Tuesday, October 10, 2017

We have lost our balls

Theresa May tells us that on Brexit, "The ball is in their [EU's] court." Meanwhile, the EU Commission's Margaritis Schinas tells us, "The ball is entirely in the UK's court." Both can't be right. The missing balls highlight the overriding problem the UK faces in the negotiations. Forget the fantasy world in which the extreme Brexiteers believe we are a massively powerful nation on the world stage only held back from our superpower status by our membership of the EU. The reality is that we are a middle ranking power whose membership of the EU made us part of the most influential and powerful international organisation on the planet. Compared to the EU, we are small. Therefore, the negotiations are between a modest ranking power and a giant. Far from the EU begging us for a free trade deal and their needing us more that we need them, as claimed by the Brexit extremists, the reality is that the UK will have to make the vast majority of the concessions. Far from taking control, the UK will be under the direct influence of the EU and, thanks to our withdrawal from EU institutions, we will have no direct influence on the decisions of the EU.

The reality of this situation is dawning on the Tories. So far they have backed down on everything: payments to the EU, parallel discussion of the divorce settlement and future trading relations, a transition period and so on. The Conservatives (and Brexit loving people in Labour such as Corbyn) can whack their balls into the EU's court but the advantage lies largely with the EU.

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