Saltwell action day

Gateshead Lib Dems had another action day, this time on Sunday. The ward we were working was Saltwell. The aim was to deliver about half the ward with the Central Gateshead Focus. While I was out delivering, I kept bumping into other Lib Dems with their bundles of leaflets. Sadly, something went wrong with my patches: I was 100 leaflets short. It will mean squeezing in a return visit to Saltwell this week, in between preparing for or attending Christmas light switch on events.

Final details for Wednesday

Councillors Marilynn Ord and Jonathan Mohammed and I met up with Planting Up Sunniside on Monday evening to sort out the final details of the Sunniside Christmas tree lights switch on event. It is the first community Christmas tree in Sunniside for 7 years so we are all getting rather excited about the event tomorrow. The biggest outstanding job was putting the lights onto the tree. This is no easy job given the size of the tree. The job was actually done today by the council, using one of the cherry pickers.

The big day is tomorrow. Meet at 5pm next to Sun Hill on Sunniside Front Street. The mayor will do the switch on at 5.30pm.

Bridges action day

 

Gateshead Lib Dems had another action day yesterday, this time in Bridges ward. 90% of the ward was delivered with the latest Focus newsletter. The noticeable point about Bridges ward is the almost complete disappearance of the Labour Party. They are nowhere to be seen despite (currently) holding the ward. I wonder if the rumours we hear are true - that Labour are struggling to find candidates and members prepared to go out campaigning across Gateshead. Meanwhile, lunch was in Tescos. I recommend the halloumi burger.

Whickham surgery

Yesterday I joined the other Whickham Lib Dem councillors to hold our advice surgery in Whickham Library. It was a busy session with quite a few people calling in for advice and help on a range of issues. It was also an opportunity for us to catch up with each other on a list of issues. As soon as the surgery was over, I headed to Bridges ward for an action day.

Full council photos

I wrote about Gateshead's full council meeting last week, before I was able to sort the photos I took in the council chamber. So here are the Lib Dem group members with the occasional Labour member in the background.

Meanwhile, here are a couple of photos of Labour voting against our motion opposing digital ID cards.

By-election analysis

Today we are analysing 7 by-elections, held yesterday. Again, the results were a bit mixed but the trend continues to show no Green surge, Labour and Conservatives doing appallingly badly, Reform's bandwagon is still rolling (though the wheels can sometimes come off) and the Lib Dems doing well but the absence of a handful of votes meant no net gains this week.

Let's start with Dumfries and Galloway (Stranraer and the Rhins ward)

• On first preferences, Reform were in the lead (just) but Scotland uses the single transferable vote in local elections so topping the poll on first preferences did not deliver victory.
• The Conservatives were the victors after a number of rounds of vote redistribution, a rare victory for them. The gain was from the Independents.
• The Conservative victory throws up the interesting prospect that Labour, Green and Lib Dem voters may be voting Conservative tactically to beat Reform, though this is assisted by preferential voting which is a key part of the STV voting system.

Stratford on Avon (Salford Priors and Alcester Rural)

• A Reform gain from the Conservatives who fell to third place.
• A case of so-near-and-yet-so-far: Reform's majority was a slender three votes over the Lib Dems.
• Labour and Greens were squeezed by the Lib Dems but to win next time, the Conservatives are going to have to be squeezed as well. This is a ward where the Conservatives previously took nearly 60% of the vote. Now they are the third party.

Stratford on Avon (Quinton)

• A 2nd bite of the cherry for Stratford, this was a Lib Dem defence and a comfortable hold with a modest increase in share of the vote.
• Reform were second on 33%, a typical share of the vote for them in council by-elections.
• The Conservatives were previously on 41%, breathing down the necks of the Lib Dems. This time, the Conservatives collapsed to 15%. It is possible that some of the drop in Conservative vote share was due to tactical voting to keep Reform out. However, the majority of the lost Conservative votes walked over to the Reform camp, finding themselves a new political home.
• Green and Labour were squeezed. Labour were in single figures. I've spotted other single figure results for Labour recently but they had all previously been town council elections.

