Lessons from Caerphilly

I got the result of the Caerphilly by-election this morning (I decided against staying up all night to await the outcome). The key points I have taken from the result are listed below but the big winner of the night was tactical voting. Turnout was the big surprise of the night and Labour and Reform were jointly the biggest losers.

Tactical voting

This is what killed off the supremacy of Labour in the constituency and the challenge of Reform. Once it became obvious that Labour were dropping to third place, they were trapped in a third party squeeze. For Labour in Caerphilly, this was a new experience, having dominated the constituency for a century. It was also the key to Plaid's win. Without it, they probably would have lost to Reform.

Labour's collapse

Labour's share of the vote dropped by three quarters. This is worse than most council by-elections where typically Labour are losing half their vote share. A drop of three quarters would wipe out Labour in first-past-the-post elections.

Labour voters backing Reform

There have always been right leaning, socially conservative Labour voters. They vote Labour without enthusiasm or simply stay at home on polling day. Before Reform, they had no alternative party to back. This has fundamentally changed. Reform are happily hunting for rightwing Labour supporters who now form a key part of the Reform-backing coalition.

Reform can be beaten

Since the general election, too many people have watched in horror at the rise of Reform, incorrectly believing they can't be beaten.  Relying on Labour to defeat Reform is a non-starter but Caerphilly does demonstrate that the Reform challenge can be driven back. Look at the council by-elections held yesterday and you can see that Reform can by stopped in their tracks, at least by the Lib Dems.

Reform's share of the vote is stuck

The opinion polls put Reform on a range of about 25% to 36%. By-elections (including Caerphilly) typically see Reform on about 30-35%. They struggle to outperform these levels of support. Projections based on opinion polling may give super-sized majorities in the Commons to Reform but factor in tactical voting and the constant infighting that saps Reform's internal strength, and somehow, Reform don't seem to be as invincible as many believe.

So the lessons to take from Caerphilly are that Reform can be beaten, tactical voting can work and Labour are facing an existential threat.