Another bar chart to finish the month

 

An interesting bar chart from Lib Dem HQ. I think it speaks for itself.

Back to the Tynesider

 

The final Thursday evening each month has grown into a bit of a social event for Gateshead Lib Dems. The last one was held yesterday at the Tynesider on Gateshead High Street. The video above is a slide show of the event.

By-elections: the analysis

Yesterday saw another good crop of Lib Dem council by-election results. Let's start with the main headline: Lib Dem gain from Reform in Worcestershire. This was one of the councils which, in May, switched to the Reform insurgents. 

Yesterday, a by-election was held in Bromsgrove South. We won it! Key points are:

• Reform loss means Lib Dem gain;
• The Greens failed to stand a candidate (where is this so-called Green surge?);
• Before Reform, this was a strong Conservative ward. Yesterday the Conservatives managed a miserable 11%;
• The Lib Dems took over half the votes cast. Winning 50% of the vote in an individual ward has become something of a glass ceiling for all parties. Multi-party politics means more choice but it becomes far more challenging to reach the point where half of voters back a particular party.

The next ward to consider is St John's in Tunbridge Wells.

• Lib Dem hold but again, we took over half the votes cast.
• The ward is in a Lib Dem parliamentary constituency (Tunbridge Wells) which suggests Lib Dem supporters are voting Lib Dem at both local and national level. Previously, in most parts of the country, getting those who vote Lib Dem locally to do so nationally has been something of a challenge.
• Reform got only 15%, well down on their opinion poll ratings and usual by-election vote share. It suggests that in areas where the Lib Dems are well organised, Reform find it difficult to make progress.
• There was no Labour candidate. Is this a straw in the wind that Labour's organisaton is crumbling?
• Will Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells be happy with this result?

Garlinge in Thanet is an area where Reform are doing well already.

• Reform won, taking the seat from a local party. They got a share of the vote greater than their usual 25-35% range. That should make them smile.
• At 32%, this share of the vote is relatively high for the Conservatives and they even managed to vote share increase of 12%. This is however something of a one-off. Their vote share elsewhere is poor.
• Labour dropped from 20% to 8%. This reflects what is happening elsewhere - Labour are losing over half their vote share.
• This is stoney ground for the Greens but the Green surge remains hidden here. Their vote share fell by a small margin.
• This is also stoney ground for the Lib Dems. Nevertheless, we had a candidate in the ward for the first time in 20 years.

Roebuck in Stevenage waved goodbye to Labour.

• A gain by Reform from Labour, adding to to the forever growing pile of lost Labour seats.
• This was an unusal result in that Lab, Cons, Greens and Lib Dems all lost vote share to Reform who were standing for the first time.
• The Greens came last but managed to keep their Green surge well hidden.

Hendon in Barnet - get your bugles ready to announce something rare.

• A Conservative hold and their drop in vote share was only 2.5%. At 46% of the vote, the Tories can feel pleased with this result. A pity for them they have little else to celebrate.
• Reform were runners up but they were some distance from the winning post.
• Another Green surge disguised as a drop in share of the vote.

And finally, from across the border, a by-election in Stirling East

• It was not good news for the Conservatives. They lost the seat and ended up in 4th place on 7% of the vote.
• The SNP were the winners.
• We found the Green surge - their vote shot up a whopping 1%.
• Reform got 23%, a rise of 9%, the biggest rise for any party in this ward. Nevertheless, their share is about 10% less than in the rest of the UK, suggesting Reform's reach into Scotland is more limited.

So what to make of the 6 by-elections?

• A good set of results for the Lib Dems with a gain and a successful defence and we stood in all the by-elections. However, there are areas of the country where our reach is limited. How do we turn that around?
• Someone must have turned the Green surge into organic mulch and dumped it on the compost heap.
• Conservatives continue to shrink though the Hendon result suggests they can't be written off....yet.
• Reform had a mixed night with 2 gains but also a loss to the Lib Dems. They need to look over their shoulder at the Lib Dems.
• Labour continue to lose significant vote share and show no signs of electoral recovery.

Scarecrow festival in Streetgate

 

It started last year - people in Streetgate, one of the villages I represent as a councillor, made scarecrows and displayed them in their gardens. The newly established soon-to-be-a tradition this year has seen lots of Halloween decorations put up as well. Lots of residents are joining in the fun. I've included quite a few photos of the displays in the video above.