East Sussex County Council (Ashdown and Conquest)

• Another Reform gain.
• Formerly a strong Conservative ward, they lost the seat and two thirds of their vote share and dropped to third place.
• The Greens were the runners up and put in a good performance, taking their vote from less than 10% to 25%.
• Yet another poor result for Labour. I looked at some of their digital campaigning in which they claimed that the contest was between Reform and Labour. Not many people believed them. Labour came in 4th place. The lesson for all parties is that tactical squeeze messages have to be realistic or otherwise people will see through them.

Cheshire East (Macclesfield Central)

• At last, something for the Greens to smile about. A Green gain from Labour in which they doubled their share of the vote.
• A poor result for Reform. They were 3rd and their share of the vote is half what they are typically getting in by-elections.
• The Labour nightmare continues. Another lost seat and vote share halved.

Trafford (Hale)

• This by-election has to be the oddest for some time.
• They must have put the bunting up as this was a gain for the Conservatives. A remarkably healthy 10% increase in share of the vote comfortably put the Conservatives ahead.
• It was one in and one out for the Greens. Here they lost the ward with their vote share dropping 10%.
• Reform got only 8%. I wonder if this is the lowest council by-election share so far for Reform.
• A noticeable absentee was the Labour party. Is this a straw in the wind? Are Labour finding it difficult to get candidates?

Redcar and Cleveland (South Bank)

• A tiny nugget of positive news for Labour who held the seat despite a strong campaign by Reform. Nevertheless, Labour had previously won over 60%. The ward has gone from safe to marginal.
• Reform took 44% of the vote, 3% behind Labour. The Reform vote was about 10% above its average by-election vote.
• The Conservatives were 3rd on 8%. It is not fertile territory for them.
• And it wasn't fertile for the Lib Dems either. There was no Lib Dem candidate. There are still electoral deserts for the Lib Dems and South Bank is one of them.

Love bombed by Labour

We had full a council meeting yesterday in Gateshead. It started off in a rather unexpected manner. Labour leader Martin Gannon addressed us in an unusually friendly manner. He was considerate in response to views and ideas put forward by Lib Dem Leader Ron Beadle. And even more surprising was Cllr John Adams who heaped praise on my skills in checking grammar, punctuation and spelling. I felt as if I had just been love bombed by Labour!

This little love-in did not last. After the first motion, the unanimity rapidly disappeared. Words were exchanged between the two groups on our call to oppose digital ID cards. Labour voted against the motion. The love-in had ended and everything went back to normal!

Locked in at the Civic Centre

 

The AGM of Gateshead Lib Dems was held on Monday evening. There were around 40 members present (it's normally a lot lower!) Officer positions were filled, as were the executive ordinary places. There was also a speech by Ron Beadle, Lib Dem leader on Gateshead Council, about the local elections next year and the work we are putting in to the campaign.

When the meeting finished, we headed downstairs to leave the meeting. Alas, all the doors were locked and we had visions of being trapped in the Civic Centre overnight. Whether we could sleep through the alarm going off was another matter! Security had forgotten to check the meeting rooms but we got word they were on their way. The police beat them to the Civic Centre. Eventually the front door was opened and we were able to leave. A letter of apology from security was received the next morning!

It's up!

 

It's up! The first community Christmas tree in Sunniside since 2018 is now in place. Myself and Councillors Marilynn Ord and Jonathan Mohammed, were determined that this year Sunniside will have a Christmas tree. We've worked with Planting Up Sunniside, the local group that has taken on the task of ensuring we have a tree in the village. We also met with officers to arrange the funding. So, join us at 5pm on Wednesday 26th November for live music, Christmas donkeys and the lights switch on by the mayor. All welcome.

North East Lib Dem conference with guest star Ed Davey!

