Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Conference photos

 Lib Dem conference ended yesterday and so I headed north to get home. Here are some of the photos I took during my stay in Brighton.

Ed Davey's speech on Tuesday with the MPs seated behind him on the podium. It almost took as long as the speech just to get them all into the allocated places. That's what comes of having 72 MPs!

In the days when we had only 11 MPs, getting a full set of Lib Dem mugs was quite cheap. That's not the case now.
Remember this for next year - get to the National Farmers Union fringe meeting early or otherwise be stuck at the back.
Nothing political about this but the sunset over Brighton on Sunday was quite stunning.
Best fringe was the British Berry Growers. Samples gladly accepted.
I wasn't the only person from Gateshead to attend conference. Jamie Rickelton was there as well, doing the job of a conference steward.
Rising star and deputy leader Daisy Cooper gave a moving speech on Monday.
Me outside the Grand on Sunday evening, having just arrived at conference.

That's it folks!




Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Definitely a Lib Dem conference!

It's the last day of conference in Brighton and I am back in the main hall for the debate on rivers, sewage and water companies. Yesterday we had a debate on fair votes. This is very definitely a Lib and Dem conference!

As I write this, the motion on sewage has been passed and we are now on to reports from the Parliamentary parties, both Commons and Lords. For the first time in a long time, there is much interest in the reports. I guess that's a result of gaining 61 MPs at the general election! 

Monday, September 16, 2024

Reviewing the general election

I arrived last night at Brighton just in time for the local government /Ed Davey reception. A bigger room would have been useful as we were packed shoulder to shoulder. Afterwards I headed out for food and then returned to the hotel, feeling rather knackered. After all, 7 weeks solid on the Bridges by-election, running the farm, days of prep for the Bowes Agricultural Show and a journey to Brighton all took their toll.

So, feeling suitably refreshed this morning, I have made my way through the crowds of fleece and sandal wearing Lib Dems to get to the consultation on the general election. This is turning into a useful discussion. While it is recognised by speakers that the targeting strategy worked very well in July, many are saying that we need to look at how we move forward especially in Labour held seats. Music to my ears! 

This debate is just the start of the consultation process. It runs for the next few weeks. I will likely be making my own submission. 



Sunday, September 15, 2024

Off to conference

Lib Dem conference started in Brighton yesterday but I missed it as I was at the Bowes Agricultural Show in Co Durham. So today I am heading south on the train using my Senior Citizen's railcard to make the cost of the tickets that bit more affordable! I have my reading matter for the journey: 2 recent copies of the BBC History Magazine. I should be in Brighton later today.

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Greens crushed in Gateshead by-election

 I am now home from the Bridges by-election count in Gateshead. The result was:

  • Labour 320
  • Lib Dem 255
  • Green 253
  • Reform 166
  • Conservative 53
Turnout was a disappointing 17%.

The key changes from May are that the Lib Dems jumped from 4th to 2nd place. Labour held on but their majority is now just 65 in a ward they had previously regarded as a stronghold. Though Labour only just made it over the finishing line in first place, the main losers in Bridges were the Greens. They had high hopes of a victory as they had run Labour relatively close in the May local elections in the ward. They were certainly looking excited when they turned up for the count but their fall from 2nd to 3rd place was a crushing blow for them. Bridges was their only target ward in Gateshead. They looked like a deflated whoopy cushion as they limped away after the declaration.

Reform scored 16%. This is the first time they have contested Bridges. It is not clear from whom they have taken their votes though I suspect quite a few came from both Labour and Conservatives. Note the Conservative total, just 55. The rest of Reform's vote may have come from people who don't normally vote in local elections but this time have come out for Reform.

The crushing of the Greens means that Gateshead Council continues to be made up of Labour and Lib Dem councillors. No other party is strong enough to get elected in the borough.

And finally, I do hope that the Labour candidate Robert Waugh is okay. He was not at the count tonight to accept his election as councillor and I hope he has not gone down with any injuries or illness which kept him away from his moment of victory.