Planning the switch on

Last night, my two ward colleagues - Jonathan Mohammed and Marilynn Ord - and I met up with Planting Up Sunniside in Sunniside Club to sort out some of the details of the Christmas tree switch on event on 26th November. The switch-on will be on 26th November on the grassed area opposite Sun Hill. at about 5pm. More details to follow.

Let them eat lunch

 

We have a simple rule in Gateshead Lib Dems for action days: always go for lunch together in a local hostelry or in a member's house. On Saturday, at the end of our action day in Dunston Hill and Whickham East, we gathered at the Waggon Team pub near Lobley Hill. Very nice!

Dunston Hill and Whickham East action day

 

On Saturday, while some Lib Dem members in Gateshead were running the Whickham surgery, others were in Dunston Hill and Whickham East where we were delivering the latest Focus newsletter. Most patches were completed with the remainder done on Sunday. Next ward in the action day pipeline is Whickham North and Swalwell.

Saturday's surgery

 

The Whickham councillors held their monthly advice surgery at Whickham Library on Saturday. Of the 9 of us, five were at the surgery and four of us were in Dunston delivering Focus newsletters. Issues raised included the national minimum wage (not quite our responsibility as councillors) and Chase Park.

By-election boost for the Lib Dems

 

This is quite interesting. In all the by-elections held since May's local elections, Reform and the Lib Dems are significantly ahead of the other parties in terms of seats won. Add the Conservative, Labour and Greens together and their figures still fall short of the Lib Dem total. Happy days!

Focus production line

It feels as though I have been on a Focus newsletter production line this month. So far I have written and put together five editions. These boxes arrived at the home of one of our councillors last week. An action day is fast approaching to deliver this Focus. I have one left to write for the current round and it's actually for my ward!

First job on my return

 

I was away from home for a couple of days last week. Sadly, Ann, my mother-in-law, passed away in September. Her funeral was in Kent.

On my return home, my first job was to remove the sack of vegetation that have been left at Church Green in Whickham. Plant Up Whickham had stripped out all the flower beds while I was away. My job was to remove the sacks to my farm where we turn it into compost. It took two journeys with my pick up. This is not the end of the job. The volunteers will be replanting the flowerbeds shortly.

Lessons from Caerphilly

I got the result of the Caerphilly by-election this morning (I decided against staying up all night to await the outcome). The key points I have taken from the result are listed below but the big winner of the night was tactical voting. Turnout was the big surprise of the night and Labour and Reform were jointly the biggest losers.

Tactical voting

This is what killed off the supremacy of Labour in the constituency and the challenge of Reform. Once it became obvious that Labour were dropping to third place, they were trapped in a third party squeeze. For Labour in Caerphilly, this was a new experience, having dominated the constituency for a century. It was also the key to Plaid's win. Without it, they probably would have lost to Reform.

Labour's collapse

Labour's share of the vote dropped by three quarters. This is worse than most council by-elections where typically Labour are losing half their vote share. A drop of three quarters would wipe out Labour in first-past-the-post elections.

Labour voters backing Reform

There have always been right leaning, socially conservative Labour voters. They vote Labour without enthusiasm or simply stay at home on polling day. Before Reform, they had no alternative party to back. This has fundamentally changed. Reform are happily hunting for rightwing Labour supporters who now form a key part of the Reform-backing coalition.

Reform can be beaten

Since the general election, too many people have watched in horror at the rise of Reform, incorrectly believing they can't be beaten.  Relying on Labour to defeat Reform is a non-starter but Caerphilly does demonstrate that the Reform challenge can be driven back. Look at the council by-elections held yesterday and you can see that Reform can by stopped in their tracks, at least by the Lib Dems.

Reform's share of the vote is stuck

The opinion polls put Reform on a range of about 25% to 36%. By-elections (including Caerphilly) typically see Reform on about 30-35%. They struggle to outperform these levels of support. Projections based on opinion polling may give super-sized majorities in the Commons to Reform but factor in tactical voting and the constant infighting that saps Reform's internal strength, and somehow, Reform don't seem to be as invincible as many believe.

So the lessons to take from Caerphilly are that Reform can be beaten, tactical voting can work and Labour are facing an existential threat.

