By-election analysis - picking up from last night

The bumper crop of council by-elections last week has left me struggling to keep up. My report yesterday covered 5 contests. This one covers the remaining 4.

Fort William and Ardnamurchan, Highlands Council

• There is something odd about the reporting of the SNP and Greens in vote share. The alleged "surge" for each of these parties never seems to match the ground war where they are either sluggish or are losing to others. In this ward, the SNP lost to the Lib Dems. That said, the SNP did have a vote share increase of 3.5%. 
• Last time Labour had 4.5%. With such a low share of the vote, it would have been understandable had they clung to their vote share. Sadly for Labour, they dropped from 4.5% to 3.8%. Stoney ground for them.
• Reform notched up a share of 9.6%. Since starting the weekly analysis of the by-election results a few months ago, this is the worst Reform share I have encountered. While Reform may he celebrating their win in West Lothian, they still have some way to go to establish themselves in the Scottish political landscape.
• The Greens had a modestly positive result, moving from 6% to 9.4% though it is hardly a surge.
• Interestingly, the Conservatives climbed from 4.4% to 7.6%. They're not dead in the water - yet.

Aveland, South Kesteven

• Another Reform gain, this time from the Conservatives. In normal times, this would have been a walk over for the Conservatives. Last time they had nearly 60%. This time, their share dropped 19%. 
• Reform did stand last time, scoring 14.5%. Last week they took 41%, leapfrogging into first place with a rise of  26.5%. The majority was a slender 10 votes.
• The Lib Dems got 26.9% last time,  position that would have given them a possible springboard to victory. But you can't win if you ain't got a candidate! The absence of a Lib Dem candidate suggests an area with a low base which is not being built up. Very disappointing.
• It strikes me however that without a Lib Dem candidate, the Conservatives could have run a squeeze campaign to hoover up the Lib Dem vote. It could be that this was not done (in which case the Conservatives are paying the price of a lost seat) or it was done (in which case Lib Dem voters are not prepared to vote Conservative tactically to beat Reform.)
• The Greens got 16.2%, a creditable performance having not stood the previous time. I suspect much of their vote came from the Lib Dems.
• Labour did not stand last time. This time they got 3.2%. Hardly a launchpad to Labour recovery.

Belmont, South Kesteven

• Not one, but two by-elections in the same council. How lucky can local voters be!? Yet again, however, it was a Reform gain, this time from the Independents.
• A case of so near and yet so far for the Conservatives. They missed out on a gain by a tiny two votes.
• It was a miserable day for the Independents. Not only did they lose the seat, they also lost well over half their vote share.
• Another contest without a Lib Dem candidate. The same comments apply as to Aveland.
• Greens stood for the first time and got a modest 8.5%.
• Labour got 19.4% last time. It nearly all evaporated in the heat of the by-election. This time they got 4.9%

And finally, Eaglescliffe West in Stockton-on-Tees.

• The Conservatives will be celebrating this for years to come. They will always remember what they were doing when they first learnt of their stonking win in Eaglescliffe.
• This is a strong Conservative ward and continues to be so. Their share rose 4.4% to 60.9%. The fact they were able to pull this off at a time in which the Conservatives are getting a drubbing is all the more remarkable.
• Missing from the line up are the Lib Dems. My comments about South Kesteven apply here.
• Reform took 24%, the Greens stood still and Labour had another meltdown, losing two thirds of their vote share.

In summary:

• Reform had 4 gains, no losses
• PC had 1 hold
• Labour had 2 losses and no holds
• Lib Dems had 2 gains and no losses
• Conservatives had 2 holds and a loss.

And a one word summary for each GB wide party as I see it:

• Reform - momentum
• Lib Dem - growing
• Conservative Party - alive
• Labour - meltdown
• Greens - unsurging