Bridges by-election forecasts

I'm just home after a day of slogging my way through Bridges ward for the by-election. I will be back to Gateshead Civic Centre later this evening to attend the count. Unlike many elections, I find this one rather difficult to predict as there are a number of knowns. Reform are standing for the first time. The Lib Dems have fought the ward hard for the first time (we usually just have a paperless candidate.) Given the quantity of literature we have produced for this campaign, "paperless" is definitely not the applicable description now. The ward was previously a Labour stronghold and their campaigning (indeed any party's campaigning) was somewhat limited. In the local elections in May, Bridges was the Greens' only target ward in Gateshead. They didn't win but they cut into Labour's majority. So from this mix we have to try to predict the result. 

Here are the different possible results.

1)Labour hold. Given the history of the ward, this should be the most likely outcome. However, Labour haven't exactly covered themselves in glory recently. The High Street is a mess, the convention centre planned for the Quays hasn't even got as far as being a building site and large areas of cleared land sit idle. Their choice of candidate hasn't helped. He lost his seat in Saltwell to the Lib Dems in 2023 and was defeated in Low Fell and Whickham South wards by the Liberal Democrats. Bridges is his 4th ward. But Labour are usually entrenched here.

So a Labour hold is possible but not with the surety of previous contests.

2)Green gain. Given the result in May, the Greens should be hopeful of a gain. Labour's majority over them is 290 (16%) so it is not marginal but neither is it safe for Labour. If the Greens don't win Bridges, they will have nowhere else to go in Gateshead, having abandoned their only other target of Crawcrook and Greenside. Lib Dem campaigners who have crossed paths with Greens on the campaign trail have told me the Greens are very confident, based almost entirely on the result in May. We shall see.

3)Lib Dem gain. The Lib Dems have not campaigned hard before in Bridges but an 8 week campaign using literature and campaign techniques usually employed in our top targets may have turned around Lib Dem prospects in the ward. A Lib Dem gain is still an outside chance but not one that can be discounted.

4)Labour coming 3rd. This would have been regarded as a fantasy story in previous contests but it can no longer be discounted. Labour may lose some of their support to Reform and their government have not made friends by axing the winter fuel payments for pensioners not on pension credit. The 2 child cap has also gone down badly.

Greens and Lib Dems have been slogging it out in the ward. Has one of them managed to push ahead as the challenger to Labour, or have both Lib Dems and Greens bitten chunks out of Labour,s vote. Labour have not helped themselves by running an uninspiring campaign which was slow to get off the ground.

So with so many unknowns and new variants, predicting this one is challenging. We will know the actual result by midnight.

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Farron photos

 

To add to the video from yesterday, here are a few of the photos of those helping in the Bridges byelection with Tim Farron MP.





Tim Farron MP in Gateshead

 

On Saturday 7th September 2024, MP Tim Farron met Lib Dem campaigners battling Labour to win the Bridges by-election in Gateshead. Tim gave an impromptu speech covering how Labour had won the general election by default but there was no great enthusiasm for Starmer. He also wished local campaigners a successful campaign before heading to meet local voters with by-election candidate Jonathan Aibi.

Reform's by-election leaflet

 


We keep a close eye on opposition literature in the Bridges by-election in Gateshead. Today I'm having a close look at the Reform Party's publication. There is frankly not much to write about. The leaflet has very little to say. Let's at least start with the imprint. It fails to show the name of the party and the name of the candidate though presumably the agent and candidate are the same person. Smacked wrists for that. The reference to "The Brexit Party" is a bit confusing as I thought that organisation had stopped functioning and was replaced by "The Reform Party". And then there is the call to "Save Britain" though from whom or what is not explained.

I was somewhat amused by the call for local issues to be sent to the candidate. One of the ways to make contact is via an email address which includes "blaydonandconsett". Though Blayon is in Gateshead, it is at the other end of the borough to Bridges. And Consett is over the border in Co Durham! So not very local.

The leaflet was found on the ground, hence the photo rather than a scan. Time to sweep it up along with all the other rubbish!



Monday, August 19, 2024

Where's the convention centre?


The Bridges by-election in Gateshead is turning into quite a battle between Lib Dems and Labour. Since the general election, we have held 4 action days and delivered 4 different leaflets across the ward. So far Labour have delivered 2 while the Greens are in the bronze medal position with one leaflet.

