Sunday, June 02, 2019

What negotiations?

After the European election results were announced, the Brexit Party demanded a seat at the negotiations with the EU over how we leave. The same demand has just been made by Trump, in his capacity as self-appointed leader of America First. This all strikes me as rather odd. The Brexit Party demands a No Deal Brexit. So what is there to negotiate about, at least in terms of how we leave? And if we leave without an agreement (the key Brexit Party demand), it is highly unlikely that there will be any negotiations on a future relationship. So quite what role there is for the Brexit Party in negotiations they believe should not happen now and won't happen in the future is not clear.

Trump has always made it clear that he backs Brexit. In terms of world politics, he wants no competition to his country's superpower status. America First means negotiating from strength with smaller countries many of which have smaller GDP than some of the big states of the USA. Such an approach is destroyed by the existence of the EU, itself a bigger economic superpower than the USA. The UK has an economy a fraction of the size of the off the USA. There is no way that negotiations between the UK and USA on trade could be anything other than totally one-sided in favour of America. That is why, in the Brexit negotiations, the EU has the upper hand - the UK is a fraction of the economic strength of the EU and in negotiations that is what counts. When Brexit Britain goes out into the big wide world to negotiate our own trade agreements, we will constantly bump up against the same problem. We will, of course, have thrown away the advantages that go with being part of the economic powerhouse of the EU.

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