only something he came up with after it was pointed out that he was not adhering to the rules about use of the Comms Allowance!
Mr Clelland is now shouting from the roof tops that his website is no long paid for by the taxpayer. Interesting.....But David, you still appear to be using the Parliamentary Portcullis logo. And on a party political site, which yours now is, I do believe that use of the logo is not allowed. You can find the rules relating to the use of the logo on page 32 of "The Communications Allowance and the use of House stationery" issued by the Commons Dept of Finance and Administration in April 2007.
Just thought I would helpfully point this out to you so that you can avoid the trouble the Conservatives had recently about using the logo on one of their websites.
By the way David, many thanks for responding so quickly on your website to my blog post from last night. I am delighted you take such an interest in my work.
And if anyone else would like to read Mr Clelland's raw nerve response to my pointing out he spoke only once in the Commons in the 1997 Parliament and his explanation for his silence, please do visit his site: http://www.david-clelland.org.uk/
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Labour MP no longer to misuse taxpayers’ money
I wrote that I was referring the matter to the Commons Finance Department to enquire into the appropriateness of taxpayers’ money being used this way.
Well, we have a result! Mr Clelland has rather hurriedly announced that his site is no longer to be paid for by the taxpayer. Visit his website for his convoluted and hilarious explanation as to how he wasn’t actually using taxpayers’ money.
Or simply let me summarise his argument. He hadn’t used taxpayers’ money to pay for what went on to his site in November as he hadn’t got round to billing Parliament for the period covering November!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
He claims to be ever so grateful to me for bringing his attention to the restrictions that are placed on political comment by the Parliamentary Communications Allowance.
He has, he claims, opted for “free speech” and is no longer going to claim any taxpayers’ money for his website (presumably opting to speak freely before the Parliamentary authorities pay him a visit!)
Mr Clelland states, "If Councillor Wallace thought he could silence me he is mistaken." I have no interest in silencing Mr Clelland. I have to say however it is rather rich of him to refer to silence. In the 1997-2001 Parliament he spoke only once. And that was only 4 words.
I was the person who exposed this and I suspect Mr Clelland has not forgiven me for bringing the attention of Tyneside to his roar of silence.
He was, however, relieved of his governmental duties after the 2001 general election when he was freed to spend more time with his dictionary.
So, Mr Clelland is now to engage in free speech. And that means it will come free to the taxpayer as well.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Labour MP savaged by Daily Mail
"The low point of the day in the chamber came from David Anderson (Lab, Blaydon), a man whose sparse Parliamentary talents are in contrast to his wibbly-wobbly girth. Mr Anderson was displeased by LibDem and Conservative criticisms of the government’s hugely expensive rescue operation for Northern Rock. 'The parties oppositve have a track record of not caring about jobs in the North East,' he cried. Mr Anderson wheezed that for this reason alone Labour must ‘ensure’ that the opposition never again won power. It is at such times that you wonder if modern democracy is really worth the candle. If Blaydon is to send such a dim flame to Westminster, what hope is there for Parliament?"
Perhaps a bit over the top and a touch unkind. But I post it up here for the benefit of readers of this blog who can come to their own judgement on Mr Anderson.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Would you buy shares in this Labour MP?
It seems that a good many Labour MPs in the North East are pushing the line that anyone who so much as blinks at the thought of handing over to a discredited management who have nearly bankrupted a medium size PLC more money than many government departments have to spend is somehow hostile to ensuring the company survives and is turned around. Labour argue that anyone who asks questions is out to destroy the North East, to take away jobs and, for good measure, eats babies as well.
Let me state my interest in this issue now. My partner and I are shareholders. We have in effect written off this investment. That's what you have to accept if you invest in the stock market. Fortunately the holding was only a tiny part of our portfolio but if you want to enjoy the benefits that go with the stock market, you have to accept the risks as well. That's how the system works.
I also have one close relative who works for Northern Rock. What happens with the company is therefore important to my family. And coming from the North East and refusing to give up on my region which is my home, the future of the company is clearly very important to me. But it does not stop us asking the questions about the financing of the company by the public that has happened.