Nationalist or Reform

Were I a voter in Caerphilly, I would be faced with the unenviable task of voting for the Welsh Nationalists to beat Reform. Don't get me wrong - I am no fan of nationalism but Plaid Cymru are the only party able to beat Reform in this by-election. It's a remarkable state of affairs when Labour lose their stronghold to slump into 3rd position. (I am writing this before the result is known but all the indications are of a close battle between the Nationalists and Reform.) Labour, the one time masters of Caerphilly are now being squeezed as the third party. Many of those wishing to keep out Reform will have held their nose while voting Plaid. This wasn't a case of people turning positively to nationalism. This was a case of people voting for something bad to avoid something even worse. What a mess!

Bridging the gap

 

A Lib Dem team has been out in Bridges ward of Gateshead recently to deliver the latest Focus. The Lib Dems are now the only party campaigning in the ward. No other party is bothering to keep in touch with residents.

Losing money for a good cause

 

On Saturday 18th October 2025, Light Up Whickham held a race night to raise funds for Whickham's Christmas tree. A bunch of Lib Dems turned up. A good time was had by all. I lost a great deal of money for a good cause.

The inevitable Lib Dem bar chart

 

I was a bit too quick yesterday when posting about the by-elections held on Thursday. More results came in after I wrote the blog post. Thankfully HQ have inevitably produced a bar chart of the overall results. We made gains from Labour, Conservatives and Greens and topped the poll in 7 by-elections.

Race Night tomorrow

 

I'll be there!

Yesterday's by-elections

There was a sizeable bag of by-elections yesterday to pick through. The overall pattern was one of creditable Lib Dem performance, a flash in the Tory pan, Labour's continued collapse and a rare reform victory against the Lib Dems.

So let's start with the Lib Dem good news stories. We made gains in Preston from Labour, in Surrey from the Conservatives, again in Surrey from RGV (presumably a local party) and in Spelthorne from the Greens. So 4 gains but sadly a loss as well. For the first time since the spring, we lost a seat to Reform in Babergh, the only Reform gain of the night.

Meanwhile the Conservatives can celebrate a gain from Labour in Trafford. Their victory can be put down to the Labour vote collapsing at a greater rate than that of the Conservatives. But a win is a win. Given their poor performance generally for the main opposition party, is this a flash in the pan or a real recovery?

For Labour it was another dreadful night. They lost both seats they were defending and typically their vote share halved.

And finally, there was a dent in the claim that the SNP were back in business after the meltdown at the 2024 general election. In South Ayrshire they lost to an independent.

Sunniside Christmas tree lights switch on

 It will all be happening on 26th November.

Labour's Welsh fiefdom on edge of collapse

A by-election is due to be held on 23rd October 2025 in Caerphilly to the Welsh Senedd. The constituency has, for 100 years, elected Labour representatives. It looks as though that is about to end. The reports coming out of the constituency suggest that there will be a near-complete collapse in the Labour vote. This reflects what can be seen throughout the country and indeed, what we can see happening on the ground in Gateshead. Labour's vote share is disintegrating. We have been out in Gateshead in areas that are typically strongly Labour and have struggled to find anyone prepared to say they are voting Labour.

Back to Caerphilly where Labour could be facing the ignominy of coming a distant third. With opinion polls showing that the Welsh Nationalists and Reform are battling it out for first place, Labour could face the prospect of suffering a classic 3rd party squeeze. In a constituency they have held for 100 years, that would be an appalling indictment on the Labour Party.

A squeeze on Labour in a former stronghold may not be confined to Caerphilly. There are many councils that have been Labour for decades. A Labour vote collapse could lead to a 2 horse race between Lib Dems and Reform with Labour being squeezed.

Were Labour to introduce fair votes for council elections, however, the danger of being caught in a third party squeeze would largely disappear.

Another Reform defection to Advance

 

Tories defecting to Reform is a common activity but the traffic is not one way. There has been another defection of a former Parliamentary candidate from Reform to Advance. Patrick Sargent was Reform's candidate in Middlesbrough and Thornaby East last year. He was also the chair of the constituency branch.

In his resignation letter, he wrote:

Reform UK has become a hollowed-out organisation in which local branches are reduced to leaflet factories, stripped of any democratic say or meaningful influence. Members are treated as unpaid labour, not as valued contributors, and any independent thought or initiative is discouraged or punished.

Appointments within the party appear driven by loyalty to a narrow inner circle rather than competence or experience. Talented, committed members have been side-lined in favour of yes-men. What could have been a serious political movement has instead become a vanity project obsessed with headlines rather than substance.

