By-elections: the analysis

Yesterday saw another good crop of Lib Dem council by-election results. Let's start with the main headline: Lib Dem gain from Reform in Worcestershire. This was one of the councils which, in May, switched to the Reform insurgents. 

Yesterday, a by-election was held in Bromsgrove South. We won it! Key points are:

• Reform loss means Lib Dem gain;
• The Greens failed to stand a candidate (where is this so-called Green surge?);
• Before Reform, this was a strong Conservative ward. Yesterday the Conservatives managed a miserable 11%;
• The Lib Dems took over half the votes cast. Winning 50% of the vote in an individual ward has become something of a glass ceiling for all parties. Multi-party politics means more choice but it becomes far more challenging to reach the point where half of voters back a particular party.

The next ward to consider is St John's in Tunbridge Wells.

• Lib Dem hold but again, we took over half the votes cast.
• The ward is in a Lib Dem parliamentary constituency (Tunbridge Wells) which suggests Lib Dem supporters are voting Lib Dem at both local and national level. Previously, in most parts of the country, getting those who vote Lib Dem locally to do so nationally has been something of a challenge.
• Reform got only 15%, well down on their opinion poll ratings and usual by-election vote share. It suggests that in areas where the Lib Dems are well organised, Reform find it difficult to make progress.
• There was no Labour candidate. Is this a straw in the wind that Labour's organisaton is crumbling?
• Will Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells be happy with this result?

Garlinge in Thanet is an area where Reform are doing well already.

• Reform won, taking the seat from a local party. They got a share of the vote greater than their usual 25-35% range. That should make them smile.
• At 32%, this share of the vote is relatively high for the Conservatives and they even managed to vote share increase of 12%. This is however something of a one-off. Their vote share elsewhere is poor.
• Labour dropped from 20% to 8%. This reflects what is happening elsewhere - Labour are losing over half their vote share.
• This is stoney ground for the Greens but the Green surge remains hidden here. Their vote share fell by a small margin.
• This is also stoney ground for the Lib Dems. Nevertheless, we had a candidate in the ward for the first time in 20 years.

Roebuck in Stevenage waved goodbye to Labour.

• A gain by Reform from Labour, adding to to the forever growing pile of lost Labour seats.
• This was an unusal result in that Lab, Cons, Greens and Lib Dems all lost vote share to Reform who were standing for the first time.
• The Greens came last but managed to keep their Green surge well hidden.

Hendon in Barnet - get your bugles ready to announce something rare.

• A Conservative hold and their drop in vote share was only 2.5%. At 46% of the vote, the Tories can feel pleased with this result. A pity for them they have little else to celebrate.
• Reform were runners up but they were some distance from the winning post.
• Another Green surge disguised as a drop in share of the vote.

And finally, from across the border, a by-election in Stirling East

• It was not good news for the Conservatives. They lost the seat and ended up in 4th place on 7% of the vote.
• The SNP were the winners.
• We found the Green surge - their vote shot up a whopping 1%.
• Reform got 23%, a rise of 9%, the biggest rise for any party in this ward. Nevertheless, their share is about 10% less than in the rest of the UK, suggesting Reform's reach into Scotland is more limited.

So what to make of the 6 by-elections?

• A good set of results for the Lib Dems with a gain and a successful defence and we stood in all the by-elections. However, there are areas of the country where our reach is limited. How do we turn that around?
• Someone must have turned the Green surge into organic mulch and dumped it on the compost heap.
• Conservatives continue to shrink though the Hendon result suggests they can't be written off....yet.
• Reform had a mixed night with 2 gains but also a loss to the Lib Dems. They need to look over their shoulder at the Lib Dems.
• Labour continue to lose significant vote share and show no signs of electoral recovery.