I am not a fan of nationalisation. But there are times when it is necessary in strategic parts of the economy, such as the banking system, when things go horribly wrong and the private sector is unable to rescue the situation. Even the Conservatives know that - after all under them, the Bank of Credit, Commerce International, BCCI, was bought by the Bank of England.
So Vince Cable is right to argue that the extreme circumstances require a public takeover of Northern Rock, until such time as it is restored to health and can operate again as a going concern. The last thing that should be allowed is for another private operator to step in and buy somethign for less than its true value, leaving the public purse to pick up the difference. Such a huge subsidy to another bank, hedge fund or Richard Branson is completely unacceptable in a market economy. So if the private sector cannot come up with the right offer, the state should step in to protect its now huge interest as well as saving the business and the jobs.
David Anderson is the Labour MP for Blaydon - my home constituency (5000 majority over the Lib Dems, Conservative no chance here). Like other Labour colleagues in the debate yesterday, he trotted out the line that anyone so much as questioning the money that's gone in are akin to the dark forces of evil and need to be treated as such.
The most hopeless, crass and embarrassing intervention in the debate came from Mr Anderson. It was mercifully short which probably added to its potency as one of the worst interventions in a Parliamentary debate I have ever experienced. People’s jaws dropped at how cringingly bad was his performance. And then people just rolled about on the floor in laughter and merriment at such an atrociously poor performance. For entertainment value, it was a 5 star performance. For content and serious contribution to the debate, Mr Anderson is facing a debt almost as large as that of Northern Rock. Hopefully there will be no one willing to buy shares in Dave Anderson PLC. After yesterday’s exhibition, he cannot be regarded as a going concern (perhaps going nowhere concern would be better?) Best put him into liquidation.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Visiting Aunt Margaret
We met up at the home of my cousin Steven and his wife Stephanie. His brother Tim was there as well. Their mother Primrose is no longer with us. She would be 99 if she was still alive. Primrose married a Dutchman in 1935 and moved to Holland, surviving the Nazi occupation and moving back to the UK after the war. Tim's wife Kate, who was also there this afternoon, is herself the daughter of a German Jew who escaped to Britain in 1938 when the Sudetenland was handed over to Hitler from Czechoslovakia, after the Munich Crisis. (This was a subject I covered in detail in my PhD thesis.)
Margaret gave me a trunk made for Henry Wallace, my great grandfather. We think it was made in the 1870s. Henry was the first County Councillor for Whickham, back in the 1890s. I now represent the area on Gateshead Council.
David dropped me off at Darlington station afterwards so I could pick up the train to London. I am now at the flat. David headed home, with the trunk, which will take pride of place somewhere in our front room.
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More walkabouts
When I finished the walkabout yesterday, I went back to Sunniside. I had a long list of people to call on. One of them was aware of our email newsletter eFocus - she has relatives who receive it. She was keen to receive it herself - I have added her to the circulation list. The point is that the reach of eFocus is much wider than those on the recipient list. People forward it on to others and discuss the contents with family and friends. Over 500 households in my own ward now receive it, as well as many other houses in other wards as well. We even have people from outside the constituency asking to go on the circulation list.
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Saturday, November 17, 2007
Brian Paddick video
When I went to the launch of Brian Paddick's campaign to be Mayor of London to take the photos on Tuesday 13th November, I also shot this video.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Is it appropriate for a Labour MP to use taxpayers' money to attack the Lib Dems?
Readers may recall however that a few weeks ago I took issue with Mr Clelland after he claimed that it was in the national interest that Labour should be in power (despite his constant whinging about how his beloved Labour government was letting down the North East). You can read my original post here: David Clelland and the national interest.
On Mr Clelland’s website, he defends the arrogant view that equates the national interest to the interest of the Labour party. It is frankly what you would expect from the likes of the Labour party in the North East.
Presumably, to take Mr Clelland’s argument to their logical conclusion, he should be arguing for a one party state with Labour being the only party allowed for, to have other parties in power would, under Mr Clelland’s somewhat disturbing analysis, be against the national interest.