 

Today was spent in Spennymoor, enjoying the delights of North East Lib Dems regional conference. There were 13 members from Gateshead, the biggest of any local party. (See photo above.) My thanks to Ron Beadle, Lib Dem Leader of the Opposition in Gateshead who gave a speech about why members should come to Gateshead to help us make gains in the local elections next year. Ron reminded the audience that I have done nearly 39 years on the council. But we also have a team of young members keen to get elected.

In the afternoon, Ed Davey was the guest speaker. I was there with a roving camera, as usual. As you can see, Ed joined the Gateshead members for a photo call. So, a good time was had by all.

Birtley action day

 

Yesterday, Saturday 15th November, 2025, saw yet another Lib Dem action day, this time in Birtley South. I'm not sure how many turned up to help as I was there early and left with two patches to do before helpers started turning up. Most of the ward was however delivered. Just a mopping up operation to complete the job.

Axing the Police and Crime Commissioners - 6 years late

 

Six years ago I was the Lib Dem candidate in the Northumbria Police and Crime Commissioner by-election. I campaigned simply to have the PCCs abolished. Our regional newspaper, The Journal, put my call on the front page! All the other candidates campaigned to keep the PCCs in place. Today I'm pleased to see that the government are planning to scrap the role. Not before time! PCCs were an expensive experiment that did nothing to bring policing closer to the people. A pity they are six years late!

Merging the PCC role with the regional mayoral position is sensible. I speak as someone who is not necessarily a fan of the current mayoral system but it is the only show in town in terms of English devolution. The overview of policing is a strategic function so it makes sense to put it with the regional mayors. I can see however a problem in the North East. NECA covers two PCCs - Northumbria and Co Durham. The latter includes Darlington which is also part of the Teeside mayoral authority. So there will have to be a carve up to transfer Darlington to the Tees Valley. Hopefully that will not delay the scrapping of PCCs generally.

Gateshead West branch meeting

Gateshead West Lib Dem branch meeting was held last night in Winlaton. Most of the meeting was taken up with planning for the local elections next year and with reporting back on ward campaigns. Ward Focuses have been or are about to be delivered in Ryton, Whickham North and Swalwell, Whickham South and Sunniside, Dunston Hill and Whickham East, Birtley North and Lamesley and Birtley South. Notice we are now calling the wards by their new names as we will be fighting the local elections next year under new boundaries. Delivery patches have been revised to take these into account.

The most important issue reported to the meeting was the Christmas dinner! We have booked the Soho Tavern in Kibblesworth. I tried out the restaurant a few weeks ago and can thoroughly recommend it.

Photos from Whickham's Remembrance Parade

 

On Sunday, the Remembrance parade and wreath laying service in Whickham took place. It was well attended with over 40 wreaths laid and around 1500 people attending.

You can see our full set of photos of the day on this link.

Streetgate Remembrance display

 

Thank you to Planting Up Sunniside for the Remembrance display in Streetgate.

Whickham South and Sunniside action day

 

We had a team of 10 in Whickham South and Sunniside today to deliver our latest Focus newsletters. My original plan was to do one edition for the whole ward but we had too much to report on. So we had two editions instead, one for Sunniside and the villages and one for Whickham South. Thanks to everyone who helped. Most of the ward is now delivered. We have a small number of patches still to do, what I call the mopping up operation.

Just back from the printers

 

I took delivery of 2000 Sunniside Focuses yesterday. My next job is to bundle them into their patches. Tomorrow we start delivering them! They all have to be out before 26th November. That's when the Christmas tree lights switch on is happening, and the front page of the Focus is all about it.

By-election analysis - nearly every seat changed hands

They don't quite have the sparkle of the results of the past couple of weeks but nonetheless, yesterday's by-elections were still favourable for the Lib Dems.

Let's start with Okehampton, West Devon:

• The Greens were defending but lost. They weren't helped by their own failure to field a candidate. Why didn't someone from their surging claims of new members come forward to defend the seat? Anyway the Greens were a seat down even before a vote was cast.
• The winners were the Lib Dems, taking 57% of the vote. Vote shares above 50% are now quite rare for any party, given the fractured state of party politics. The Lib Dems did not stand last time this seat was fought so we came from nowhere to victory in one go.
• The Conservatives got a quarter of the vote, a drop of 6%. While this is not good for them, it is not as bad as some of the results they've had recently.
• As well as having a Green no-show, Labour and Reform were absent as well.

