Friday, July 26, 2019

Be ready for an autumn election

I can't help but feel there is going to be an autumn general election. There has been a major clear out of the cabinet and Johnson is heading off on what looks very like an election tour. Having shown he can ruthlessly dump all his opponents in government as quickly as he can dump previously held political beliefs, a general election will also give him the opportunity to purge all opponents from the Conservative Parliamentary party. Those MPs not backing him will simply be replaced by candidates backing Johnson.

Were the UK to go for No Deal Brexit, Johnson will want the election over before 1st November so the election is not fought on the problems that go with crashing out. An election will also effectively close down Parliament for a few weeks, killing off temporarily the legislative wing of governance and the only barrier left in the way of No  Deal.

And another factor that could push us towards an early election is the state of the Labour Party. Their vote is in freefall. Corbyn is increasingly a millstone around Labour's neck. The starry-eyed Corbynistas must at some point realise that Corbyn is the problem rather than the solution to their current predicament and will get rid of him. So Johnson will want the election over before then. He'll want a big majority, just as May did in 2017. The snap election backfired then but that is not necessarily what would happen were there to be an election this autumn. There will need to be a great deal of emergency powers to make No Deal work. Johnson will need a big majority to ensure the emergency powers legislation is passed.

So, having campaigned in three elections this year (locals, European and PCC by-election), two as candidate myself, we may be heading for a fourth contest in 2019. Oh joy!

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