You can read Mr Clelland’s attack on me on this link: Clelland website. People visiting it will be able to see the rather childish defacing of the Lib Dem logo.
However, perhaps readers could tell me whether launching a personalised attack on a councillor and attacking another party on a website funded through an MP's Parliamentary Allowance is an appropriate use of taxpayers' money.
I simply ask at this stage out of curiosity. So I took the liberty of looking up "The Communications Allowance and the use of House stationery" issued by the House of Commons Department of Finance and Administration in April 2007. In section 7 on page 27 it specifies that MP websites financed by the Communications Allowance cannot be used "to advance perspectives or arguments with the intention of promoting interests of any person, political party or organisation you support, or damaging the interests of any such person, party or organisation."
I was just wondering whether political attacks on opponents and the defacing of opposition logos fits the above requirements.
So just to be helpful to Mr Clelland, I have kindly raised the matter with the Director of the Department of Finance and Administration in the Commons, just so that Mr Clelland can rest assured that he is operating within the rules.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Monday, November 12, 2007
The cold has arrived
I am of course weighed down with bags! I was asked if I would donate a set of my more unusual jams as a prize for the raffle at the Lib Dem ball being held a bit later this month. I don't suppose it will compete with the holiday or whatever it is that is first prize. However, it goes head to head with the jams of Gordon and Linda Seekings. Gordon is my opponent in the Cowley Street jam war! I will be most displeased if their curds are made a higher prize than my rosehip jelly!
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Sunday, November 11, 2007
Remembrance Day Parade Whickham November 2007
I laid a wreath in at the War Memorial today during the Remembrance Day service. This is the video of the procession and service.
Friday, November 09, 2007
A village walkabout
I put a reminder in the eFocus which I emailed out tonight. As each month goes buy the circulation of our email newsletter grows. In my own ward I now have over 500 homes receiving eFocus. We also have a growing number of businesses on our circulation list as well. Avid readers of it include the Labour party, just as they are avid readers of this blog. But more about that on another day!
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Wednesday, November 07, 2007
I know nothing about racing drivers
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Monday, November 05, 2007
How depressing: dark mornings and evenings
Last night when I was out collecting survey replies, at least I had people's private firework displays to keep me company, as I did on Saturday evening when I was in Dunston, one of our key wards. The survey we are doing is about recycling. As of last night, all 3800 houses in my ward have been surveyed and neighbouring wards are all plodding away with it.
The rest of the weekend had its usual array of fayres, site visits, focus deliveries, photo sessions and a meeting with the scout groups from Whickham about next year's fayres. Also three trips into the Team Valley area to help with some local campaigning.
And finally, I gathered in the last wild crop of the year - rosehips. I also found a wild apple tree still covered in fruit so I picked them. Last night I used them to make rosehip jelly. They will end up in a Lib Dem xmas fayre soon!
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Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Blood on the walls Labour style
My house was visited yesterday by someone associated with one of those involved. David was at home to take the message. Basically, following my recorded delivery letters sent last week, there has been an enormous row in Labour. One individual apparently has his metaphorical blood still dripping from the walls of his hallway after this person was told that any repeat of recent events and the use of other people's names without their prior knowledge would not be, shall we say, met with great joy.
Enjoy!
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Monday, October 29, 2007
What did you do with your extra hour?
My train to London is late. I'm still at Newcastle. The train due to leave after mine has already left!
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Friday, October 26, 2007
In a parallel universe, yesterday was polling day
I expected him to prevent the Tories getting the coverage their conference would have generated leaving the Labour conference and the poll boost from it as the last memory of it. I expected him to take advantage of Tory divisions and the loud and growing complaints by Tory backbenchers about Sham Cam. And what has Brown achieved? A massive boost for the Tories, a united Tory party, a successful Tory conference and a Cameron safe in his job who has convinced a large part of the electorate that a single, unaffordable policy can be passed off as a manifesto.
Added to this is the problem of the Ashcroft millions pouring into the marginals. It will take time to pass the legislation to put an end to that.
So, this morning we could have been waking up to a 4th heavy Tory defeat. Instead, we wake up to a stronger Tory party, courtesy of Brown. I do not expect Tory strength to last, but they have a boost in some parts of the country - they are however dead in my area in the North East. Once something is dead, no matter how much stimulus you give to a corpse, it won't bring it back to life!