Seales, South Derbyshire

• Stoney ground for the Lib Dems, we didn't field a candidate in the last election. Alas, we came last.
• No Green candidate.
• An Independent was the victor taking a healthy 56% of the vote.
• Yet another dire result for Labour whose vote collapsed in a seat they were defending. They got 6%, less than a quarter of their previous share.
• Reform stood for the first time and jumped into 2nd place.
• Another miserable result for the Conservatives. Their share dropped from just over 20% to less than 10%.

Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages ward, Fife Council

• An SNP gain, is this part of an SNP recovery? They had a healthy share of the vote at 43%
• Yet another dire result for Labour who lost the seat and came third.
• Reform were second. Is this s sign that they do have some reach in Scotland?
• Lib Dems in 4th place but this is stoney ground for us.
• Yet again, no Green.

Fleckney, Harborough

• A bit disappointing, the seat went to Reform in a ward which has a Lib Dem councillor and had a Conservatives councillor (whose resignation sparked the by-election). Nevertheless, this was a Conservative loss.
• Reform took 35%, Lib Dems on 29% so the silver lining is that it is marginal.
• The defending Conservatives came third.
• The Greens' share dropped from 12% to 6%.

Castle ward, Newark and Sherwood

• A Reform gain from the Independents, this was another ward where the winning candidate (regardless of party) where the winner has less than 30%
• This was a so-near-and-yet-so-far result for the Conservatives. They trailed Reform by only 11 votes.

Westway, Tandridge

• A Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives based mainly on the Lib Dem vote share changing very little but the Conservative vote dropping significantly. We all need to get used to lower winning shares of the vote, given the increased number of parties now standing.
• The Conservatives tumbled into 3rd place, losing approximately half their share.
• Reform came 2nd, about 10% behind the Lib Dems.
• No Green candidate.
• Labour lost two-thirds of their vote share.

Lingfield and Crowhurst, Tandridge

• The only seat not to change hands, this was a hold for a residents' group.
• Reform were 2nd but not close enough to the winners to call it a marginal.
• The Conservatives were on 10%, down just 1%. For Conservatives, that must have been the highlight of the day.
• No Green candidate. (again).

The overall picture

• Lib Dems: we stood in all the byelections and got 2 gains and a near gain. A good outcome. 
• Reform: the bandwagon is still rolling with 2 gains.
• Conservatives: a poor performance, they are continuing to lose seats and vote share but they did manage to stand in all the byelections.
• Labour: a dire performance with their vote collapsing in every contest.
• Greens: increased opinion poll ratings and claims about a surge in members is not playing out on the ground. They stood in only 2 byelections and came nowhere. They even failed to defend a seat. 

Taking the biscuit

 

Last night I chaired the meeting of Sunniside History Society at Sunniside Social Club. The speaker was Dr Paul Stott who used to work as a naval architect in the shipbuilding industry in the North East before moving into the world of academia where he lectured on the industry of which he had lots of practical experience.

Paul's presentation looked at the decline of UK shipbuilding from its peak in the late Victorian period to the current state. Restrictive practices, inadequate management, failure to invest long term, challenging working conditions, failure to retrain and the resistance to switching from riveting to welding all had their part to play.

Meanwhile, at the interval, I drew the raffle and the first ticket out belong to, ahem, a certain Jonathan Wallace. I won a packet of chocolate chip cookies!

Poppies on display

 

Large Remembrance poppies have started to appear in Sunniside. Thank you to the volunteers from Planting Up Sunniside who have been hard at work placing the poppies around the village.

Planting Up Sunniside meeting

Planting Up Sunniside held their monthly meeting on Tuesday and I was invited to come along and discuss a number of issues with them. Most of them was about the Christmas tree switch on event on Wednesday 26th November. Most of the details are now sorted. There will be live music and the mayor will do the switch on at 5.30pm. I've also arranged for three donkeys to be there (my links to farming and stables are always useful!)

