Just back from the printers

 

I took delivery of 2000 Sunniside Focuses yesterday. My next job is to bundle them into their patches. Tomorrow we start delivering them! They all have to be out before 26th November. That's when the Christmas tree lights switch on is happening, and the front page of the Focus is all about it.

By-election analysis - nearly every seat changed hands

They don't quite have the sparkle of the results of the past couple of weeks but nonetheless, yesterday's by-elections were still favourable for the Lib Dems.

Let's start with Okehampton, West Devon:

• The Greens were defending but lost. They weren't helped by their own failure to field a candidate. Why didn't someone from their surging claims of new members come forward to defend the seat? Anyway the Greens were a seat down even before a vote was cast.
• The winners were the Lib Dems, taking 57% of the vote. Vote shares above 50% are now quite rare for any party, given the fractured state of party politics. The Lib Dems did not stand last time this seat was fought so we came from nowhere to victory in one go.
• The Conservatives got a quarter of the vote, a drop of 6%. While this is not good for them, it is not as bad as some of the results they've had recently.
• As well as having a Green no-show, Labour and Reform were absent as well.

Seales, South Derbyshire

• Stoney ground for the Lib Dems, we didn't field a candidate in the last election. Alas, we came last.
• No Green candidate.
• An Independent was the victor taking a healthy 56% of the vote.
• Yet another dire result for Labour whose vote collapsed in a seat they were defending. They got 6%, less than a quarter of their previous share.
• Reform stood for the first time and jumped into 2nd place.
• Another miserable result for the Conservatives. Their share dropped from just over 20% to less than 10%.

Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages ward, Fife Council

• An SNP gain, is this part of an SNP recovery? They had a healthy share of the vote at 43%
• Yet another dire result for Labour who lost the seat and came third.
• Reform were second. Is this s sign that they do have some reach in Scotland?
• Lib Dems in 4th place but this is stoney ground for us.
• Yet again, no Green.

Fleckney, Harborough

• A bit disappointing, the seat went to Reform in a ward which has a Lib Dem councillor and had a Conservatives councillor (whose resignation sparked the by-election). Nevertheless, this was a Conservative loss.
• Reform took 35%, Lib Dems on 29% so the silver lining is that it is marginal.
• The defending Conservatives came third.
• The Greens' share dropped from 12% to 6%.

Castle ward, Newark and Sherwood

• A Reform gain from the Independents, this was another ward where the winning candidate (regardless of party) where the winner has less than 30%
• This was a so-near-and-yet-so-far result for the Conservatives. They trailed Reform by only 11 votes.

Westway, Tandridge

• A Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives based mainly on the Lib Dem vote share changing very little but the Conservative vote dropping significantly. We all need to get used to lower winning shares of the vote, given the increased number of parties now standing.
• The Conservatives tumbled into 3rd place, losing approximately half their share.
• Reform came 2nd, about 10% behind the Lib Dems.
• No Green candidate.
• Labour lost two-thirds of their vote share.

Lingfield and Crowhurst, Tandridge

• The only seat not to change hands, this was a hold for a residents' group.
• Reform were 2nd but not close enough to the winners to call it a marginal.
• The Conservatives were on 10%, down just 1%. For Conservatives, that must have been the highlight of the day.
• No Green candidate. (again).

The overall picture

• Lib Dems: we stood in all the byelections and got 2 gains and a near gain. A good outcome. 
• Reform: the bandwagon is still rolling with 2 gains.
• Conservatives: a poor performance, they are continuing to lose seats and vote share but they did manage to stand in all the byelections.
• Labour: a dire performance with their vote collapsing in every contest.
• Greens: increased opinion poll ratings and claims about a surge in members is not playing out on the ground. They stood in only 2 byelections and came nowhere. They even failed to defend a seat. 

Taking the biscuit

 

Last night I chaired the meeting of Sunniside History Society at Sunniside Social Club. The speaker was Dr Paul Stott who used to work as a naval architect in the shipbuilding industry in the North East before moving into the world of academia where he lectured on the industry of which he had lots of practical experience.

Paul's presentation looked at the decline of UK shipbuilding from its peak in the late Victorian period to the current state. Restrictive practices, inadequate management, failure to invest long term, challenging working conditions, failure to retrain and the resistance to switching from riveting to welding all had their part to play.

Meanwhile, at the interval, I drew the raffle and the first ticket out belong to, ahem, a certain Jonathan Wallace. I won a packet of chocolate chip cookies!