Nevertheless, I suspect there are many in Labour who are just starting to question whether or not the coronation of Brown as saviour of Labour after the Blair years was the right thing to do.
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Sunday, October 21, 2007
My Labour opposite number replies
Mr de Vere had claimed that Lib Dem Newcastle Council had rushed through a recycling scheme, then immediately abandoned it and in the process wasted millions of pounds. The whole story was made up by Labour and there is not even a fibre of truth in it. Mr de Vere is the "editor" of the leaflet, along with Ms Elaine Dobson, the candidate who lost to us in the neighbouring ward in May. Both are also according to the imprint, the promoters of the leaflet. By all counts, the buck stops with them regarding the ultimate responsibility for the contents. That does not mean others are not responsible as well and it is reasonable to expect them to account for the claims as well.
However, I can now reveal that Mr de Vere has written back to me, denying any responsibility for the leaflet and claiming it is edited by someone else. He also returned my letter to him.
That Mr de Vere is not good enough. Buck passing and denying responsibility for one's own actions are New Labour trademarks. I am not going to accept such nonsense. I will of course be explaining to my constituents that he has rejected my offer to publish in our focus newsletters a retraction by him of the completely incorrect claims he was so prepared to put his name to. I will also be telling my constituents that despite claiming to be the editor of the leaflet, it would appear Mr de Vere is running away from responsibility for the leaflet which bears his name.
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Friday, October 19, 2007
Late trains and videos
As a member of party staff I am (quite rightly) not allowed to give my views publicly on who I would like to see as leader. I do however have a number of videos of both candidates I have shot and put on my YouTube channel so at some point, assuming there is no third candidate in the offing, I will do a post with a link to each video. I hasten to add that the videos are all positive. There are a couple from the Sedgefield by election than didn't make it to YouTube and will now go up. It will allow people to compare styles.
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The arrogance of Labour is incredible
Can you believe the arrogance of Labour to make such a boast? And frankly, it is all the more rich coming from someone who spends a great deal of time whinging and whining about what his government has or hasn't done. The above quote comes from his Parliamentary Report dated 11th October. On the same date, and in a different part of the same website, he is slagging off his own government over their failure to upgrade the A1.
(By the way, the website is quite clear that the Parliamentary Report is to the Labour constituency party, not to constituents. In his 22 years as MP here, I am not aware of his ever producing a Parliamentary Report for residents.)
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
A Kylie Minogue film
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Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Oop she did it again - Labour MP praises herself for a 2nd time (and recycles her EDMs)
For those of you who have never heard of Ms Hodgson, she was a union hack who was gifted the Gateshead seat in 2005, only to be dumped as a Labour candidate in the borough 18 months later (she has since re-emerged as Labour candidate for Sunderland - I'm not sure what Sunderland did to deserve that!)
Anyway, thanks to my hard work, Ms Hodgson's self-praise got a page lead in the Journal, our North East morning newspaper, and a mention in the Guardian diary column.
I was, this afternoon, doing some work on Early Day Motions from 2006 and discovered what I thought was a mistake. I found what I thought was the motion proposed by Ms Hodgson listed in the EDMs for the 2005/6 session when in fact she had proposed it earlier this year.
So I checked out the current session's list and there was the same motion except for a small difference: 2006 version slagged off Easyjet whilst the 2007 version slagged off Ryanair. Otherwise, apart from the addition of contact information about Ryanair, and the odd word, the motions were exactly the same.
And both contain the same self praise.
Interesting that recycling has taken off in this way!
Decency, Dignity, Honour
From the inside I have seen the improvements to the party machinery and policy that have happened under Ming's leadership. It seems so unfair that the real improvements have counted for so little in terms of Ming's image and profile.
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Monday, October 15, 2007
A polite letter to my Labour opposite number
Anyway, he has decided to promote a Labour leaflet which contains some incredible, glaring inaccuracies and false information. As a result I felt obliged to write to him, and Elaine Donson, Labour's losing candidate for the neighbouring ward who is also alleged to be the editor of this publication, to point out that we are informing our constituents that the information they have circulated is inaccurate. Our Focus newsletter contains language which is a little bit more colourful about their claims!
