Thursday, July 04, 2019

Labour 4th yet again

As usual, please consider the health warning that comes with any opinion poll. Don't read too much into an individual poll's result but look at the trends instead. And so, yet again, we have another poll in which 4 parties are competing from a position of similar vote shares with Labour under Corbyn are in 4th place. As reported in the Independent, the results are:

  • Conservative 24%
  • Brexit 23%
  • Lib Dems 20%
  • Labour 18%
In effect we are in a period of 4 party politics. How long this will last is the big unknown. Britain could go back to 3 or even 2 party politics. Were that to happen, there is no guarantee that Labour will be one of those surviving parties. After all, if they can't make hay when the sun shines (Tories tearing themselves apart and currently leaderless with sluggish growth in the economy), how do they expect to survive when the political going gets tough?

Labour have now lost over half the vote they received in 2017. Fence sitting has pleased very few, except for the bleary eyed Corbynistas who think he walks on water.

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