Thursday, February 23, 2017

How will people cope if UKIP fail to stoke up trouble?

I probably won't be staying up late tonight for the results of the Copeland and Stoke by-elections. I have a reasonably early start tomorrow morning with a meeting of people from the Home Office about the Prevent Network. So I don't want to be going to bed at 3am.

My hopes for the outcomes (2 Lib Dem gains) are likely to differ from the actual outcomes. My guess is that Copeland will probably go Conservative. Stoke on Trent Central I guess will stay Labour. Nuttall and his Kippers have not exactly left a good impression. If this is the outcome, Labour's loss of Copeland will be outshone by their holding Stoke. As the expectations of a UKIP gain have been so high, Labour's holding of a formerly safe seat will count as a Corbyn-saving victory even if Copeland is lost. Whatever the outcome, the fact we are discussing the possibility of Labour in opposition losing seats they have held for decades shows how far Labour have sunk.

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