One of the claims made by Labour is that across the Tyne in Newcastle, the Lib Dem run council introduced a recycling scheme at the cost of millions which had to be abandoned immediately, wasting the millions spent. This whole saga is simply made up by Labour. No such reversal or waste of millions ever happened. This of course makes rebuttal easier!
I am of course willing to be generous and have offered the two Labour candidates the opportunity to have a retraction included in a future copy of Focus!
There was someone in a car on the drive of the house where Mr de Vere lives when I delivered the letter this morning. Whoever it was didn't get out to speak to me. Instead, the person drove off down the street.
Mr de Vere's leaflet also justifies Labour's position on our village Post Office in Sunniside. The village was up in arms earlier this year when Labour kicked out an application to install a cash machine in the branch - it would be the only 24 hour cash machine in the village and I handed in a petition of over 200 signatures in favour of the plan. I found it surprising that Labour have decided to return to this issue. Labour have won no points from the people on their stance. But perhaps Mr de Vere is setting out to make himself the most unpopular man in the village! And Paul, our vlllage postmaster has given us a quote for our Focus which says what he thinks about what Labour have done.
Mind you, no one will be able to respond directly to Mr de Vere. His contact details on his leaflet are actually those for a Labour councillor for a ward miles away. And I have plenty of constituents who want to give him a piece of their mind!
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Friday, October 12, 2007
This train journey is ridiculous
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Jam tomorrow
This weekend, if I have time, I will make sloe jam. Not one I've tried before but there is a good supply of fruit. If I get round to making it, I guess Cowley St will be the guinea pigs to try it out. Mind you, I am never short of volunteers there!
2 hours to go before I get to Newcastle. The buffet car has just been closed and the trolley service is not serving hot drinks. Not the best situation to be in.
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Ripping apart another Labour lie
It turns out Labour have made the whole thing up. No policy has been reversed and no millions have been wasted. Indeed, it turns out that Newcastle are pressing ahead with one of the most advanced recycling schemes going which puts Labour Gateshead well in the shade.
These claims come from the same party that claimed in the local elections they were against parking charges in Whickham village centre, after having voted to introduce them! The same party claimed this year that Whickham Comprehensive School was going to be replaced with a new school immediately - the story was complete rubbish and was even denied by the council's education department. The same party claimed to be against building flats on a particular location in my ward and then a couple of weeks later voted for them.
So if you want to see hypocritical, duplicitous, dishonest Labour in action, come to Gateshead where Labour are currently showcasing their worst characteristics.
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2 gains from the Tories
Election Results: Thursday 11th October 2007.
Horsham DC, Holbrook West
LD Belinda Walters 602 (43.9; +11.1), Con 554 (40.4; -6.5), BNP 163 (11.9;
+11.9), Lab 52 (3.8; +0.2), [Ind (0.0; -16.6)].
Majority 48. Turnout 32.2%. LD gain from Con. Last fought 2007.
Chippenham TC, Pewsham
LD Mark Packard 493 (58.8), Con 346 (41.2).
Majority 147. Turnout 19.5%. LD gain from Con.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Blair's agent suspended as councillor
Whilst Labour have airbrushed Blair out of their recent past, they may want to do the same with Mr Burton. Apparently, he threatened a fellow councillor with deselection if he did not vote for a particular planning application for housing at Trimdon.
Yesterday he was hung out to dry by the Standards Board for a month. You can read more on: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7037364.stm
Given this is Trimdon, why not relive the excitement of the Battle of Trimdon Green: http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=2lrhvLlbB6I
Monday, October 08, 2007
I was expecting not to return
Meanwhile, this train is delayed due to a points problem north of Newcastle. We are approaching Peterborough and people are desperate to get off the train to catch the train to Stansted. They're all swarming up the train to coach D so that they are closer to the footbridge. They have about 10 seconds to catch the Stansted train once we come to a halt at Peterborough.
