By-election analysis

Today we are analysing 7 by-elections, held yesterday. Again, the results were a bit mixed but the trend continues to show no Green surge, Labour and Conservatives doing appallingly badly, Reform's bandwagon is still rolling (though the wheels can sometimes come off) and the Lib Dems doing well but the absence of a handful of votes meant no net gains this week.

Let's start with Dumfries and Galloway (Stranraer and the Rhins ward)

• On first preferences, Reform were in the lead (just) but Scotland uses the single transferable vote in local elections so topping the poll on first preferences did not deliver victory.
• The Conservatives were the victors after a number of rounds of vote redistribution, a rare victory for them. The gain was from the Independents.
• The Conservative victory throws up the interesting prospect that Labour, Green and Lib Dem voters may be voting Conservative tactically to beat Reform, though this is assisted by preferential voting which is a key part of the STV voting system.

Stratford on Avon (Salford Priors and Alcester Rural)

• A Reform gain from the Conservatives who fell to third place.
• A case of so-near-and-yet-so-far: Reform's majority was a slender three votes over the Lib Dems.
• Labour and Greens were squeezed by the Lib Dems but to win next time, the Conservatives are going to have to be squeezed as well. This is a ward where the Conservatives previously took nearly 60% of the vote. Now they are the third party.

Stratford on Avon (Quinton)

• A 2nd bite of the cherry for Stratford, this was a Lib Dem defence and a comfortable hold with a modest increase in share of the vote.
• Reform were second on 33%, a typical share of the vote for them in council by-elections.
• The Conservatives were previously on 41%, breathing down the necks of the Lib Dems. This time, the Conservatives collapsed to 15%. It is possible that some of the drop in Conservative vote share was due to tactical voting to keep Reform out. However, the majority of the lost Conservative votes walked over to the Reform camp, finding themselves a new political home.
• Green and Labour were squeezed. Labour were in single figures. I've spotted other single figure results for Labour recently but they had all previously been town council elections.

East Sussex County Council (Ashdown and Conquest)

• Another Reform gain.
• Formerly a strong Conservative ward, they lost the seat and two thirds of their vote share and dropped to third place.
• The Greens were the runners up and put in a good performance, taking their vote from less than 10% to 25%.
• Yet another poor result for Labour. I looked at some of their digital campaigning in which they claimed that the contest was between Reform and Labour. Not many people believed them. Labour came in 4th place. The lesson for all parties is that tactical squeeze messages have to be realistic or otherwise people will see through them.

Cheshire East (Macclesfield Central)

• At last, something for the Greens to smile about. A Green gain from Labour in which they doubled their share of the vote.
• A poor result for Reform. They were 3rd and their share of the vote is half what they are typically getting in by-elections.
• The Labour nightmare continues. Another lost seat and vote share halved.

Trafford (Hale)

• This by-election has to be the oddest for some time.
• They must have put the bunting up as this was a gain for the Conservatives. A remarkably healthy 10% increase in share of the vote comfortably put the Conservatives ahead.
• It was one in and one out for the Greens. Here they lost the ward with their vote share dropping 10%.
• Reform got only 8%. I wonder if this is the lowest council by-election share so far for Reform.
• A noticeable absentee was the Labour party. Is this a straw in the wind? Are Labour finding it difficult to get candidates?

Redcar and Cleveland (South Bank)

• A tiny nugget of positive news for Labour who held the seat despite a strong campaign by Reform. Nevertheless, Labour had previously won over 60%. The ward has gone from safe to marginal.
• Reform took 44% of the vote, 3% behind Labour. The Reform vote was about 10% above its average by-election vote.
• The Conservatives were 3rd on 8%. It is not fertile territory for them.
• And it wasn't fertile for the Lib Dems either. There was no Lib Dem candidate. There are still electoral deserts for the Lib Dems and South Bank is one of them.