Labour's first leaflet talked about lots of plans being in the "pipeline" which I guess is Labour's way of explaining why little appears to have happened in the ward. Labour talk about plans for the High Street which is still decaying away, new homes at Chandless and Clasper Village though the sites were cleared years ago and nothing has been built on them since, and "new life" for the old Town Hall which is still closed.

But what was not mentioned was the convention centre that was meant to be coming to Gateshead, in the heart of Bridges ward. Given the noise made by Labour about the convention plans in the past, and the significant sums poured into them, Labour's silence on what should be one of the country's biggest urban redevelopments seems to be rather odd. I wonder why the convention centre failed to make it into Labour's pipeline.

(Video about - the site of the convention centre though not a brick has been laid.)

5 in the running for the Bridges by-election

 

The Bridges by-election in Gateshead will be held on 12th September. There are 5 candidates in the running. The Lib Dem candidate is Jonathan Aibi (pictured above). He is 23 years old and my guess is that he is the youngest of the candidates. Labour are defending the seat and their candidate is Robert Waugh. He has been a Labour candidate in 4 wards. Only 18 more to go to get the full set!

Other candidates include Conservatives, Greens and Reform.

Monday, August 12, 2024

Picnic in the Park - video

 

As usual, I had my video camera with me when I was at the Pride Picnic in the Park at Saltwell Park yesterday. So here is my latest blockbuster video of the event!

Picnic in the Park

 

There was a good turnout of Gateshead Lib Dems for the borough's first Pride Picnic in the Park, held in Saltwell Park yesterday. We were joined at one point by Cllr Freda Geddess, Deputy Mayor, accompanied by her consort Cllr Alex Geddess.

An enjoyable event and hopefully it will become a regular event in future years.







Bridges action day no. 3

 

Gateshead Lib Dems held our 3rd action day in Bridges ward of Gateshead on Saturday morning. A bunch of Lib Dems descended on my car and stripped me almost bare of Focuses newsletters. Thank you to everyone who helped. I had to head quickly to the office to get another batch of leaflets. It's early days in this by-election but from conversations reported back to me by our leafletting team, we are being received positively by residents.

Washingwell Woods history talk

 

The next meeting of Sunniside History Society will be held on Wednesday 4th September 2024 at 7pm at Sunniside Club. I will be the speaker! Washingwell Woods is packed with historical sites going back to the Roman period. These will be discussed as part of the park.

All welcome.

Wednesday, August 07, 2024

Pride event postponed in light of riots

This Saturday, 10th August, should have been a day of celebration of diversity in Gateshead. Organisers of the event - Out North East - however have decided to postpone the event, planned for Gateshead town centre, because of concerns about the recent riots carried out by far right extremists. While it is worrying that a tiny minority of extremists threatening violence can impact on the wider community, public safety has to be the primary concern. Hopefully a new date will be announced soon.

The good news is that the Pride Picnic in Saltwell Park will be going ahead on Sunday (12pm-4pm). I'm already working on making flans and so on, using produce from our farm.

Tuesday, August 06, 2024

Bridges by-election

 

There is to be a by-election in Bridges ward of Gateshead Council following the sad death of Labour Councillor, and chair of planning, Bob Goldsworthy. Bob was one of those people everyone could get on with. He had always treated me with respect and politeness, particularly when I was representing constituents at planning committee meetings.

The by-election will be held on Thursday 12th September. It means the constant election campaigning stretches into the late summer, having started in January as activities ramped up for the local elections (only then to run straight into the general election). Our most recent Focus in the ward is pictured above, awaiting delivery.

Monday, August 05, 2024

Say no to racism

Given the current riots by the far-right, Gateshead Liberal Democrats are taking a stand against racism. Visit their website on this link.

Those taking part in the riots are not patriotic or pro-British. They are a stain on the country, using a terrible tragedy as an excuse to destroy property, threaten people, steal, loot, vandalise and attack the police. True Brits are those volunteers who have banded together to clear up the mess left by the thugs and rioters.

Looking back on July: exceeding expectations

 

I filmed this the day after the general election last month. I have to confess I was surprised the Lib Dems had won 72 seats. My expectation was around 40-50. Well, better to exceed expectations rather than fall short!