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Saturday, October 06, 2007
Blogging from the bath: Brown covered in the brown stuff
What I find surprising is that Brwon let so much speculation run riot about an election that a climbdown was almost inconceivable. Having done all the preparations, brought forward the announcements, done the expensive (and ilconceived) taxpayer funded election rally in Baghdad, relaunched for the goodness knows how many times the Crossrail scheme, and done nothing to suggest an election would not be called, Brown backs down on the basis of a Tory poll bounce his stupidity helped to create in the first place.
I was strongly of the view that a political leader so allegedly astute as Brown would never let a hare running like this. The idiot has now achieved the opposite of what he intended to do. He has strengthened Cameron at a time when Cameron was on the ropes. Having relied on his opponents to do further damage to themselves (never rely on your opponents to help you win elections - other than Labour assistance to Thatcher in 1983) because of a threat of a general election, Sham Cam has come out as the one who appears (note only appears) to be the one strong enough to win an election, when the reality is that the Tories are very far from winning an election at all. Brown has done a midas touch in reverse. He touched gold and saw it turn to lead.
One of our key messages which we pump out from the Communications Unit is that Brown is more spin than substance. If anyone doubts that now, just look at the last couple of weeks. The spun was spun out of control and got a life of its own and it has just kicked its creator well and truely in the nether region. So Lib Dem campaigning should constantly remind voters of spinning Brown. People have the experience now to agree with it.
So Brown let Brown hit the fan and Labour are now covered in the brown stuff. No number of hot baths for them will get rid of the reek of Brown and his fatal error of judgement. Take decisions on the basis of short term political again and you deserve to be washed down the drain.
Meanwhile where's my plastic duck!?
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I am surprised
Incidentally I found the sloes growing when I came to this field this afternoon for the unvieling of a plaque to mark the site of two bell pits that were discovered on the edge of my village of Sunniside earlier this year. I'll have the video on YouTube tonight. Great place to get hugs and kisses and casework from my constituents!
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Friday, October 05, 2007
I still expect him to call it next week
Those polls however will not be the ones Brown will be studying this weekend. Instead it will be the evidence from the marginal constituencies. After all, they are where elections are won or lost. He will also need to look at their canvass data as well.
Do not expect him to stop the countdown to the launch of the election. He has partly painted himself into a corner and to call off the election now would make him appear weak and Cameron strong. That could have lasting effect.
In addition, in looking at the data from the constituencies, Brown will also be aware of what will happen if he does not go now. More Tory millions will be poured into the marginals, firming up the Tory vote over the winter and spring. The constituency arms race is not one the Labour Party can sustain for too long and with a weakened activist base from a decade in power, getting those who are left out to campaign now will be easier than raising their expectation, dashing them and then trying again in the spring.
Throw into the melting pot as well the slowdown in the economy. Growth will be lower than it was been over the past decade and that will put a brake on public spending. That means bad new stories on services. It could mean some tax rises as well, especially on council tax. And a big increase in council tax next April, a month before a spring general election would be bad news for Labour.
Brown was arguably foolish to let expectation of a snap autumn election build up so much momentum. It is likely he reckoned on a more comfortable general opinion poll lead and positive headlines in the run up to calling the election. It is characteristic of the arrogance of Labour that they could assume such comfort.
So Labour are now in a position in which their expectation is now that they get back simply with a majority, rather than an improved one. Brown let the election expectation rip because he thought he could get an increased majority. After all, going to the country well before you need to just to come back with a more difficult Parliamentary position is the suicidal form of government that doesn't strike me as being the sort of aim Brown would harbour.
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Rumours of a Tory poll bounce
So just when we thought it was a done deal and the starting pistol was being loaded, are all election bets off?
This is like waiting for the launch of the space shuttle! Lots of preparation, it's sitting on the launch pad in full glare of the cameras, everyone is waiting for the roar of the engines as the countdown gets closer to zero. The final possible mission-abort point is 4 second before ignition. I feel we are at about 8 seconds to go and suddenly Mission Controller Brown's finger is hovering above the abort button.
