I blogged about my doubts over opinion polls during the European election. My caution however appeared misplaced when the Lib Dems outpolled both Labour and the Conservatives. Since then, a number of polls show there is something of a 4-way divide across the Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem and Brexit parties in terms of share of the vote. Some of them continue to show Labour and Conservatives battling over 3rd and 4th place. But a YouGov poll on Friday particularly caught my attention, not because Labour and Conservatives were joint last, but because information was available at the constituency level.
In Blaydon constituency, Labour's vote has collapsed. The two beneficiaries are the Lib Dems and Brexit. The projection has us and the Farage party just about neck-and-neck. Labour are in 3rd place.
The figures are:
- Brexit Party 27.2%
- Lib Dems 26.8%
- Labour 25.9%
- Conservatives 10%
- Greens 5.8%
Blaydon is developing into a two horse race, and for once, Labour are not one of the horses!
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