I did not stay up for the result of the Gorton and Denton by-election on Thursday. Instead I woke up on Friday morning to learn of the Green Party's victory in the constituency. The good news is that Reform failed to take the constituency and this time it was not just a handful of votes in it. Labour's performance was an almost perfect match with local council by-elections. Labour are typically losing around half their vote share. This is exactly what happened in Gorton and Denton. If repeated in May's local, Welsh and Scottish elections, Labour will be hit by devastating losses.
The real winner of the by-election however was tactical voting. The Greens threw everything at the contest in its early stages and picked up momentum. Once it was clear in the public's mind that the Greens were the challengers to Reform, they could surf to victory on a wave of tactical votes and disappointment with the Labour government.
Absent from the Green campaign was anything about the environment and anything about their other policies. The downside of victory for the Greens however is that their policies are going to be put under the microscope. Election victories for them will therefore be much more challenging to achieve, given their hostility to NATO, their plans to abolish private rented housing and so on.
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