Also discussed were the bulb planting on Hole Lane in Sunniside, the scarecrow festival, Streetgate Christmas tree, Remembrance poppies and a number of other issues. So, a very productive meeting.

Tynesider montage

 

A few photos from last weeks Gateshead Lib Dem social at the Tynesider on Gateshead High Street.

Revised bar chart looks even better

 

Last week I posted a bar chart of council by-elections in October. It seems I jumped the gun. A revised bar chart has since been circulated which is an improvement on what was already a good result.

Every party expects to make some losses in council by-elections but since the May local elections the Lib Dems have defended 28 seats and lost only 2. For all my years in politics, I've never known the Lib Dems to have such a high retention level.

Although the number of Reform by-election defences is only 8, they held only 4, a retention rate of just 50%. Admittedly this is much better than the Conservatives and Labour but it does take the sheen off Reforms performance.

Back to the bar chart above: in October the Lib Dems clocked up the most wins at 16. Reform managed a respectable 13 but almost certainly lost more to resignations, suspensions, expulsions and defections. The Conservatives at three and Labour on two mean they are losing the majority of their by-election defences. Meanwhile, the long awaited Green surge is still awaited.

The face of Halloween

 

A bit of a fun night last Friday as we sat at home waiting for the next knock on the door. I think we overdid the sweets however. Five big boxes of chocolates ended up being too much. It looks like what's left over will go to the Sunniside History Society meeting on Wednesday to be raffle prizes! I suspect I won't be taking the mask with me.

Shipbuilding under review at History Society meeting

 

Sunniside History Society will be meeting at 7pm on Wednesday 5th November at Sunniside Social Club. The speaker is Dr Paul Stott who will be talking about the shipbuilding industry in the North East. I will be chairing the meeting.

Another bar chart to finish the month

 

An interesting bar chart from Lib Dem HQ. I think it speaks for itself.

Back to the Tynesider

 

The final Thursday evening each month has grown into a bit of a social event for Gateshead Lib Dems. The last one was held yesterday at the Tynesider on Gateshead High Street. The video above is a slide show of the event.

By-elections: the analysis

Yesterday saw another good crop of Lib Dem council by-election results. Let's start with the main headline: Lib Dem gain from Reform in Worcestershire. This was one of the councils which, in May, switched to the Reform insurgents. 

Yesterday, a by-election was held in Bromsgrove South. We won it! Key points are:

• Reform loss means Lib Dem gain;
• The Greens failed to stand a candidate (where is this so-called Green surge?);
• Before Reform, this was a strong Conservative ward. Yesterday the Conservatives managed a miserable 11%;
• The Lib Dems took over half the votes cast. Winning 50% of the vote in an individual ward has become something of a glass ceiling for all parties. Multi-party politics means more choice but it becomes far more challenging to reach the point where half of voters back a particular party.

The next ward to consider is St John's in Tunbridge Wells.

• Lib Dem hold but again, we took over half the votes cast.
• The ward is in a Lib Dem parliamentary constituency (Tunbridge Wells) which suggests Lib Dem supporters are voting Lib Dem at both local and national level. Previously, in most parts of the country, getting those who vote Lib Dem locally to do so nationally has been something of a challenge.
• Reform got only 15%, well down on their opinion poll ratings and usual by-election vote share. It suggests that in areas where the Lib Dems are well organised, Reform find it difficult to make progress.
• There was no Labour candidate. Is this a straw in the wind that Labour's organisaton is crumbling?
• Will Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells be happy with this result?

Garlinge in Thanet is an area where Reform are doing well already.

