Election campaign: keep your feet on the ground

I have been involved in 11 general elections since I first became involved with politics 43 years ago. But I have not before witnessed what is happening now. 1983, 1987, 1997, 2001 and 2019 were elections that were predictable landslides. The current election has the same smell to it. But the big difference is the split in the right. This is something I've not experienced before and it is driving the election to a point where extreme outcomes are possible.

Firstly, the likelihood is a record Labour majority and total number of seats but with a share of the vote that years ago would have lost a party a general election. Secondly, the collapse of the Conservative party and the shredding of the number of seats they hold could potentially strip them of their position of one of the two main parties in the Commons. While I think it is unlikely to happen, the fact we are talking about the Conservatives dropping to 3rd place in the Commons is remarkable. Thirdly, the projected outcome for the Lib Dems could see the party for the first time in a century get a share of seats in the Commons that is close to the share of the vote. Fourthly, Reform is to take the Lib Dem crown of the party most under-represented in Parliament because of the first-past-the-post voting system.

The election still has four days to run but time is running out for something to happen that can save the Conservatives. It is unlikely that the cavalry will come to their rescue. The danger for Lib Dems now is that members will turn up to counts of Thursday evening full of hope that seats previously thought beyond our reach will be won. We need to be cautious. To win a constituency, we do not need a high opinion poll rating (though it helps), Instead we need the campaign infrastructure on the ground to deliver election victory. At the start of 2024, I think it is fair to say that our expectations for the general election were less than they are now. With the polls showing we could be winning 70 seats, we may not necessarily have the fully honed grassroots infrastructure needed to deliver victory. So while I enjoy the idea that we could move ahead of the Conservatives and become the official opposition, my prediction is more modest. 40 seats seems to me to be realistic. It gives us a significantly enlarged parliamentary party and gets us back into third place in the Commons.

So, fellow Liberal Democrats, keep your feet on the ground rather than have your head in the clouds. (Though if you are in the clouds, say hello to Ed Davey as he zooms past doing a skydive as part of another stunt!)