Last week's byelections

There were three council byelections last week (I don't include town and parish councils). Things to note about these contests:

• Labour were defending all 3 seats. They lost all of them.
• The seats fell to Plaid Cymru, Greens and Lib Dems.
• Reform won nothing. I think this is the first time since the May 2025 elections in which Reform came away empty handed.
• In Caerphilly, PC's share of the vote was down a couple of percent but Labour's meltdown continues. PC's gain was due to collapsing Labour.
• In Leicester, the Greens were the victors though the majority was only 3%. Still, a win is a win. The Green's share of the vote at 30% is closer to the typical share of byelection winners generally - these days there are large numbers of political parties. The vote is fractured on both left and right.
• Meanwhile, the Lib Dems took half the votes cast in Redcar and Cleveland, a rise of 15%. 
• Reform had to chuck in the towel in Redcar and Cleveland after their candidate's vile social media attacks on the Jewish and Muslim communities were discovered. When they came to light, it was too late to withdraw the candidate.

For Labour the most worrying trend is the continued loss of vote share. Typically, they are losing half their share, often more. Though Labour's vote share fell in Leicester by a more modest 12%, in Caerphilly Labour fell from 55% to 27%. In Redcar and Cleveland, Labour dropped from 46% to 22%.

If this continues into the local elections in May, Labour's performance will be dismal. At the moment I cannot see any knights riding to Labour's rescue. However a lot can change in a few weeks in politics. Let's see what the Denton and Gorton Parliamentary by-election bring.