Sunday, August 04, 2024

Look back at July: not the Official Opposition

 

I recorded this video on the evening before polling day last month. In it I said that the suggestions from opinion polls that the Lib Dems could become the official opposition were highly unlikely to happen. Our realistic aim should be to regain our position as the 3rd party in the Commons, taking back the position lost to the SNP in 2015. My expectation was for a total Lib Dem MP count of 40-50.

Thursday, July 25, 2024

The future of Sunniside Church

 

In January I was told by members of the congregation that Sunniside Methodist Church would be closing in March. The numbers in the congregation had fallen to 11, most of whom are elderly. The chapel and hall were too much for them to cope with and the running costs are huge. There had been valiant attempts to keep the hall and chapel in operation but sadly they were defeated. The closure leaves Sunniside with a large building which needs a future.

As ward councillors, Marilynn Ord, Jonathan Mohammed and myself are keep to explore options for the future of the chapel. It sits in a very prominent location in the village and we are concerned that if no future use is found for the hall that it could become derelict.

The Methodist Church South Tyne and Wear circuit, ultimately responsible for the building, asked me to chair a meeting of residents and interested parties at the church to see if there was any interest in taking on the building. The meeting went ahead last week and was attended by 38 residents, plus members of the circuit.

It was a useful meeting and there is a possibility of a community group being set up to take on the building though the repairs to the roof that are needed means the group would need to raise a sum over £50K and possibly approaching £100k. I suggested that the group should be given a chance to get up and running but that there would have to be a specific deadline to take on the building. This is out of fairness to the Methodist organsation as they are currently having to pay huge insurance and energy bills on the building.

For the 3 of us as ward councillors, our priorities are to retain the chapel building but it has to have a use. The building is one of the oldest in Sunniside and therefore it is part of our local heritage and history. So hopefully we can have some positive news about Sunniside Church in the near future.

Sunday, July 21, 2024

Northern Pride

 

Yesterday Newcastle hosted Northern Pride and the parade to celebrate diversity started off at Newcastle Civic Centre and ended there as well. I was pleased to see a good turnout from Gateshead Lib Dems. Alas, once the parade through the streets of the city was over, I had to return home - lots to do on the farm.






Friday, July 19, 2024

Poo delay as everything crashes

As I am now officially old, I get offered lots of tests by the NHS. When I arrived at the GP surgery this morning clutching my poo sample in a plastic container, I was told by the receptionist that no samples could be received because of the computer outage. No tests can be carried out. So my sample was deposited into the clinical waste bin and I was given a new kit. Bring a fresh sample next week I was told.

It seems as though we have become dangerously dependent on a small number of providers. When it goes wrong, it goes spectacularly wrong and causes chaos. If there is ever another world war, this is what it will look like. IT collapses and everything grinds to a halt. 

Saturday, July 13, 2024

Our next Focus

 

The election may be over but we have picked up so many issues recently in Whickham South and Sunniside that we decided to produce an extra edition of Focus. I printed it on Thursday and we started delivery straight away. The lead story (which dictates the timing of this Focus) is the public meeting I am chairing on Thursday about the future of Sunniside Methodist Church. We therefore have until Wednesday to get all 1900 copies delivered.

Tuesday, July 09, 2024

Back to the 40s

 

The next meeting of Sunniside History Society will be on Wednesday 7th August at 7pm in Sunniside Club. We will be looking at Britain in the 1940s. So bring your ration book and your national identity card and enjoy an evening exploring the history of the era of Atlee and Churchill, shortages and conscription. All welcome.

Monday, July 08, 2024

Looks fantastic

 

Oli and Joe's Italian Restaurant took over the former Rising Sun pub in Sunniside, a stone's throw from my house, some years ago. They have recently gone through a refurbishment and the building is looking fantastic. Well done to all concerned. I have a particular fondness for Oli and Joe's in Sunniside. It was where I proposed to David two years ago!

Sunday, July 07, 2024

The blame game

One of the most frequently made claims by Labour in Gateshead Council chamber is that anything that has gone wrong is the fault of the Liberal Democrats. Labour have been in control of Gateshead for 50 years. Indeed, no other party has ever run the authority. Labour base their claim on the Lib Dems being in the coalition government from 2010-15. The coalition ended 9 years ago but "Blame the Lib Dems" is the mantra by which Labour operates.