Poppies on display

 

Large Remembrance poppies have started to appear in Sunniside. Thank you to the volunteers from Planting Up Sunniside who have been hard at work placing the poppies around the village.

Planting Up Sunniside meeting

Planting Up Sunniside held their monthly meeting on Tuesday and I was invited to come along and discuss a number of issues with them. Most of them was about the Christmas tree switch on event on Wednesday 26th November. Most of the details are now sorted. There will be live music and the mayor will do the switch on at 5.30pm. I've also arranged for three donkeys to be there (my links to farming and stables are always useful!)

Also discussed were the bulb planting on Hole Lane in Sunniside, the scarecrow festival, Streetgate Christmas tree, Remembrance poppies and a number of other issues. So, a very productive meeting.

Tynesider montage

 

A few photos from last weeks Gateshead Lib Dem social at the Tynesider on Gateshead High Street.

Revised bar chart looks even better

 

Last week I posted a bar chart of council by-elections in October. It seems I jumped the gun. A revised bar chart has since been circulated which is an improvement on what was already a good result.

Every party expects to make some losses in council by-elections but since the May local elections the Lib Dems have defended 28 seats and lost only 2. For all my years in politics, I've never known the Lib Dems to have such a high retention level.

Although the number of Reform by-election defences is only 8, they held only 4, a retention rate of just 50%. Admittedly this is much better than the Conservatives and Labour but it does take the sheen off Reforms performance.

Back to the bar chart above: in October the Lib Dems clocked up the most wins at 16. Reform managed a respectable 13 but almost certainly lost more to resignations, suspensions, expulsions and defections. The Conservatives at three and Labour on two mean they are losing the majority of their by-election defences. Meanwhile, the long awaited Green surge is still awaited.

The face of Halloween

 

A bit of a fun night last Friday as we sat at home waiting for the next knock on the door. I think we overdid the sweets however. Five big boxes of chocolates ended up being too much. It looks like what's left over will go to the Sunniside History Society meeting on Wednesday to be raffle prizes! I suspect I won't be taking the mask with me.

Shipbuilding under review at History Society meeting

 

Sunniside History Society will be meeting at 7pm on Wednesday 5th November at Sunniside Social Club. The speaker is Dr Paul Stott who will be talking about the shipbuilding industry in the North East. I will be chairing the meeting.

Another bar chart to finish the month

 

An interesting bar chart from Lib Dem HQ. I think it speaks for itself.

Back to the Tynesider

 

The final Thursday evening each month has grown into a bit of a social event for Gateshead Lib Dems. The last one was held yesterday at the Tynesider on Gateshead High Street. The video above is a slide show of the event.

By-elections: the analysis

Yesterday saw another good crop of Lib Dem council by-election results. Let's start with the main headline: Lib Dem gain from Reform in Worcestershire. This was one of the councils which, in May, switched to the Reform insurgents. 

Yesterday, a by-election was held in Bromsgrove South. We won it! Key points are:

• Reform loss means Lib Dem gain;
• The Greens failed to stand a candidate (where is this so-called Green surge?);
• Before Reform, this was a strong Conservative ward. Yesterday the Conservatives managed a miserable 11%;
• The Lib Dems took over half the votes cast. Winning 50% of the vote in an individual ward has become something of a glass ceiling for all parties. Multi-party politics means more choice but it becomes far more challenging to reach the point where half of voters back a particular party.

The next ward to consider is St John's in Tunbridge Wells.

• Lib Dem hold but again, we took over half the votes cast.
• The ward is in a Lib Dem parliamentary constituency (Tunbridge Wells) which suggests Lib Dem supporters are voting Lib Dem at both local and national level. Previously, in most parts of the country, getting those who vote Lib Dem locally to do so nationally has been something of a challenge.
• Reform got only 15%, well down on their opinion poll ratings and usual by-election vote share. It suggests that in areas where the Lib Dems are well organised, Reform find it difficult to make progress.
• There was no Labour candidate. Is this a straw in the wind that Labour's organisaton is crumbling?
• Will Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells be happy with this result?

Garlinge in Thanet is an area where Reform are doing well already.

• Reform won, taking the seat from a local party. They got a share of the vote greater than their usual 25-35% range. That should make them smile.
• At 32%, this share of the vote is relatively high for the Conservatives and they even managed to vote share increase of 12%. This is however something of a one-off. Their vote share elsewhere is poor.
• Labour dropped from 20% to 8%. This reflects what is happening elsewhere - Labour are losing over half their vote share.
• This is stoney ground for the Greens but the Green surge remains hidden here. Their vote share fell by a small margin.
• This is also stoney ground for the Lib Dems. Nevertheless, we had a candidate in the ward for the first time in 20 years.

