Where's the Labour candidate?

There are just under 2 weeks left before Whickham North and Swalwell ward goes to the polls in a by-election to Gateshead Council. Yesterday, 12 Lib Dems delivered the whole ward with our latest Focus. The ward was once a Labour stronghold but they have lost every local election here since 1992. Nevertheless, Labour made the ward their top target in the North East a decade ago and came within about 20 votes of retaking it from the Lib Dems. Since then the Labour vote has been melting gradually away. So it was interesting to see Labour out in the ward yesterday. It's a rare event so make a note of it in your diary!

We did notice that Labour were canvassing the even-numbered houses on Whaggs Lane. Sadly, for Labour, these houses are actually in Dunston Hill and Whickham East ward, not Whickham North and Swalwell! The other side of the street is where the by-election is being held.

Meanwhile, Chipping Barnet based Labour MP for Gateshead Central and Whickham, Mark Ferguson, took to Twitter (now X) to show the world he is backing the Labour candidate in the by-election. Yet the group shot he included in his post did not include the Labour candidate. You would have thought it was sensible to include him! But the mystery of Labour's campaign doesn't stop there. Take a close look at the leaflets they are holding and none of them include the Labour candidate's name, at least on the visible side. Instead, these are leaflets about Mark Ferguson MP. Perhaps there was a Labour cock-up and they failed to get a by-election leaflet ready to deliver yesterday. Or maybe there is just a dose of incompetence in Labour's ranks. Booze up and breweries spring to mind.

You can read Mark Ferguson's post on this link.

There are two other parties in this contest: Greens and Tories. There has been no literature from the Greens. Perhaps they are still licking their wounds after their disastrous performance in the Bridges by-election last month. They fell from 2nd place to third while the Lib Dems jumped from 4th to 2nd. The ward is the only target the Greens have in Gateshead. And there has been nothing from the Tories either though the last time they delivered a local election leaflet in the ward was way back in the 1980s!

4 candidates in battle for Whickham North

Nominations for the Whickham North and Swalwell by-election closed at 4pm today. There are 4 candidates in the running - Labour, Conservatives, Greens and Lib Dems. Susan Craig is the Lib Dem candidate. Missing from the line up are Reform. Their absence was a bit of a surprise given they fielded a candidate in the Bridges by-election who, ironically, lives in Whickham North!

The absence of Reform has forced me to think again about the possible outcomes. I previously said that Labour dropping to third behind Reform was a possibility. Obviously not any more but the Greens' impact on the Labour vote may be something to keep an eye on. And will there be a Conservative revival? I think this is unlikely at the moment.

So saddle up for yet another electoral contest in Gateshead. By the time the by-election is held (24th October) we will have been in election campaigning mode for nearly 10 full months in 2024.

Sunniside Scarecrows

 

This is just a bit of fun but scarecrows will be populating Sunniside in late October. People are encouraged to take part by making their own scarecrow and putting it into their front garden or on display in their front window for everyone to see.

It's likely that mine will be modeled on me, given the scruffy clothes I often wear while mucking out my animals!

Sunniside scarecrows was first held last year and was a great success.

Conspiracy theorists at the Civic Centre

 

Gateshead has had more than its fair share of conspiracy theorists in recent years. The borough is home to the crackpot claim that street lights are fitted with 5G and are part of a "kill grid" designed to kill everyone. It seems not to have worked. We are still here! As are the conspiracy theorists pedaling other wacky claims. Many of them cheated the street light death rays to get to the Civic Centre for a demonstration last week. Anti-vaxers, haters of mainstream media, fluoride conspiracists and so on. I wonder if there were any attendees who believed other conspiracy theorists are actually part of a bigger conspiracy against the people! Now that would be funny!

Conference video diary Monday 16th September 2024

 

My first full day at the Lib Dem conference in Brighton. Fringe meetings, training events and conference debates attended. The best fringe meeting of the conference was held in the evening - the British Berry Growers Association!

No herding of cats needed - Lib Dem MPs take to the stage in Brighton

 

How long does it take to get 72 Lib Dem MPs onto the platform at Lib Dem conference for Ed Davey's speech? The answer is 2 minutes. No herding of cats needed as all the MPs were disciplined and went where they were told. We have certainly moved on from 2019 when all our MPs could have fitted into a camper van!

"All hope has gone" as Labour councillor goes independent

Yesterday brought news that Jane McCoid, Labour Councillor for Lamesley in Gateshead, has resigned from Labour and gone independent. The change does not alter the balance on the Council (Labour 47, Lib Dem 17, Independent 1 and 1 vacancy in a Lib Dem held seat). What was of more interest is the reasoning for her leaving Labour.