Given the years of local government austerity that Labour are likely to impose on Gateshead, I can conjure up images of Labour Councillors continuing to claim that the Lib Dems are to blame. The allegation will be along the lines of "Labour have looked at the government accounts and there's no money left. Let's blame the Lib Dems who left office 9 years ago!"

I'm not a betting person but I could be tempted to put a bet on Labour in Gateshead blaming the Lib Dems for Labour austerity at a council meeting in the near future.

Name the lane

 

A new development in Streetgate, one of the villages in my ward in Gateshead, needed to be named and so last year officers from Highways at the Civic Centre got in touch with myself, Cllr Jonathan Mohammed and Cllr Marilynn Ord to ask for suggestions. We were not impressed by the developer's suggestion "Hornbeam Avenue". We felt this meant nothing to residents.

Instead we proposed a number of alternatives based on the history of Streetgate. Opposite the development is Sorella Sorella restaurant. The building started life in the Victorian period as the "Rose, Shamrock and Thistle" and continued to be called by the same name until the 1990s when it was renamed the "Rose". One of the names for the new development we suggested was "Shamrock Avenue". This was the name that was finaly agreed (though Avenue was dropped in favour of "Lane". The street sign is now in place.

Saturday, July 06, 2024

Waiting for Jeremy Hunt

The last constituency result sailed into view this evening when Lib Dem Angus MacDonald took Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire from the SNP. The general election delivered a Lib Dem parliamentary party of 72. My expectation of 40-50 seats for the Lib Dems was way off the mark. My excuse is that we got such a beating in the 2015, 2017 and 2019 elections that we dared not to believe positive news from opinion polls.

My hopes for the Lib Dems in this election were:

  • a significant increase in the number of Lib Dem MPs;
  • recovering the position of the 3rd party in the House of Commons (I refused to entertain the suggestions that the Lib Dems could become the official opposition on the simple grounds that it was a fantasy in this election though the future could be different);
  • we achieve a creditable result in Gateshead Central and Whickham (compared to most other contests in the North East, it was creditable).
I went to the count for Gateshead Central and Whickham at the Gateshead International Stadium. It was quite a relaxed affair and unusually it finished by 1am, instead of the usual 3-4am. It meant I could be home in time to watch most of the results coming in. I made the mistake of deciding to stay up for the declaration of Jeremy Hunt's result. It wasn't until 5am and it was daylight outside when it arrived and it was one of the few disappointments of the night - he survived (just). Off to bed at that point for a 2 hour kip and then I was up again to feed the livestock.

Sunday, June 30, 2024

Election campaign: voting for Ron

 

Seven parties are standing in Gateshead Central and Whickham constituency. As you can see Ron Beadle, Lib Dem group leader in Gateshead and best man to me and David at our wedding last year, is top of the list. He's got my vote which was posted yesterday.

A bit on the other candidates: Rachel Cabral, of the Greens, was their candidate in Bridges in the local elections last month. She managed to avoid any mention of her as a Green in her main leaflet in May, describing herself as "independent".

Labour's Mark Ferguson now has a full understanding of the art of parachuting. It was by this mode of transport that he was able to get the nomination from Labour's National Executive, of which he just happens to be a member. He lives in Chipping Barnet, only 300 miles away. I hope he brought a map with him.

Normal Hall, TUSC, performed creditably at the public meeting last week hosted by the National Association of Headteachers. He is, of course, he only socialist on the ballot paper.

Damian Heslop of Reform was the only Reform candidate in May's local elections in Gateshead. He wasn't invited to the Headteachers' meeting as no one was able to find any contact details.

Nicholas Oliver of the Conservatives deserves credit for flying the Conservative flag in what is an electoral desert for his party. He performed relatively well at the Headteachers' meeting. It's normal for Conservative candidates to be tried and tested in a no hope seat before being offered a safe seat elsewhere. Whether or not any safe seats are left in Conservative hands after 4th July is an interesting talking point.

And finally, Graham Steele of "Save Us Now". This is a political party which claims lampposts are a secret weapon installed by Gateshead Council to kill off large numbers of people in Gateshead. I kid you not! This so-called party is also home to a variety of other conspiracy theories. If you want to see their ludicrous claims, go to their website.