Roebuck in Stevenage waved goodbye to Labour.

• A gain by Reform from Labour, adding to to the forever growing pile of lost Labour seats.
• This was an unusal result in that Lab, Cons, Greens and Lib Dems all lost vote share to Reform who were standing for the first time.
• The Greens came last but managed to keep their Green surge well hidden.

Hendon in Barnet - get your bugles ready to announce something rare.

• A Conservative hold and their drop in vote share was only 2.5%. At 46% of the vote, the Tories can feel pleased with this result. A pity for them they have little else to celebrate.
• Reform were runners up but they were some distance from the winning post.
• Another Green surge disguised as a drop in share of the vote.

And finally, from across the border, a by-election in Stirling East

• It was not good news for the Conservatives. They lost the seat and ended up in 4th place on 7% of the vote.
• The SNP were the winners.
• We found the Green surge - their vote shot up a whopping 1%.
• Reform got 23%, a rise of 9%, the biggest rise for any party in this ward. Nevertheless, their share is about 10% less than in the rest of the UK, suggesting Reform's reach into Scotland is more limited.

So what to make of the 6 by-elections?

• A good set of results for the Lib Dems with a gain and a successful defence and we stood in all the by-elections. However, there are areas of the country where our reach is limited. How do we turn that around?
• Someone must have turned the Green surge into organic mulch and dumped it on the compost heap.
• Conservatives continue to shrink though the Hendon result suggests they can't be written off....yet.
• Reform had a mixed night with 2 gains but also a loss to the Lib Dems. They need to look over their shoulder at the Lib Dems.
• Labour continue to lose significant vote share and show no signs of electoral recovery.

Scarecrow festival in Streetgate

 

It started last year - people in Streetgate, one of the villages I represent as a councillor, made scarecrows and displayed them in their gardens. The newly established soon-to-be-a tradition this year has seen lots of Halloween decorations put up as well. Lots of residents are joining in the fun. I've included quite a few photos of the displays in the video above.

Planning the switch on

Last night, my two ward colleagues - Jonathan Mohammed and Marilynn Ord - and I met up with Planting Up Sunniside in Sunniside Club to sort out some of the details of the Christmas tree switch on event on 26th November. The switch-on will be on 26th November on the grassed area opposite Sun Hill. at about 5pm. More details to follow.

Let them eat lunch

 

We have a simple rule in Gateshead Lib Dems for action days: always go for lunch together in a local hostelry or in a member's house. On Saturday, at the end of our action day in Dunston Hill and Whickham East, we gathered at the Waggon Team pub near Lobley Hill. Very nice!

Dunston Hill and Whickham East action day

 

On Saturday, while some Lib Dem members in Gateshead were running the Whickham surgery, others were in Dunston Hill and Whickham East where we were delivering the latest Focus newsletter. Most patches were completed with the remainder done on Sunday. Next ward in the action day pipeline is Whickham North and Swalwell.

Saturday's surgery

 

The Whickham councillors held their monthly advice surgery at Whickham Library on Saturday. Of the 9 of us, five were at the surgery and four of us were in Dunston delivering Focus newsletters. Issues raised included the national minimum wage (not quite our responsibility as councillors) and Chase Park.

By-election boost for the Lib Dems

 

This is quite interesting. In all the by-elections held since May's local elections, Reform and the Lib Dems are significantly ahead of the other parties in terms of seats won. Add the Conservative, Labour and Greens together and their figures still fall short of the Lib Dem total. Happy days!

Focus production line

It feels as though I have been on a Focus newsletter production line this month. So far I have written and put together five editions. These boxes arrived at the home of one of our councillors last week. An action day is fast approaching to deliver this Focus. I have one left to write for the current round and it's actually for my ward!

First job on my return

 

I was away from home for a couple of days last week. Sadly, Ann, my mother-in-law, passed away in September. Her funeral was in Kent.

On my return home, my first job was to remove the sack of vegetation that have been left at Church Green in Whickham. Plant Up Whickham had stripped out all the flower beds while I was away. My job was to remove the sacks to my farm where we turn it into compost. It took two journeys with my pick up. This is not the end of the job. The volunteers will be replanting the flowerbeds shortly.