She joined Labour "when there was hope, and in my eyes all hope has gone." Labour's decision to axe the winter fuel allowance for most pensioners came in for heavy criticism. She described it as "an attack on vulnerable people". She was also critical of the decision to keep the 2-child benefit cap, the removal of which "would help to lift children and their families out of poverty." Meanwhile, Starmer's acceptance of freebie clothes did not go down well, at a time when some parents are struggling to cloth their children.

There have not been many resignations and defections during my 37 years on Gateshead Council. Normally, when they do happen, it often becomes apparent that the cause of the resignation boils down to personal rather than political issues. I get the impression this is not the case with Cllr McCoid. It seems this is a case of genuine difficulty with the direction of her own government. In many ways she reflects the discomfort many in the Labour party feel about the Starmer government. Jane McCoid has taken the decision to leave Labour. Is this just a flash in the pan or are others likely to follow?

Whickham North and Swalwell by-election

We have another by-election in Gateshead. On 24th October, Whickham North and Swalwell will go to the polls. This is a seat we are defending. Sonya Hawkins, who has represented the ward for 12 years, was promoted at work in the summer, making it difficult for her to attend meetings and give the role the full attention it deserves. She also has increased family caring responsibilities. She therefore took the decision to step down. Our candidate is Susan Craig. 

The result of the last election (May 2024) was:

• Lib Dems 1331
• Labour 614
• Conservatives 204
• Greens 149

Majority 717.

Historically, this was a Labour seat but they first lost to us in 1992. We then hoovered up the other two seats in the ward and it has remained Lib Dem ever since. Nevertheless, in 2011 Labour made Whickham North and Swalwell their top target in the North East and we held on by just 24 votes. Ever since then, Labour's vote has been a glacier in an age of global warming, melting away gradually.

The complicating factor in the by-election will be Reform, assuming they stand. At the last local elections, Reform stood in only one ward in Gateshead - Chowdene. If they do stand in the by-election, from whom will they take votes? There are parts of the ward which most people would describe as "traditional Labour". Could Reform grab some of those? This is an interesting question because if Reform are able to reach out to traditional Labour voters, and soak up a few Conservatives, Labour could fall to 3rd place. This would be a disaster for Labour in Gateshead and could put pressure on Labour Councillors to give Labour Leader Martin Gannon the boot.

This is only one of a number of scenarios and admittedly it is the most extreme. Nevertheless, it is a possibility. The Bridges ward by-election earlier this month may give us clues as to possible outcomes. The Green vote took a tumble though in Whickham North in May, they start from 4th rather than 2nd place. The Conservatives once held a seat in Whickham North. 42 years ago, in an all-out election, they squeezed in by a handful of votes to take one of the 3 seats from Labour. The following year they lost it. There is no sign of any Conservative activity or revival. In Bridges they were crushed, coming 5th. I suspect they will suffer something similar in Whickham North.

And finally, the first Lib Dem Focus since the announcement of the vacancy was delivered on Saturday 14th September. Sadly, I was unable to help as I was at the Bowes Agricultural Show. However, the whole ward was delivered in my absence in one day.

Conference video 15th September 2024

 

My conference video diary from Sunday 15th September - I had missed the first day of conference because I had been at an agricultural show on Saturday 14th. So on Sunday I arrived at Brighton in the evening just in time to get to the rather crowded councillors' reception where Ed Davey was speaking. Sadly I was stuck at the back of the room with lots of taller people in front of me!

Conference moves on to Harrogate

Brighton Lib Dem conference is behind us and so we now look ahead to next year. I haven't heard anything about the venue for Autumn but in Spring, we are heading to Harrogate. I am a bit disappointed that we are not in York, a city that is only an hour away by train for me. I also love the history of York and often use conference in the city as an opportunity to explore it. Nevertheless, Harrogate is a town with which I have some affinity. I worked there for Harrogate MP Phil Willis in 1997 for 6 months. We can also celebrate holding conference in Harrogate because it again has a Lib Dem MP. Tom Gordon picked up the seat from the Conservatives in July with a sturdy majority of over 8,000. Interestingly, Labour came 4th in July.

We can only dream of conference coming to Gateshead. Though the Glass House (formerly The Sage) hosted spring conference in 2012, the long awaited convention centre, which could host the bigger autumn conference, is still just a cleared site with not even a brick having been laid.

Final by-election photos

I didn't have time to sort the following photos taken on polling day last week in the Bridges by-election in Gateshead. So here they are a few days late. They were taken on polling day.

Cllr Paul Diston near one of the main roads in the ward. The diamond posters were seen by hundreds of people.

It rained in the afternoon. Fortunately, the shower did not last long though it was long enough to give Cllr Amanda Wintcher a soaking.

Historic Liberalism: I couldn't resist the opportunity to take a photo of myself in the street named after  William Gladstone, the greatest Victorian Liberal Prime Minister.

Good to see window posters on display for Lib Dem candidate Jonathan Aibi.

Delivering the polling day leaflet.