Election Maps by-election figures

I spotted the following council by-election results on Election Maps (https://electionmaps.uk/): contests since the local elections in May up to the end of the year. Pity Labour and Conservative by-election candidates. They are getting hammered. But the shares of the vote give us a good indication of how the parties are faring generally. There have been plenty of contests (nearly 200) so the figures are not significantly distorted by a handful of outlier results.

Shares of the votes in the council by-elections are:

• Reform 27.5% (up 23.9%). Their share of the vote is less than their opinion poll ratings though the recent polls have shown a downward movement.
• Lib Dems 19.7 (up 2%). Share of the vote is above most recent opinion poll ratings.
• Conservatives 16.4% (down 9%) Vote share is similar to their poll ratings.
• Labour 14.8% (down 11.5%) Again, vote share is similar to their opinion poll ratings.
• Greens 9.3% (down 0.3%) Share of the vote is significantly behind their opinion poll ratings.

With over three years to go before the next general election is held, the council by-election results are better applied to the coming local elections in May 2026. Labour will be defending a large number of Metropolitan council seats. Their situation has not been helped by the large number of Metropolitan councils that are facing all out elections due to boundary changes. With their vote so fragile in what are normally strongholds, Labour are looking over the precipice.

There are still four and a half months to go before the local (and Scottish and Welsh devolved) elections. Lots can change in that time. Nevertheless, the 2026 local elections could see more seats change hands than ever before. And Labour are heading for a huge drubbing.