Whickham North and Swalwell by-election

We have another by-election in Gateshead. On 24th October, Whickham North and Swalwell will go to the polls. This is a seat we are defending. Sonya Hawkins, who has represented the ward for 12 years, was promoted at work in the summer, making it difficult for her to attend meetings and give the role the full attention it deserves. She also has increased family caring responsibilities. She therefore took the decision to step down. Our candidate is Susan Craig. 

The result of the last election (May 2024) was:

• Lib Dems 1331
• Labour 614
• Conservatives 204
• Greens 149

Majority 717.

Historically, this was a Labour seat but they first lost to us in 1992. We then hoovered up the other two seats in the ward and it has remained Lib Dem ever since. Nevertheless, in 2011 Labour made Whickham North and Swalwell their top target in the North East and we held on by just 24 votes. Ever since then, Labour's vote has been a glacier in an age of global warming, melting away gradually.

The complicating factor in the by-election will be Reform, assuming they stand. At the last local elections, Reform stood in only one ward in Gateshead - Chowdene. If they do stand in the by-election, from whom will they take votes? There are parts of the ward which most people would describe as "traditional Labour". Could Reform grab some of those? This is an interesting question because if Reform are able to reach out to traditional Labour voters, and soak up a few Conservatives, Labour could fall to 3rd place. This would be a disaster for Labour in Gateshead and could put pressure on Labour Councillors to give Labour Leader Martin Gannon the boot.

This is only one of a number of scenarios and admittedly it is the most extreme. Nevertheless, it is a possibility. The Bridges ward by-election earlier this month may give us clues as to possible outcomes. The Green vote took a tumble though in Whickham North in May, they start from 4th rather than 2nd place. The Conservatives once held a seat in Whickham North. 42 years ago, in an all-out election, they squeezed in by a handful of votes to take one of the 3 seats from Labour. The following year they lost it. There is no sign of any Conservative activity or revival. In Bridges they were crushed, coming 5th. I suspect they will suffer something similar in Whickham North.

And finally, the first Lib Dem Focus since the announcement of the vacancy was delivered on Saturday 14th September. Sadly, I was unable to help as I was at the Bowes Agricultural Show. However, the whole ward was delivered in my absence in one day.