Oh no, not another by-election

Has Keir Starmer left a ticking time bomb in Burnham's inbox? His resignation as MP for Holborn and St Pancras means a tricky by-election. The Greens are already sniffing around the constituency and they are doing nothing to deflect suggestions that Zak Polanski will be their candidate. The talk is that Starmer has handed the constituency to Polanski. But is that really the case?

In the May local elections, Labour actually held on, though admittedly with a reduced majority, in Camden, the authority that covers Holborn and St Pancras. Elsewhere, Labour were in meltdown. It seems in Camden that people regard Labour a bit more positively than elsewhere. There is likely to be a rebound in the Labour vote, as already seen in opinion polls and in the Makkerfield by-election. And I'm not convinced that the Labour machine was unaware of the by-election. I suspect Starmer had been in talks with Labour campaign chiefs and an assessment of Labour prospects has been made. Perhaps he's going now because Labour feel they have a good chance of holding on, subject to a suitable candidate. Meanwhile, the gloss has started to come off Polanski. And an examination of Green policies could put off many moderate centrist voters.

So although the Greens may be getting excited about Polanski storming his way into Parliament, I would caution against all this excitement. We may be in for a big battle but if Polanski stands and loses, his political career is over.