By-election analysis - nearly every seat changed hands

They don't quite have the sparkle of the results of the past couple of weeks but nonetheless, yesterday's by-elections were still favourable for the Lib Dems.

Let's start with Okehampton, West Devon:

• The Greens were defending but lost. They weren't helped by their own failure to field a candidate. Why didn't someone from their surging claims of new members come forward to defend the seat? Anyway the Greens were a seat down even before a vote was cast.
• The winners were the Lib Dems, taking 57% of the vote. Vote shares above 50% are now quite rare for any party, given the fractured state of party politics. The Lib Dems did not stand last time this seat was fought so we came from nowhere to victory in one go.
• The Conservatives got a quarter of the vote, a drop of 6%. While this is not good for them, it is not as bad as some of the results they've had recently.
• As well as having a Green no-show, Labour and Reform were absent as well.

Seales, South Derbyshire

• Stoney ground for the Lib Dems, we didn't field a candidate in the last election. Alas, we came last.
• No Green candidate.
• An Independent was the victor taking a healthy 56% of the vote.
• Yet another dire result for Labour whose vote collapsed in a seat they were defending. They got 6%, less than a quarter of their previous share.
• Reform stood for the first time and jumped into 2nd place.
• Another miserable result for the Conservatives. Their share dropped from just over 20% to less than 10%.

Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages ward, Fife Council

• An SNP gain, is this part of an SNP recovery? They had a healthy share of the vote at 43%
• Yet another dire result for Labour who lost the seat and came third.
• Reform were second. Is this s sign that they do have some reach in Scotland?
• Lib Dems in 4th place but this is stoney ground for us.
• Yet again, no Green.

Fleckney, Harborough

• A bit disappointing, the seat went to Reform in a ward which has a Lib Dem councillor and had a Conservatives councillor (whose resignation sparked the by-election). Nevertheless, this was a Conservative loss.
• Reform took 35%, Lib Dems on 29% so the silver lining is that it is marginal.
• The defending Conservatives came third.
• The Greens' share dropped from 12% to 6%.

Castle ward, Newark and Sherwood

• A Reform gain from the Independents, this was another ward where the winning candidate (regardless of party) where the winner has less than 30%
• This was a so-near-and-yet-so-far result for the Conservatives. They trailed Reform by only 11 votes.

Westway, Tandridge

• A Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives based mainly on the Lib Dem vote share changing very little but the Conservative vote dropping significantly. We all need to get used to lower winning shares of the vote, given the increased number of parties now standing.
• The Conservatives tumbled into 3rd place, losing approximately half their share.
• Reform came 2nd, about 10% behind the Lib Dems.
• No Green candidate.
• Labour lost two-thirds of their vote share.

Lingfield and Crowhurst, Tandridge

• The only seat not to change hands, this was a hold for a residents' group.
• Reform were 2nd but not close enough to the winners to call it a marginal.
• The Conservatives were on 10%, down just 1%. For Conservatives, that must have been the highlight of the day.
• No Green candidate. (again).

The overall picture

• Lib Dems: we stood in all the byelections and got 2 gains and a near gain. A good outcome. 
• Reform: the bandwagon is still rolling with 2 gains.
• Conservatives: a poor performance, they are continuing to lose seats and vote share but they did manage to stand in all the byelections.
• Labour: a dire performance with their vote collapsing in every contest.
• Greens: increased opinion poll ratings and claims about a surge in members is not playing out on the ground. They stood in only 2 byelections and came nowhere. They even failed to defend a seat.