Last by-elections of the year

 As I was away for a few days before Christmas, my look at the by-election results from 18th December are somewhat late. So here they are.

Greenlands (Blackpool)

• Another Reform gain from Labour, this contest was a bit unusual in that there had been a Reform candidate in the ward who got 6% last time. This time, Reform leapfrogged everyone from 4th to 1st place. Reform's share of the vote was higher than usual at 44%.
• The Conservatives dropped from 40% to 23%. In pre-Reform times, the Conservatives would have had high hopes of winning this contest. It was a Labour/Conservative marginal with Labour only 5% ahead. The Conservatives could feel pleased that they retained 2nd place but that needs to be viewed against a collapse in the Conservative vote. They held on to 2nd place simply because the Labour collapse was even greater.
• Meanwhile, it was yet another Labour loss and a drop from 1st to 3rd place. Labour's share was halved to 22%. Compared to other Labour losses recently, this disaster could be seen as an improvement as they have been losing up to three quarters of their vote share recently. So if this counts as good news for Labour, I wonder what a bad day would look like!
• The Greens came 4th but their vote share dropped from 10% to 6%.
• Lib Dems did not field a candidate last time. This time there was a Lib Dem candidate but vote share at 3% was minimal.

St Columb and Colan, Cornwall

• We don't get many of these but this was a Reform defence and hold. Their share dropped from 36% of 32%. The previous councillor had walked away from Reform (as had 4 others) and these losses led to Reform dropping from the largest to 2nd largest party on the council (the largest are now the Liberal Democrats. Reform will be relieved that they clung on.
• The Independent was the runner up though vote share was down from 29% to 25%. 
• Lib Dems had a significant rise in share of the vote (up 15% from 8% to 23%). It means the ward is in contention in future elections but the surge this time was not enough.
• The Greens fielded a candidate having not joined in the battle last time. They got a modestly respectable 13%. The question has to be asked: what if they hadn't stood this time? A Reform loss to the Lib Dems would have been a likely outcome.
• The Conservatives dropped from 17% to 6%, showing how far the rot has set in for them in the South West.
• Oh dear, what can we say about Labour, down from 9% to 1% (and even that figure was rounded up!) It is likely that Labour were squeezed heavily by the Lib Dems, with the Greens also taking some of their vote as well.

Logan, Market Harborough

• Let's hope we don't get many of results like this but this has to be a bit of a record breaker - a Conservative gain from the Lib Dems. I understand this is only the 2nd by-election since the May local elections in which the Conservatives have won a seat from the Lib Dems. And the first time was in this same ward. This is clearly an outlier result as it is so different to other contests. This result is a warning to Lib Dems - the Conservatives as an organisation are not dead (well not yet) and they can still make a comeback and bit us hard. 
• Since the first by-election, the Conservatives have put on 3%, taking them to 35%.
• The Greens have now moved into 2nd place, up 5% to 27%. This puts them in contention in this ward in the future. Given the lack of any good results for the Greens over the past few months in by-elections, they will be feeling happy about this one.
• Labour were on 3%, no change since the last contest. Compared to recent by-elections elsewhere, this is a good result for Labour!

Broad Oak, South Ribble

• A comfortable Lib Dem hold, in these days of fractured politics and multiple parties standing in by-elections, most contests are won on a share of the vote less than 40%. In this contest, the Lib Dems got 66%, exactly the same as the last time this ward was fought.
• Reform did not stand last time but they threw a great deal of resources at this battle and got 21%. This is below their typical vote share and their opinion poll ratings.
• The Conservatives vacated the position of runner up, dropping 9% to 8%.
• Labour were squeezed heavily, dropping from 17% to 5%.

Pakefield, Suffolk

• Another absolutely awful result for both Labour and the Conservatives who previously dominated this ward. Their vote shares were down 27% and 21% respectively.
• Reform stormed in from nowhere and won the seat, taking 49%.
• A good result for the Greens, standing for the first time and taking 19%. The ward is not yet in their grasp but with the right campaign, the Greens could over time challenge Reform here.
• A poor result for the Lib Dems, down from 145 to 5%.

So, the dire results for Labour and Conservatives continue and show no signs of improvement. Reform continue to pick up seats but as the South Ribble result shows, they can be pushed back. The Greens have had a better week in terms of share of the vote but they continue to fail to top the poll in any recent by-elections. And the Lib Dems have had a mixed week with a stonking hold and a rotten loss.

Next year there will be more by-elections which will be watched carefully as we move towards the local elections in May. On my home patch of Gateshead, we will have our first all-out elections since 2004. There will be an almighty battle to take control. For the first time since the council was created in 1974, Labour's hold is under serious threat. If recent by-elections are anything to go by, Labour's 52 year rule may be ended.