Leapfrogging in style

Yesterday there was a by-election in the Newcastle City Council ward of Throckley, Walbottle and Newburn. Yet again, it was another Reform resignation after just a few weeks in the role of councillor. The ward itself was comfortably held by Labour until their near wipe out in Newcastle. From a council Labour had run with a significant majority, they were reduced to two. But with the Burnham Bounce and the boost that can be gained by starting in second place in the ward, Labour must have fancied their chances of regaining the ward.

Throckley must have been the worst ward to try to pull off a Lib Dem coup in Newcastle. We were chugging along with barely a few percent. Even the Conservatives were ahead of us. Ahead of them were the Greens, who were stalking Labour who were in a slightly distant 2nd place. Reform had a comfortable majority. The margins may have been significant but Labour should have been the primary challengers. And then everything went wrong.

Instead of storming the Reform barricades in Throckley, Labour slumped. Instead, the Lib Dems were doing the storming from the back of the queue. In spectacular style, they leapfrogged the Conservatives, Greens and Labour to seize the coveted 2nd position. It would have been great to leapfrog in style by winning the seat outright but the Lib Dems now have a winnable ward which, if worked, could go Lib Dem next time.

The actual result (with the top result for each party in May in brackets for comparison) was:

• Reform 901 (1380)
• Lib Dems (Steve Kelly) 670 (150)
• Labour 534 (914)
• Greens 103 (432)
• Conservatives 101 (276)

The only party with an increased vote are the Lib Dems. Greens and Conservatives were squeezed right down. Labour lost nearly half their vote. Reform lost approximately a third of their vote. Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote quadrupled.

Well done to Steve Kelly who has taught us to leapfrog in style.