• Reform won, taking the seat from a local party. They got a share of the vote greater than their usual 25-35% range. That should make them smile.
• At 32%, this share of the vote is relatively high for the Conservatives and they even managed to vote share increase of 12%. This is however something of a one-off. Their vote share elsewhere is poor.
• Labour dropped from 20% to 8%. This reflects what is happening elsewhere - Labour are losing over half their vote share.
• This is stoney ground for the Greens but the Green surge remains hidden here. Their vote share fell by a small margin.
• This is also stoney ground for the Lib Dems. Nevertheless, we had a candidate in the ward for the first time in 20 years.

Roebuck in Stevenage waved goodbye to Labour.

• A gain by Reform from Labour, adding to to the forever growing pile of lost Labour seats.
• This was an unusal result in that Lab, Cons, Greens and Lib Dems all lost vote share to Reform who were standing for the first time.
• The Greens came last but managed to keep their Green surge well hidden.

Hendon in Barnet - get your bugles ready to announce something rare.

• A Conservative hold and their drop in vote share was only 2.5%. At 46% of the vote, the Tories can feel pleased with this result. A pity for them they have little else to celebrate.
• Reform were runners up but they were some distance from the winning post.
• Another Green surge disguised as a drop in share of the vote.

And finally, from across the border, a by-election in Stirling East

• It was not good news for the Conservatives. They lost the seat and ended up in 4th place on 7% of the vote.
• The SNP were the winners.
• We found the Green surge - their vote shot up a whopping 1%.
• Reform got 23%, a rise of 9%, the biggest rise for any party in this ward. Nevertheless, their share is about 10% less than in the rest of the UK, suggesting Reform's reach into Scotland is more limited.

So what to make of the 6 by-elections?

• A good set of results for the Lib Dems with a gain and a successful defence and we stood in all the by-elections. However, there are areas of the country where our reach is limited. How do we turn that around?
• Someone must have turned the Green surge into organic mulch and dumped it on the compost heap.
• Conservatives continue to shrink though the Hendon result suggests they can't be written off....yet.
• Reform had a mixed night with 2 gains but also a loss to the Lib Dems. They need to look over their shoulder at the Lib Dems.
• Labour continue to lose significant vote share and show no signs of electoral recovery.

Scarecrow festival in Streetgate

 

It started last year - people in Streetgate, one of the villages I represent as a councillor, made scarecrows and displayed them in their gardens. The newly established soon-to-be-a tradition this year has seen lots of Halloween decorations put up as well. Lots of residents are joining in the fun. I've included quite a few photos of the displays in the video above.

Planning the switch on

Last night, my two ward colleagues - Jonathan Mohammed and Marilynn Ord - and I met up with Planting Up Sunniside in Sunniside Club to sort out some of the details of the Christmas tree switch on event on 26th November. The switch-on will be on 26th November on the grassed area opposite Sun Hill. at about 5pm. More details to follow.

Let them eat lunch

 

We have a simple rule in Gateshead Lib Dems for action days: always go for lunch together in a local hostelry or in a member's house. On Saturday, at the end of our action day in Dunston Hill and Whickham East, we gathered at the Waggon Team pub near Lobley Hill. Very nice!

Dunston Hill and Whickham East action day

 

On Saturday, while some Lib Dem members in Gateshead were running the Whickham surgery, others were in Dunston Hill and Whickham East where we were delivering the latest Focus newsletter. Most patches were completed with the remainder done on Sunday. Next ward in the action day pipeline is Whickham North and Swalwell.

Saturday's surgery

 

The Whickham councillors held their monthly advice surgery at Whickham Library on Saturday. Of the 9 of us, five were at the surgery and four of us were in Dunston delivering Focus newsletters. Issues raised included the national minimum wage (not quite our responsibility as councillors) and Chase Park.

By-election boost for the Lib Dems

 

This is quite interesting. In all the by-elections held since May's local elections, Reform and the Lib Dems are significantly ahead of the other parties in terms of seats won. Add the Conservative, Labour and Greens together and their figures still fall short of the Lib Dem total. Happy days!

Focus production line

It feels as though I have been on a Focus newsletter production line this month. So far I have written and put together five editions. These boxes arrived at the home of one of our councillors last week. An action day is fast approaching to deliver this Focus. I have one left to write for the current round and it's actually for my ward!