This lack of seriousness is reflected in policy and governance. Reform's "policies" are often little more than slogans written for television, not serious proposals for government. Local administrations have stumbled into disarray exposing a dangerous absence of training, preparation, and professionalism.

The culture of the party has also deteriorated into one of fear and control, where members risk sanction simply for expressing reasonable views or criticism. This environment has stifled open discussion and innovation, ensuring that Reform remains stagnant and centralised."

It's quite a condemnation of Reform though to everyone in politics, it comes as no surprise. I wonder how many more defectors are waiting to leave Reform.

Gateshead West branch meeting

 

Gateshead West branch had its monthly meeting last night in Winlaton. As expected, the local elections were the main point of discussion. We reviewed the action days held in Birtley, Lamesley, Lobley Hill and Bensham, Dunston Hill and Ryton. Further action days are coming to all 3 Whickham and Bridges wards in the next few weeks.

The most important decision was the Christmas dinner: my research on Saturday paid off. We are to book the Soho Tavern in Kibblesworth.

The Sunniside Christmas tree

 

I attended a meeting of Planting Up Sunniside on Monday. They are planning the event to switch on the Christmas tree, the first in the village since 2018. The switch on event is provisionally in the diary for 26th November, subject to confirmation from the mayor. I will be supplying the reindeer (2 of my goats cunningly disguised.) There are lots of details still to sort out but we are looking forward to a great community event.

The photo above was taken at the 2018 event.

Action day in the Racecourse Estate

 

Another Sunday and another action day in Gateshead for the Lib Dems. This time it was in the Racecourse Estate in Bensham. Again, a positive response from residents and a dire performance by Labour. Sadly, I wasn't able to be there myself as I was moving around sheep and goats on my farm!

My Saturday night sacrifice

 

I was reminded yesterday by the chairman of Gateshead West Lib Dem branch that I had promised to check out a venue for our members' annual dinner. Having heard of the awards the Soho Tavern in Kibblesworth had received, I had suggested this was the place to book. However I had to check it out and make a recommendation to the branch executive which meets this week. So I had to sacrifice my Saturday evening at home last night to try out the Soho Tavern, all in the name of research!

I will be making a positive recommendation to the exec.

More pics from the Ryton action day

 Just a few more photos from the Lib Dem action day in Ryton yesterday.

Ryton action day

Today it was the turn of Ryton ward in Gateshead to host a Lib Dem action day. We ensured a good presence on the Main Road near the Coop. We had a stall handing out our literature including the latest Focus which has just arrived from the printers. The horn meter was in full swing as lots of people tooted us as they drove past. And it was refreshing to see no one signal us by raising two fingers! We had more people there than expected so a team was sent to central Gateshead to deliver the recently arrived Focus there.

Photos from Lamesley action day

 On Saturday 4th October, Gateshead Lib Dems had an action day in Lamesley ward. I managed to sit on the photos for a week so here they are.

And most importantly, the lunch:

Photos in Birtley and Lamesley

 

I was in Birtley and Lamesley again this afternoon, this time to take some photos with a couple of the new Lib Dem campaigners who are part of the battle to end Labour's 51 year rule in Gateshead. Cameron Wallace and Abbie Batey have a combined age which is still less than mine! So as the old man, I took them around the area so we could build up our photo library for forthcoming Focus newsletters and the local party's website. I'm doing the same on Sunday with other campaigners and councillors in Gateshead.

Lifeboats for baggage

It wasn't the best way for the Conservatives to end their conference in Manchester. Twenty of their councillors, in a coordinated move, announced their defection to Reform. Badenoch's response to this downsizing of her party was to describe the defectors as "baggage" from the last 14 years which was being shed by the party.

At a time when every party needs troops on the ground, describing your councillors as "baggage" is not the way to win friends. Indeed, the opposite is likely to be the outcome as Conservative councillors weigh up whether or not to stay or jump ship to Reform. No wonder the Conservatives are in such trouble if they treat their councillors so poorly. Don't get me wrong - I am very unlikely to share any of the political views of the defectors - but the Conservatives are acting as recruiting agents for Reform by treating their councillors so badly.