Election campaign: taking the kid to school

 

Our newest goat, 2 month old Dandelion, joined the campaign trail on Friday when I took her to meet parents outside Clover Hill School in Whickham. Dandelion is already familiar to many residents. She was named by members of local Facebook sites and was seen by many at the recent Chase Park fair. She was quite a hit with both parents and children at Clover Hill. I'm wondering how we can fit her into an Ed Davey stunt!

Planted up

 

This is the junction of Kingsway and Sunniside Road, Sunniside. As you can see, the hard work of the Planting Up Sunniside volunteers is beginning to show. They have tidied up the site and installed planters. My job was to take all the weeds (a wheelbarrow full) to my compost heap on my allotment, a couple of minutes away.

Election campaign: keep your feet on the ground

I have been involved in 11 general elections since I first became involved with politics 43 years ago. But I have not before witnessed what is happening now. 1983, 1987, 1997, 2001 and 2019 were elections that were predictable landslides. The current election has the same smell to it. But the big difference is the split in the right. This is something I've not experienced before and it is driving the election to a point where extreme outcomes are possible.

Firstly, the likelihood is a record Labour majority and total number of seats but with a share of the vote that years ago would have lost a party a general election. Secondly, the collapse of the Conservative party and the shredding of the number of seats they hold could potentially strip them of their position of one of the two main parties in the Commons. While I think it is unlikely to happen, the fact we are talking about the Conservatives dropping to 3rd place in the Commons is remarkable. Thirdly, the projected outcome for the Lib Dems could see the party for the first time in a century get a share of seats in the Commons that is close to the share of the vote. Fourthly, Reform is to take the Lib Dem crown of the party most under-represented in Parliament because of the first-past-the-post voting system.

The election still has four days to run but time is running out for something to happen that can save the Conservatives. It is unlikely that the cavalry will come to their rescue. The danger for Lib Dems now is that members will turn up to counts of Thursday evening full of hope that seats previously thought beyond our reach will be won. We need to be cautious. To win a constituency, we do not need a high opinion poll rating (though it helps), Instead we need the campaign infrastructure on the ground to deliver election victory. At the start of 2024, I think it is fair to say that our expectations for the general election were less than they are now. With the polls showing we could be winning 70 seats, we may not necessarily have the fully honed grassroots infrastructure needed to deliver victory. So while I enjoy the idea that we could move ahead of the Conservatives and become the official opposition, my prediction is more modest. 40 seats seems to me to be realistic. It gives us a significantly enlarged parliamentary party and gets us back into third place in the Commons.

So, fellow Liberal Democrats, keep your feet on the ground rather than have your head in the clouds. (Though if you are in the clouds, say hello to Ed Davey as he zooms past doing a skydive as part of another stunt!)

Election campaign: backing from the dead

I was only half concentrating this morning when Trevor Phillips was interviewing Nigel Farage on Sky News. I thought I had misheard Farage when he said that Henry Kissinger backed his position on Putin. I was a bit surprised as I was sure Kissinger had died. Sure enough, when I checked, Kissinger had died last year. Is this a case of conscripting the dead to support Farage's admiration for Putin?

The Trumpesque tone of Farage continued when he tried to make out that the filming of a racist party activist was all a conspiracy by the media. When challenged for evidence by Trevor Phillips, Farage explained it was all down to the accent of the activist in question! I kid you not!

And challenged to explain why racists, homophobes and misogynists were attracted to the Reform party, he explained that his party's appeal to to such people was down to the disappearance of the BNP. People of the far right had no other home so were heading to Reform. In effect his party was the natural choice for those with far right views.

That's all the more reason for fearing the collapse of the Conservatives and their replacement by Reform as the main right wing party in Britain.

Thursday, June 13, 2024

Election campaign: the impact of Reform UK

The 2024 general election campaign feels, smells and sounds like the election of 1997. Those of us politically active 27 years ago will recall how the campaign had a Labour landside built in to election expectations. The Conservatives were fighting a rearguard action based largely on their MPs trying to save their own skins and hoping the tsunami of anti-Conservative sentiment could be held back in their own constituency.

Other similarities included tactical voting which benefitted Labour, Lib Dems and the SNP.

