Be wary of projecting opinion polls

I have been in politics too long to be excited by opinion polls. Having seen stratospheric ratings for the SDP/Liberal Alliance in 1982, Lib Dem ratings within the margin of error of zero in 1989 after the Lib/SDP merger, poll ratings for the Lib Dems in the Blair years which were interpreted by Labour as the end of liberal democracy and 2010 poll ratings which overdid the Lib Dem vote, I tend to take them now with a large pinch of salt.

Opinion polls are guestimate snapshots. Useful for showing trends, getting an accurate prediction is something more challenging (remember the polls in 1992 and 2015). So, don't get carried away with polls this morning that put the Lib Dems ahead of the Conservatives in the European elections. Yes it is the case that the Brexit "Party" is almost certainly romping ahead of the field (but not with a majority of the votes) and Labour and especially the Conservatives are slipping badly. Yes, the Lib Dem vote is up a bit. But success also depends on having a party machine on the ground that can deliver victory.

The grassroots organisation of the Lib Dems is what ensured we survived the Coalition years. The same, but expanded, grassroots organisation delivered the big gains we made in the local elections earlier this month. The European elections are quite unique in that the need for a grassroots organisation to deliver a campaign is far, far less. As long as there is a list of candidates in each region, the rest of the campaign can be delivered from an office in London.

That advantage does not carry over to a general election in which 650 candidates and 650 agents are needed, as are 6500 signatures and lots of form filling, and that's without even thinking about a constituency campaign. So while the Brexit "Party" can mop up lots of votes in the European election, running a general election campaign that delivers the constituencies predicted as likely to go to them is a challenge which the Brexit "Party" will find extremely difficult to mount. Just look at the 2015 general election in which UKIP failed to win a single seat but scored a reasonable share of the vote.

My advisory note to Lib Dem colleagues is not to get carried away with rising poll ratings for the party. Effective targeting, as carried out in the local elections, is what wins elections.

And now I'm going to spend 2 hours of my Sunday lunchtime delivering 500 Lib Dem European election leaflets in Ryton.