First job on my return

 

I was away from home for a couple of days last week. Sadly, Ann, my mother-in-law, passed away in September. Her funeral was in Kent.

On my return home, my first job was to remove the sack of vegetation that have been left at Church Green in Whickham. Plant Up Whickham had stripped out all the flower beds while I was away. My job was to remove the sacks to my farm where we turn it into compost. It took two journeys with my pick up. This is not the end of the job. The volunteers will be replanting the flowerbeds shortly.

Lessons from Caerphilly

I got the result of the Caerphilly by-election this morning (I decided against staying up all night to await the outcome). The key points I have taken from the result are listed below but the big winner of the night was tactical voting. Turnout was the big surprise of the night and Labour and Reform were jointly the biggest losers.

Tactical voting

This is what killed off the supremacy of Labour in the constituency and the challenge of Reform. Once it became obvious that Labour were dropping to third place, they were trapped in a third party squeeze. For Labour in Caerphilly, this was a new experience, having dominated the constituency for a century. It was also the key to Plaid's win. Without it, they probably would have lost to Reform.

Labour's collapse

Labour's share of the vote dropped by three quarters. This is worse than most council by-elections where typically Labour are losing half their vote share. A drop of three quarters would wipe out Labour in first-past-the-post elections.

Labour voters backing Reform

There have always been right leaning, socially conservative Labour voters. They vote Labour without enthusiasm or simply stay at home on polling day. Before Reform, they had no alternative party to back. This has fundamentally changed. Reform are happily hunting for rightwing Labour supporters who now form a key part of the Reform-backing coalition.

Reform can be beaten

Since the general election, too many people have watched in horror at the rise of Reform, incorrectly believing they can't be beaten.  Relying on Labour to defeat Reform is a non-starter but Caerphilly does demonstrate that the Reform challenge can be driven back. Look at the council by-elections held yesterday and you can see that Reform can by stopped in their tracks, at least by the Lib Dems.

Reform's share of the vote is stuck

The opinion polls put Reform on a range of about 25% to 36%. By-elections (including Caerphilly) typically see Reform on about 30-35%. They struggle to outperform these levels of support. Projections based on opinion polling may give super-sized majorities in the Commons to Reform but factor in tactical voting and the constant infighting that saps Reform's internal strength, and somehow, Reform don't seem to be as invincible as many believe.

So the lessons to take from Caerphilly are that Reform can be beaten, tactical voting can work and Labour are facing an existential threat.

Nationalist or Reform

Were I a voter in Caerphilly, I would be faced with the unenviable task of voting for the Welsh Nationalists to beat Reform. Don't get me wrong - I am no fan of nationalism but Plaid Cymru are the only party able to beat Reform in this by-election. It's a remarkable state of affairs when Labour lose their stronghold to slump into 3rd position. (I am writing this before the result is known but all the indications are of a close battle between the Nationalists and Reform.) Labour, the one time masters of Caerphilly are now being squeezed as the third party. Many of those wishing to keep out Reform will have held their nose while voting Plaid. This wasn't a case of people turning positively to nationalism. This was a case of people voting for something bad to avoid something even worse. What a mess!

Bridging the gap

 

A Lib Dem team has been out in Bridges ward of Gateshead recently to deliver the latest Focus. The Lib Dems are now the only party campaigning in the ward. No other party is bothering to keep in touch with residents.

Losing money for a good cause

 

On Saturday 18th October 2025, Light Up Whickham held a race night to raise funds for Whickham's Christmas tree. A bunch of Lib Dems turned up. A good time was had by all. I lost a great deal of money for a good cause.

The inevitable Lib Dem bar chart

 

I was a bit too quick yesterday when posting about the by-elections held on Thursday. More results came in after I wrote the blog post. Thankfully HQ have inevitably produced a bar chart of the overall results. We made gains from Labour, Conservatives and Greens and topped the poll in 7 by-elections.

Race Night tomorrow

 

I'll be there!