But there are some significant differences. Firstly, back in 1997, Labour's poll ratings were stratospheric though they were never able to reproduce them fully at the general election. The SNP were beneficiaries of tactical voting but they weren't the dominant force in Scotland they have become. Blair was highly regarded and was a charismatic leader, unlike Starmer who is seen as a safe pair of hands but not a towering leader.

It is the state of the Conservatives that is the biggest difference however. They typically had poll ratings in the high twenties or low thirties. Currently the Conservatives can only dream of such poll ratings. No matter what the share of the Labour vote is in the opinion polls, the Conservatives now remain stubbornly 20% behind. The Conservatives can thank Reform UK for that.

I've been politically active for 43 years but this is the first time I have experienced fractures in the right win vote in the UK. The biggest losers are the Conservatives. A split vote will let in Labour and Lib Dems, depending on which party is the main challenger in the constituencies the Conservatives are defending.

The other loser will be Reform UK whose chances of winning seats is remote. They will be lucky to have 2 or 3. But their longer term plan is materialising: replace the Conservatives as the main right wing party. While the challenges faced by the Conservatives and Reform UK may bring some pleasure to the rest of us, the signs for the future are not good. While the Conservatives may be riddled with right wing rubbish, they remain closer to the centre ground than Reform UK. Imagine the impact on the UK if the Tories disappeared, Reform UK took over as the main party of the right, and won a general election. That would be horrifying.

So while the Conservatives show every sign of sinking out of sight in this election, the future of the UK with Reform as a main political party is very worrying.

Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Ron's adoption speech

 

Ron Beadle was adopted as Lib Dem candidate for Gateshead Central and Whickham recently. This is his adoption speech.

Election campaign: Chipping away at Labour

 

Chipping Barnett is a plush North London suburb. I can't think of any links between Chipping Barnett and Gateshead. Until now. Chipping Barnett is home to Labour's candidate for Gateshead Central and Whickham. Local Lib Dems have helpfully produced this map to show Labour's candidate living 300km away from the constituency into which he was parachuted by his chums on Labour's NEC.

The Conservatives have surprisingly not sent in a candidate from London. Instead he comes from Northumberland, slightly closer than Chipping Barnett!

Friday, June 07, 2024

Election campaign: not Holding on!

Richard Holden experienced one of the unexpected moments of the 2019 general election. He won the constituency of North West Durham, previously a Labour stronghold. Holden's career seemed to be on an upward trajectory and he was appointed Chair of the Conservative Party. But to keep his star in the ascendency, he needed to continue to be an MP. That was looking like a problem earlier this year for two reasons. Firstly, his constituency was torn apart by the boundary changes. And secondly, the chances of a Conservative MP surviving in the Red Wall were as wafer thin as you can get. And then the chicken run came to his rescue. Holden was imposed on the Conservatives in Basildon and Billericay as candidate for the constituency. The constituency counts as "safe" for the Conservatives though that may be put to the test in the general election. Apparently local Conservatives are rather unhappy. It also says a great deal about what the Conservatives think of their chances in the Red Wall. Whether or not Holden will be missed by his former constituents is for history to determine.

Talking about D-Day

On Wednesday evening, I was the speaker at the Sunniside History Society monthly meeting. The subject of my talk was "Preparations for D-Day". We looked at how the Allies broke Enigma, how troops were transferred across the Atlantic on the Queen Elizabeth and Queen Mary ocean liners, how the Nazis were fooled into thinking the invasion would be in the Pays de Calais and how an artificial harbour was shipped over to Normandy so that troops could be supplied.

On the latter point, I visited the Normandy beaches on the 68th anniversary of D-Day and filmed this video showing the beaches from 2km off shore and the remains of the artificial harbour. https://youtu.be/SmonD8fJi1M


Election campaign; the clock is ticking to find Tory candidates

Nominations for the general election close this afternoon. Here in Gateshead, we have one constituency fully within the area of the council and three that are partially within the borough. In three of these, the Conservatives are still to announce their candidates. I am assuming that they will announce them shortly. Surely, as the governing party, they are going to join the battle in these constituencies? Or has the rot gone too far within the Conservative party?

It was often the case in the past that a youngish Conservative from London would be given a map of the North East and told to head north for the 4 weeks of the campaign with their reward being a more winnable seat in the future. That no longer works as the collapse in Conservative support has made lots of their safe seats somewhat unsafe. So promises and payback are rather worthless now.