On the other hand however, the motivation of the defectors has to be questioned. I took a look at the list of the 20 defectors announced yesterday. Not a single one was from a council that saw elections in May. Or more precisely, every one of the defectors is still to face an electoral contest with Reform in play. Given the remarkable ability of the Conservatives to lose seats to Reform, it looks to me like they were jumping ship to save their electoral skins. In effect, Reform are the lifeboat for Tory baggage.

Drifting tumbleweed

I was one of the few people who actually watched Kemi Badenoch's speech to the Conservative conference this morning. I was curious to see how she was going to climb out of the deep hole into which she and the Conservatives had fallen. It was a relatively competent performance but she got a few things wrong. Her claim that the Conservatives brought in same sex marriage was sheer rubbish. Most Conservative MPs in 2013 opposed the legislation when it went through Parliament. They lost because a large majority of Lib Dem, Labour and SNP MPs voted in favour. I'm not sure whether she was wilfully wrong or just incompetent. That's for her to answer.

Badenough also claimed that the last Conservative government cut taxes for ordinary people. Her omission is that it was the Lib Dems who put forward policies to raise the personal allowance thereby taking many more people on low incomes out of income tax. The Coalition government agreed to this Lib Dem tax cutting plan. Alas, the Conservatives then put them into reverse and the personal allowance has now been frozen for a number of years, a tax rise that has also been continued by Labour.

And another issue which caught my attention was Badenough's claim that the civil service has now grown too much and she will cut it back to the level of 2016. This rather overlooks that fact that much of the increase in the size of the civil service has happened because of Brexit. With all these barriers now imposed between Britain and her former partners in the EU, no wonder more staff have had to be taken on.

But Badenough at least came over as a bit more self-confident than previously. That will not be enough to save the Conservatives. Indeed, her speech will only be watched by a small number of people. No one is particularly interested in what they have to say.

So as the tumbleweed drifts through the Conservative conference as they pack up to head home, the Conservatives have not yet avoided the existential threat they face. Next year's elections will be the really big test. And if the Conservatives fall at that hurdle, that will probably be the end of them. However, 7 months is a long time in politics.

The Conservative ghost town

The first party conference I ever attended was at Buxton in 1984. It was a quaint spa town with assembly rooms small enough to accommodate the SDP. A few hundred people at most. Decades later and we are stuck with the usual venues for conference that are big enough to accommodate the thousands who now attend. Lib Dem conferences in recent years have alternated between Bournemouth and Brighton. There are the occasional conferences in Liverpool and Manchester. As long as we are not n Blackpool, everyone is happy.

Well, not quite so happy for Conservative members. It looks as though their conference in Manchester was a ghost town. Hardly anyone was there. Mel Stride, the Tory shadow chancellor, gave his speech on uncosted spending commitments and unaffordable tax cuts to a hall where over three quarters of the seats were empty. Sky News reported that there were far fewer exhibitors and partitions had been erected to close off much of the empty space. It's a far cry from the 1980s when Thatcher pulled in the crowds and the Tories were guaranteed to have the biggest conference going. As we stared enviously from the SDP conference in the phone box in the corner of the Old Assembly Rooms in Buxton 41 years ago, did we ever think the Tories would have to downsize to the likes of Buxton? What a strange world we now inhabit.

Lamesley action day

 

Gateshead Lib Dems had yet another action day on Saturday. This time it was in Lamesley ward. It was also the 2nd action day in Lamesley (soon to be renamed Birtley North and Lamesley) in the past month. 500 doors were knocked on and there was a positive response to us. The returns were terrible for Labour. This is not just in Lamesley. Everywhere we are canvassing, the result for Labour has been dire.

I was unable to get to the canvass myself as I was working on another Focus on Saturday. I caught up with the team for lunch where we were able to look through the canvass results. We also had a discussion about Labour's struggles to get candidates for the local elections in Gateshead next year. As there will be new boundaries, all 66 seats are up for election. A couple of weeks ago, a well placed source told me that Labour have only identified 42 possible candidates. More and more Labour councillors have indicated they will be retiring next year, adding to Labour's candidate woes.

If Labour are to avoid a repeat of what happened in Co Durham in May, when they dropped from over 50 seats to just 5, they had better pull their finger out in Gateshead, or face extinction.

Survey printing

 

I was in the Lib Dem office in Co Durham on Friday. My job was to print 500 surveys for the Lamesley Lib Dem Focus Team. They were due to do some more door knocking on Saturday. It was a quick job, less than 20 minutes to print the required numbers. I like jobs like that!