What he doesn't want to do is let it go ahead and then 60 seconds into the flight, tell the crew, "Labour Challenger, you can go throttle up".
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
The Cameroonie rallying cry
Nevertheless, my predictions that Brown will attempt to steal the limelight turned out to be true, even if not quite in the way I expected.
So back to the Tories and their leader. What to expect from Cameron this afternoon? Watch out for more income tax cut promises. The Tories have already said that they will raise taxes on aircraft Well, they need to use that money somehow and my guess is they will make some kind of income tax cut proposal.
The Tories' tax calculations will however all be back of an envelope stuff. The same sort of approach came up with the ludicrous claim that 9 million families will benefit from their inheritance tax plans. If only so much of the nation had so much capital to leave to the next generation. Alas, the reality is far different. The point is the Tories tax proposals have been rushed. It wouldn't surprise me if they came up with their non domicile levy (a 25,000 poll tax on people who can't vote) in a panic last week as they scratched around for some red meat to chuck to the baying Tory blue rinse. In July, Tory Treasury Spokesman Philip Hammond MP was himself attacking the Lib Dems for wanting to bring non doms into the UK tax system, describing them as an "easy target".
So today expect some absurd claims about millions of people benefitting from the Tory tax plans. Their rushed proposals, thrown together for a snap general election, will come unstuck in the glare of publicity. That's already happening with their recent tax announcements.
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Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Brown's Enron style numbers
Brown speak would find a good home in the annual report to shareholders of Enron!
Brown's next election visit: Baghdad
Brown is posing as the statesman and is on a "fact finding" mission to Iraq. Oh yer, pull the other one, it's got bells on! The person who wrote the cheques and could have stopped British involvement before it started knows all the facts he needs already. So this is simply a massive publicity stunt for Labour to keep the Tories off the front pages, a jolly paid for by the taxpayer.
Mind you, given the choice of going to Iraq of Blackpool, I'm not sure which one I would want to do!
Expect an announcement next week in Parliament of a further troop reduction which the formerly pro-the-War-and-now-very-much-against-it Labour party will spin for all it's worth as the end of the Iraq episode. And then expect an election shortly afterwards.
Brown is probably planning something big for this Thursday as well. It could be the trip to the palace or perhaps a major policy announcement. Whatever it is, expect Labour to attempt to manage the news agenda on the day away from the Conservative conference.
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Monday, October 01, 2007
Autumn is here!
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My last weekend before he calls the election?
So Sunday morning saw me down in our Whickham office printing focus leaflets I had written on Saturday evening. Sunday morning also arrived with an early morning phone call. The chairman of the editorial board of Parliamentary Campaigner was calling to make last minute changes to the urgent edition going to candidates later that day. I had to crawl out of bed and go to the office in my house and make some changes to the document (most of which were corrections to typos).
I suppose I had myself to blame however. The idea of bringing forward the final edition of 2007 of Parliamentary Campaigner by 2 months was mine. This time last week, as I sat on the train to London, I spent the time emailing the editorial board and campaigns dept suggesting this as a course of action and proposing the contents. Having got agreement, all I had to do was write the thing! All the usual pages were scrapped. Parliamentary Campaigner instead became the guide all candidates need to get them started on the general election!
There were some domestic jobs that could not be delayed which involve our food supply. I had a mountain of pears and crab apples I picked last weekend which had to be cooked or put into the compost bin. The freezer was also crammed full of recently picked blackberries but we needed the room for other things. The useful thing about jam making is that I can write focuses, deal with correspondence, catch up with the news headlines, have my dinner and, okay I admit it, watched a bit of The Terminator on one of the Sky Movie Channels whilst the jam pan is boiling away. A case of multi-tasking! It was also the last weekend I could gather in a good crop of hazel. Leave them any longer and the nuts become windfall of get eaten by the squirrels! I gathered in about 5kg. Had I had more time, I would have picked about 3 or 4 times the quantity.
So will he call it this week? I suspect Thursday could be a busy day. Sham Cam gives his speech and at the end of it suddenly there is no coverage. Instead the big story is the election being called. And if that scenario is what happens, the trip to London I am making now is going to be a bit longer that I had planned!
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