Meanwhile, Labour have obviously put in an order for new parachutes. Labour's NEC met recently to carve up the available winnable seats among themselves. The result is Starmer chum Mark Ferguson being parachuted into Gateshead Central and Whickham. The bulk of his campaigning activity in the constituency recently seems to amount to being here on local election polling day rushing around various wards taking photos of himself.

It was noteworthy that no local Labour candidate was in the running, or perhaps they were but their own party thought they weren't good enough for them!

Friday, May 31, 2024

Thank you Focus

 

As is usual, as soon as the local elections were over, we began work on our "Thank You Focuses". The first off the production line was for Whickham South and Sunniside. It contained an article about a general election having to be held by January 2025. The file was sent to the printer and 4000 Focuses landed on my doorstep some days later. In the afternoon, the general election was announced! So, with apologies for one slightly out of date article, the ward has now been delivered. The last patch was done yesterday.

Election campaign - the work continues...

 

The general election may be underway but our usual work in the community still goes ahead. So on Sunday I was at Church Green in Whickham helping out with Planting Up Whickham where they were stripping the flowerbeds ready for replanting. My job, as usual, was to bring my pickup and remove all the stripped out plants to take to my farm to be made into compost. The next planting session is 10am on Sunday 9th June.

Election campaign: Gateshead's four Lib Dem candidates

The constituency boundary changes in Gateshead have resulted in something of a complicated mess. Previously we had two constituencies fully in Gateshead (Blaydon constituency and Gateshead constituency). Now we have one fully in Gateshead (Gateshead Central and Whickham) and bits of three other constituencies (Jarrow and Gateshead East, Blaydon and Consett and Washington and Gateshead South). The most interesting from the Lib Dem point of view is Gateshead Central and Whickham as the constituency contains the three Whickham wards plus Low Fell, all strong Lib Dem areas as well as marginal Saltwell where we hold one of the three seats.

We have had our candidates in place since earlier this year, unlike the other parties (Labour only announced their Gateshead Central and Whickham candidate last night and the Conservatives are yet to arm twist an aspiring candidate to put their hat in the ring.)

So, here are our four candidates:




Promoted by Andy Coleman on behalf of Gateshead Liberal Democrats, c/o 5 Wealcroft Court, Gateshead, NE10 8NR.


Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Election campaign day 4: when is a spoof not a spoof?

On Saturday evening I saw a suggestion that the Conservatives were about to launch a policy of national service for 18 year olds. Someone had posted it on Facebook and my quick read of it led me to think it was a spoof. I knew the Conservatives were desperate but I didn't think they were that desperate. It was only after it appeared as a news story on Sky News that I realised it was not a spoof and was in fact a real story. 

By now, the jokes about reviving the Home Guard and reintroducing ration books have done the rounds so I won't mention them here. Nevertheless, there is an element of desperation in the Conservatives' announcement. While I strongly support the principle of volunteering for non-military organisations, I draw the line at the army. The UK needs a quality professional army, not one padded out with national service recruits. It is why we have one of the most effective armies in the world.

Not content with making a mess of the army, the Conservatives seem to have revised the meaning of "volunteering". Now it is to mean compulsion as 18 year olds will be required to take part in volunteering schemes.

So, be careful how you respond to social media posts about the Conservatives. If they appear ludicrous and absurd, it is probably true.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

Election campaign day 3: could Corbyn hold on?

On Friday it was announced that Jeremy Corbyn would stand as an independent in Islington North, the constituency he has represented since 1983. Having been evicted from the Parliamentary Labour Party, Starmer was in no mood to let his predecessor back in. Corbyn was the centre of a personality cult up until he led Labour to its worst election performance since 1935. 

MPs who stand against their former party tend to go down to defeat at the subsequent general election. Is Corbyn likely to suffer the same fate? I have no time for Corbyn's politics and he was a disaster that boosted the Tories and ensured they had a significant majority in 2019. But he has a significant following in his constituency. I believe he got the largest vote of any candidate in 2019 and over half the electorate in Islington North voted for him. Despite his politics, he has been a hard working constituency MP and that must put him in a good position to hold on. So Islington North may be one of the ones to watch.